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A deal will be done on Alpala soon as Lasso, US and IMF all desperate for Cascabel to be moving forwards with more pace than SOLG's self propelled Zimmer frame.

Mather has said that he believes there are potentially another 12 similar size Alpala deposits in the folio. Even if they hit just 3 sized Alpala's elsewhere that's huge and transformational. 4 x tier 1's potential. So if he's so confident of the other tier 1's then surely common sense says that you sell 1 tier one asset to derrick and use the cash to find the other 3... or 8!

The next cab off the rank comment I believe refers to 'packaged' goods. SOLG are looking imho to rinse and repeat what they have already achieved on Alpala. But for the market to give the strategy any value, they need to prove the model works and to do that they must 'sell' or JV Alpala. That's the plan imho and it will happen this year. The only question is whether a buyer (bhp et al) allow SOLG to take that route. Any Major miner with some intelligence will just buy SOLG out right and bag the opportunity of another 3 or 8 tier 1 projects for themselves at zero price as undrilled resources worth zero these days. Just relax, a deal is bubbling away in the background and has ben ongoing for months now. It's obvious by how quiet CGP and Irwin are. They seem quite content right now when you'd normally expect them to be ranting and raving.

harel,

Like you posts and informed view but your usage for pounds and pence is wayward. May I suggest you just use pence as far easier. Forget pounds... 125p is just as clean sounding as 1.25pounds!

Are you UK based?

The 30p placing (on two occasions) really should put a floor under the price. In theory, if there are significant south African investors will to stump up sizeable amounts at 30p, then you'd think they are savvy enough to add some more at 26p or 27p+

They could then sell their 30p shares when the price gets past that level and still retain their previous position if you follow.

Bids tend to come when various parties have had their feathers ruffled. We saw similar events when Franco deal was done. Like I said, BHP and NCM are not here for the dividends in 7 years time. Nor are most pi's. SOLG has to fund through to DFS and that might require a minor raise $40m or a larger raise $100m+.

Unless I am mistaken, have SOLG informed shareholders of the estimated costs or cash required to deliver DFS? And if not... why not?

Nothing like XEL, that was a completely different business dealing with heavy oil against falling oil price and an investment background that was anti fossil fuels. The weakness was taking on 'debt' financing. A better example would have been SXX. That one slipped up due to similar debt issues combined with development issues. None of this is surprising. Big projects carry risk. Rio experienced the same with Mongolian asset Oyu Tolgoi. For the likes of Rio (who have billions and billions to spend) it's bruised nose or nasty cut. For a minnow like SOLG (as in case of SXX etc) it won't be a bruised nose it will be a clean decapitation. Shareholders left with the lifeless limbs.

That's why you always derisk or partner up rather than going it alone. I think some investors fail to understand that SOLG can indeed take Cascabel through to production but in doing so will need to farm out or JV a large chunk of ownership or forward sales (royalties) etc.

Ultimately it all comes down to what SOLG's package which could involve Boliden, Norges, Franco and others looks like for shareholders against what will be an inevitable reposte by BHP and NCM. The latter is not invested in SOLG as a traditional shareholder looking at the business with 13.5%+ stake. They are invested in SOLG due to the assets and it's the assets that they want not 13%+ in SOLG shares lol! But the share ownership is a step toward that goal. It's a foot in the door.

Now... as I posited a few days ago, would shareholders ( I mean real shareholders and not BHP etc) be happy with 1% royalty and $100m raised via someone like Boliden or prefer a placing giving BHP and NCM another 1%+?? If I said a placing at 25p... then I suspect most would say FO... I'll take the boliden royalty deal. If I said 28p placing would you say the same? If I aid 32p placing would you say the same? If I said 36p placing would you say the same?

Personally, I'd welcome a $100m equity raise if done at 40p with BHP and NCM getting their slice. Any lower than that and I'd happily take the Franco style royalty and couldn't give a flying fig whether BHP and NCM are happy or unhappy. They have sweet FA in common with me.... and I'm a shareholder, not a super major mining business.

