Member Info for FQ440MR

You did well to pick them up this morning for 229.1 given that this website is showing todays low at 130.3

So it looks like everyone is flying again. It wouldn’t surprise me if come May 9th that we learn IAG have had a record Easter and that they are seeing no let up in travel demand. If these tariffs are designed to open up world markets to the US, then one would expect more transatlantic travel to follow.

I tried to b&b 20k into my IG Index ISA account this morning but having sold some shares in my trading account, i wasn’t allowed to transfer the funds into my ISA account for at least 3 workings days. With all that’s going on, i wan’t going to wait that long so had to buy them in my trading account instead. I will wait and do the transfer when things are less manic.

FT100 Futures are up 160 points at the moment, so tomorrow should be the first time we start to see green. A bit annoying that they have gone down so much but still happy to hold them for a recovery. It seems unlikely that travel demand will have collapsed to the extend predicted. And low oil prices and the share buy back should work in our favour. Hey ho.

But oil is now also touching 62 and we still have most of the 1billion share buy back in place to sweep up the cheap shares.

It’s also ISA start day, so i will transfer in my 20k and spend it on IAG.

Banks are suffering and placing margin calls on hedge funds who are likely having to dump stock at any price to meet the calls.

Markets should start to settle soon.

To avoid paying capital gains, i tend to do all my trading in the ISA account. My trading account generally holds long term dividend shares. So come Monday, i can transfer in the cash i am sitting on from my Aberdeen dividends.

This is probably the one day that i don’t mind them going down again as come Monday i can add another 20k into my ISA.

A few smart buyers back in just before the close pushing the price a little higher knowing that tomorrow will likely open positive after todays exaggerated drop.

It’s a go with the heard day; you know that as the day progresses, things are now going to get any better. So best wait for the bell and tomorrow is another day.

If you are holding these on a spread bet, then you are probably right to be worried - if you haven’t already been closed out. But provided you don’t need to sell in the short term, you should be fine. For us IAG veterans the price turbulence is no worse that we witnessed during the ME crises. But so far, things have always come good on results and expecting the same in May.

Today looks like one of those fasten your seatbelts days . With Oil also down today, now around 6.5% to below $69, that has to help with lowering costs. Fortunately, we also have the Eur 1bln share buy back in place which should help to sweep up a lot of cheap shares. I would also expect to see an increase in transatlantic travel as corporates meet up to try and figure out how best to handle things. If Trump has it his way, then in theory all these tariffs are supposed to make Americans rich again (at least in the long term) which should give them more cash to spend on leisure. Just need to wait it out. I am happy to hold until we get more clarification on May 9.

That’s my take as well; holding on to these should get you a safe 9.4% dividend yield as well as share price upside. They look to be doing the right things. Ii on its own (when taking into account the 800m pension surplus & 600m investment in Phoenix) is worth the 2.7bln market cap. If they can turn Advisor around, then the shares should see another good boost. Investments will likely plod along but is becoming less relevant.

I just bought in for the divi which looks pretty safe now. I am not that fussed if they go up or down as i am in long term for the income.

D9, trying to catch a falling knife is generally associated with taking a gamble on a basket case in the hope of benefiting from a dead cat bounce. I don’t think AIG fall into that category. While the price might fall further in the near term, as that seems to be the fear driven trend; my take on things is don’t expect the price to stay this low for long. I am happy with my 2.77 average price and will likely add again next week once we are in the new ISA tax year. As WB noted, best time to buy into a good company is when everyone else is selling.

Looks like IAG keep having to pay the price for everyone else’s bad news. Going to have to wait until May 9th for some clarification. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see Heathrow’s March passenger numbers, although they will be down on last year because of the timing of Easter. But for now, all markets care about is the forward projections and for those we need to wait until May 9. But not expecting them to be as bad as the hype.

PE of 5.6 it’s hardly a bubble waiting to burst. I just picked up another batch at 2.59 bringing my average down to 2.77. May temporarily go down further but I am expecting them to recover once things settle.

I expect they would have been down today anyway, as momentum seems to be temporarily headed in that direction but some of the fall is also being attributed to forward looking comments made by Virgin Atlantic who had turned around a 139m loss into a 20m profit on the back of 7.6% more seats. Looks to me like Atlantic travel is still very healthy.

We seem to be good at accentuating all the negatives. Maybe it also worth taking as look at some of the positives as well.

1) 1 Billion Euro share buy back - with a current market cap of around 13 Billion, thats over 7% of the total. With the price falling, might get even more

2) Fuel accounts for around 25% of costs and with oil prices lower than a year ago, profit margins should improve.

3) Air Lingus comparatives should be better this year as last years numbers were impacted by strike action

4) Debt is significantly reduced on a year ago which should result in lower interest expenses.

5) Heathrow reported record passenger numbers in Jan/ Feb (adjusted for leap year). March will be down because of Easter but is likely to be strong.

6) At the year end results presentation, management said that they expected strong demand to continue and given that many book in advance, its likely that Q1 results will not disappoint.

It’s possible that recent events in the US will dampen demand going forward but doom and gloom has been predicted before only to be proved wrong when the results are announced.

I am in again at 284 and happy to hold.

But i would still expect the risk to be contained within the managed funds rather than in Aberdeen itself. For now, I am happy to hold and enjoy the dividends, which look much more secure.

I see; not sure is the answer but the 2024 FY accounts suggest that no new provisions have been made (and these would have been signed off by auditors).

Aberdeen aren’t a bank, so i would be surprised if they were issuing loans to Thames Water. The only major investment they have that I am aware of is with Phoenix, worth close to 600 million now. Some of their AUM may be invested in Thames Water but any losses should be contained with the funds.