Member Info for FQ440MR

Guessing the big drop towards the end of the day is due to continued US shutdown which is starting to disrupt US aviation travel. Traffic controllers, although mostly turning up are not getting paid. The concern is that the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the risk of escalating disruption to air travel. Hopefully, they can sort things out before Thanks Giving.

Ok but was there anybody else on the plane. Heathrow and T5 just had their busiest ever August, so i think results will be good. Also, last set of higher inflation figures were driven partly by an increase in air fairs, suggesting that margins should also be maintained or improved. Oil has been stable in the mid $60’s, so not expecting a surge in fuel costs which account for 25% of costs.

I don’t think so. They are just pulling the low margin annuity backed investments. They actually hinted that they might send more of the higher margin investments to Aberdeen as they look to consolidate the number of fund managers that they use. It’s unlikely that they will try and manage the complex investments in house. Just another unwelcome distraction for Aberdeen to have to deal with but unlikely to have a material impact on profitability. In fact, going forward Aberdeen are now due an additional £35m a year from the £800m pension surplus, which will more than compensate for any potential profit shortfall. If the price stays low, then i get more shares when my dividends auto reinvest on the 23rd. I am in for the dividends which look safe for now.

I think it’s more likely to create a distraction than to have any material impact on profitability. Investments division have around 370bln of AUM, generating profits of around 60m. The 20bln is low margin, with earnings impact estimated at around 1%. This loss will be more than offset by the annualised 150m of costs savings currently being implemented. Turning Aberdeen around, is all about sorting out the Advisor division. They need to return it to growth and improve profitability.

Actually, it looks like the fall is related to Phoenix pulling £20bln of investments from Aberdeen. Although I believe they are very low margin, so shouldn’t impact earnings too much - but AUM will take a big hit.

I think that when the penny dropped, brokers decided to knock around 50m off Aberdeens market cap, reflecting the loss in their 10% stake in Phoenix after today’s 7% drop following results.

Often hedge funds go short in a company (selling shares they don’t have) to raise cash to buy into a similar company. So in this case they could be selling IAG to buy shares in Easyjet. Aside from investing in a basket case, the likely hood is that both companies will perform in a similar way, but in this case the hedge funds are betting that easyJet will fly slightly higher and offset any losses from an also rising IAG. It’s unlikely that they are just going short on IAG without an offset in a like company.

In the absence of any further announcements, shares will likely follow the market’s and having a beta of 1.3 means that they will be a little more volatile. But yes, Trump tariff concerns are setting the direction at the moment. Last time around, tariff woes increased volatility and drove trading revenues at ii but the concern is that clients in the other 2 divisions will be panicked into withdrawing funds. I am in it for the dividends and for now I am not too fussed if they go up or down. Long term, I think they will be fine.

Sure it can go lower but in the meantime enjoy the 7.3 pence dividend- but need to be in before the 14th August to get it. ii are going to keep on growing & investments are likely to stabilise. The focus is going to be on the performance of Advisor. Just have to hope that the exodus of funds was driven by price. Next update 22 October. I am in for the long term and will buy more shares once the divi lands in my account, Sept 23. JW seems to be doing the right things.

I think your ii numbers are a little out of date. AUM are 84.7b with 461k customers. AJ Bell AUM, D2C Platform are 33.2b with 416k customers. Agree that HL have more.

I guess they have until the 29th July to close their shorts. Results are likely to be good, so makes sense to do so. But then again, they are playing with others peoples money.

Aberdeen shares have had a good run the last few weeks but that's often the case when an undervalued company gets a deserved rerating. But they still look very cheap. Today's market cap is £3.5bln of which around £1.5bln is backed up by an £800m pension surplus and a £650m investment in Pheonix. That means the market cap of the operating divisions is £2bln. The 3 divisions combined made an operating profit in 2024 of £303m (ii £116m, Advisor £126m & investments £61m). This suggests a PE of around 7 for the 3 operating divisions. Given the growth potential at ii and the stabilisation of the other divisions, this seems very low. Half year results to be announced end of July are likely to be good which should see the price push further. Reaching £2.3 probably gets them back in the FTSE 100 with all the benefits that brings. I think this times the gains will likely stick.

Thanks drift; all good now £££.

I expect that we will start to see quite a few of the short positions get closed in the near term which should help push the price up even further. Best to close out before half year results are announced end of July. They are likely to be good & push the price over 2 GBP.

Well, unfortunately my key pad has a $ above the 4 and i can’t find and pound sign. But agree, it should be GBP.

These have recovered from a low of $1.20 a few weeks ago, to over $1.80 just a few days ago. Given such a run, it’s understandable that some will want to take profits. My take is that these still have a lot more upside. Around half Aberdeen’s $3bln market cap is backed by a $640m investment in Phoenix and another $800m pension surplus. Both bringing in around $95m of annual income. II in 2024 made 116m of profit and this is likely to increases nicely in 2025. AJ Bell platform has a PE of 23, valuing ii at around $2.6; a PE of just 15 would give ii a valuation of around $1.7bln. Advisor bought in $126m and investments another $60. Aberdeen is being judged on the performance of the investments division but this is becoming increasingly less significant as ii grows. At Q1 trading update, Aberdeen notified a big investment inflow that bought YTD inflows into surplus. Markets have also recovered in the last few weeks, so i would expect AUM to increase on Q1. Re using the standard Life name. Phoenix group rose from the ashes of SL but are interestingly thinking of rebranding to Standard Life. Aberdeen notified longer own the brand name.

When you consider that Aberdeen has a 10% investment in Phoenix, currently worth around $640m and an $800m pension surplus, the shares suddenly look quite cheap. Those 2 investments alone bring in an annual income of around $95m and are valued at around $1.5bln, around half Aberdeen’s market cap. III, is performing very nicely and must be worth more than $1.5bln on its own. At current price that means you are more or less getting the Investments & Advisor divisions for free. But clearly they have value as well. These should be trading around 2.40 and will likely break 2GBP once half year results are announced around end of July. In the meantime, we can expect an update from iii in the form of an open day at the end of June announcing further product launches. Happy to sit on these and enjoy the dividends with growth potential as well. Not a good time to be short on these.

You did well to pick them up this morning at 229.1 given that this website is showing todays low at 130.9.

You did well to pick them up this morning at 229.1 given that this website is showing todays low at 130.9.

You did well to pick them up this morning at 229.1 given that this website is showing todays low at 230.9