The deal was great and Oil explorers with great licence blocks in the right regions are in popular demand. I think the sp got dropped from 28p levels on the placing day due to some usual loose ends or overhang. Looks like that might have been cleared as of Wednesday as yesterday was much more solid with seller absent. Today, could see price back to 27's and then it should build much higher into 40's toward September spud.

There are signs of real pain out there. Look at recent reports from Lamprell, Petrofac and Hunting. WG update next week and one would hope they can be optimistic about EB sale completion sate. I think stating by end of H2 has given some in the market a free 'short' at the business as it was that deal which kept them on their toes.

$1.8bln asset sale becomes $1.65bln if inflation persists at 10%+. The sooner it gets done the better and the sooner the debt gets reduced the better the service costs and numbers improve.

Painful across the broader markets right now especially during the usual summer drift months.

Probably an end of month tidy up but 1.5m block certainly weighty.

Certainly looks like Norges are a 'friendly' and that's certainly a warning shot to BHP and NCM. Norges worth around 1.2 trillion dollars.

BHP worth a mere $114 bln.

Lets hope Norges keep adding and get nearer 5%. It's that level of holding that when combined with others makes a very significant difference.

126p target price but I get the feeling if they hit big there the share price more likely destined for 160p again. Not surprised the South Africans have taken more of a slice, as it's like getting a free exploration well with minimal risk as everyone knows that 2023 will be loaded with more high impact drills.

value equals volume.... predictive text worse thing invented ever!

How do you know the value has dried up? Majority of value now done after hours as mm's seem to struggle to get these done during normal hours. A real puzzle is that one!

"But the average salary in 2020 was 470 usd a month....."

Could be $1000 per month or even $2000 per month based on some skilled mining jobs. Lasso is trying to get the message across but the local indigenous people (mainly the leaders) seem to like to see the people under their control working for next to nothing. The idea of many of them earning more than they are picking fruit seems to be oppressed at every turn. Makes you wonder why?

Great news on both fronts. Further funds raised at 20% premium to share price although some components have a 30 days VWAP also factored in. After the JHL termination it was clear funds would be needed but to get the new cash raise away at 30p is well ahead of the markets view. 20% premium to closing sp is exceptional in this market.

With cash raise concerns out of the way, it clears the decks for a very substantial share price rise ahead and during and hopefully after the South African exploration well due to kick off in just over 2months. The upcoming well and cash balance is not priced in at the moment and I fully expect to see the share price heading into the 40's soon and hopefully 50's and 60's on exciting exploration results.

Remember, to get the best price you have to make the future buyers 'think' there's a strong chance that you can fund this development. If you want 100p+ then you'll need to make sure the likes of BHP and Barrack think the asset has gone to Franco, Boliden and a few other interested parties. If you want 45p a share or 55p level and are happy with that then you may as well hoist the for sale sign up and open the business to offers. That rarely ends well as it's a sign of weakness.

The decision making process for shareholders comes when SOLG offer up a transaction or funding plan which involves some of the above but some inevitable dilution. If the Franco deal is anything to go by then you can bet your bottom dollar that BHP and NCM will throw toys from pram and object. But after that, they have a choice... they will need to offer shareholders a better plan which I think all expect to be a low ball full offer for the business or a JV of some sort.

BHP and NCM could have sold up long ago and moved on if they didn't like the assets or what SOLG are doing with them. So why are they still hanging around? I think that's obvious to all.

So plan B supports plan A or plan A support plan B. Whatever the fun and games, soon (and I mean very soon) someone has to lay their cards down. Will BHP and NCM make a move first or wait for SOLG to unveil their funding plan?

I know it's been a long slog here. But this is firmly into the sharp end now and there simply isn't any more wriggle room for BoD's especially with AGM due in just over 5 months. The new CFO brings with her proven deliverability of IPO and large development projects as does Darryl. The experience is there to get a deal done that might just make the likes of BHP or another pay the full price that we all deserve. It's coming. Lasso needs it, US and rest of glove needs it and most of all, we all need it.

Based on delivering the updated PFS with likes of Tandy and Moran, SOLG may well boost the numbers by another $1bln+. Capex and current cash pile looks capable enough of seeing them through to Q3 end assuming rest of folio is parked or JV deals done.

The bulk of the $100m Franco funding was to see us through to PFS. We all know that cash pile needs topping up. Last time around we had the two main shareholders spitting out dummies due to the Franco deal. The big shareholders in NCM and BHP wanted a placing and based on the sp movements at the time, the placing level looked like 25p/26p. Mather didn't want to see the big shareholders get another decent sized wedge of stock at 25p or 26p so instead did the $40m exploration (outside ENSA) fund raise combined with the Franco deal. Mather was looking out for the little guy as well as himself. He is aligned with small shareholders whereas BHP and NCM are most certainly not.

So here's the conundrum... how can SOLG raise another $100m to see through to DFS (my assumption of costs required) if the major shareholders are against royalty deals and want cheap equity? In short, SOLG can't do another Franco... or can they? What would happen if they did the same royalty deal as Franco but with Boliden? BHP and NCM would be furious of course. So if all involved know what each other wants.... what's the compromise? It's impossible to please everyone but I'm beginning to think the recent strength in the share price (with exception to that 15% slide day which looked manufactured to me) might be leading toward an equity raise but at a price less dilutive and more indicative of SOLG's PFS positioning. $100m at 36p for instance might just tick the boxes and present a decent alternative to a Boliden royalty deal?

Might explain why Blackrock called back close to 0.8% of stock they loaned out or put into other instruments at what looked like 34p to 35p levels.

You never know, an equity placing deal could be done at 45p again which was where BHP took a decent wedge a few years ago. Now that would be a better counter to a potential less dilutive Boliden deal wouldn't it?

In terms of the regionals, it's more than possible that SOLG could or are about to announce a strategic partnership with Lundin or Solaris or Codelco (or all) on Porvenir, Warintza etc. Through a few more grass root licence blocks in there too.

Finally, if the new lady arrives next week, then it's feasible for her to get feet under table and be a key player in any funding talks. So I expect some interesting developments to occur after the EGM... as one thing is sure... SOLG does not run on thin air.

Be interesting to see if we get another 1m block bought after hours. Price very solid today so perhaps the mm's have a few million to print at 30p+ today. Pre ordered from yesterday!

The CEO is the ex COO. So it's about as smooth as you can get in terms of 'new man'. It's not like the market has a completely new guy in the role.

Due to russia war, governments in Europe, UK and US are actively seeking independence from Putin's energy supplies which is seeing a huge renewed interest in energy projects so sector wise all is good. What seems to be preoccupying the market is the near term and inflation issues. It's known that 2022 will be flat for WG and PFC et al. All profits eaten into by inflation pressures.

The sp is 160's and prior to debt concerns and market inflation fears or interest rate fears, WG were trading at 400p+.

My point has always been that the reason for the share price plummet and discount to 400p levels was down to fear of debt default. You see, you can't hammer a company down based on debt fears and then when those debt fears pass, then continue to hammer the business to new lows. Makes no sense.

The only answer I can think of is that the market doubts they will get regulatory approvals, doubts they can split the EB business out of the wider business 'clean' and finally... doubts the asset sale will complete.... or by the time the deal completes, WG will have racked up NET debt to $1.8bln.

FTSE100 up 1.6%. PoO bouncing back at 2% up. WG trading 0.5% up. Seems to falling hard on market wash out days but pretty reluctant to join the relief bounces. The EB unit sale worth approx $1.8bln based on roughly 25% of total business. Current market cap worth $1.4bln based on 75% of the business. Net debt $1.4bln... so EB unit of $1.8bln in for free?

What this might imply is two fold...

1. They need all the votes they can get so have agreed this to bank votes
2. If BHP and NCM not supportive then point 1 necessary.
3. If BHP and NCM are supportive - than incentive to jv or deal on a 30% farm out seems replaced by an all out 51% sale situation. Certainly suits BHP and NCM.

The sad thing is, it's pretty clear to me that the BoD's seem driven by their incentives to reap as much reward as possible rather than making the right decisions to shareholders. That might be a bit harsh so lets hope they are aligned with shareholders which due to NM being a major one, is the obvious assumption!