Member Info for Fortissimo

Currently BHP's cash pile is worth 10% less due to inflation issues. Their shareholders will want to know how the business is going to move forwards after exiting the bulk of fossil fuels like coal et al. In times like these, it makes sense to do share buy backs as better use of cash or to do M&A.

BHP have already been beaten to Noront and they wanted that one. Barrick and Rio currently in discussion with Lasso over various mining opportunities. Mmm... Lasso doesn't have time to waste nor does the IMF. Alpala / ENSA needs to be moved along fast and it's about time SOLG explained or provided evidence of how they plan to finance it. Of course this is a bit chicken and egg as finance discussions improve if the PFS addendum improves (which it will). So in summary, they delivered the PFS on time (as guided) but in reality they knew all along that it would be a temporary PFS with the final version being the one we all want to see. But that takes time to prove up. If they had said... PFS expectations for H1 now moved to H2... all hell would have broken loose. Yes it's frustrating, but we all want the best PFS possible. The irony is that the PFS is all about early packsack which seems to be the trend amongst miners these days. They want all Capex returned within first 3 to 4 years if possible. 5 years still acceptable but it carries more risk politically with changing govs. In a few weeks or months time SOLG may well deliver another $500m value or more on the PFS. But this PFS is increasingly looking like a downscaled model for a minnow like SOLG. Lasso and likes of BHP will rip that one up and start new with a bigger Capex spend bigger profits and equally swift payback PFS.

For me, the interesting dynamic is Newcrest and BHP partnership. Is there a real desire for both to partner up or would BHP simply prefer to gobble Newcrest up and SOLG at same time? It wasn't that long ago that BHP was said to be looking at a big purchase.... and I mean big! The name mentioned was 'Glencore'. Sometimes we need to remember that we are small fish in a very big and deep sea. BHP and Glencore are the whales and we are mere plankton. Plankton don't swallow Whales. Hence SOLG should not be looking at taking a Tier 1 project forwards. However... here's the point to ponder...the mix of metals are very very attractive on Alpala and a streamers and smelters dream. Perhaps it's all about where the likes of Boliden, Franco Glencore and BHP enter and fit on the food chain. Perhaps the likes of Boliden and Franco want to move up the chain? That's where we start to see interesting developments. We've has $100m off Franco. And we know Boliden have done a site visit. Now we just wait to hear the plan.

Copper prices down, Oil prices down, Gold prices down... anyone would think the Fed Reserve want inflation down lol! When will they stop interfering in markets. They've printed trillions of dollars over covid times yet still they try to protect the dollar. It's laughable but the damage done now in manipulating metal prices will haunt them in years to come as inflation will return with a vengeance when oil supplies are insufficient to meet demand, when gold prices surge and copper/gold follow. Lowering copper prices helps China's massive infrastructure plans (and the US). If China gets back to growth then it normally bodes well for other economies which may well fend off a recession or limit one to a very small period.

Lots of games going on out there in markets at present as the politicians fight to hold onto power as the 'people' rise against them when they feel the pinch.

Mordaunt looks a shoe in as Truss and Sunak just the old regime and part of the Boris clan. Tories need fresh face and new regime... or it's curtains at next election. Truss looks weak. Sunak looks even weaker. Mordaunt looks like Maggies daughter.

To get best bid or best deal at the negotiating table you have to be in a strong position and look like you are capable of delivering on the project scale required.

SOLG is a doing their best to get best value out of the assets and avoid a low ball take out.

I think Mather wants to rinse and repeat with the folio so perhaps a JV deal on ENSA likely although still think IPO of ENSA the best option. Notably two appointments today are Ecuador / Quito based. Important if you are ticking the boxes as being an Ecuador company for Ecuador. You can't run an Ecuador business from Brisbane.

Exciting stuff. Norges adding. Blackrock adding and by sounds of it Sean and co selling. That's what happens with the big prize stocks. Shares move from pi's hands into ii's hands and the latter get richer.

Mr Loyer is ex BHP.

Plenty going on behind the scenes here. NCM and BHP best chance with SOLG in avoiding counter offers is to seek a JV deal with SOLG. That's their best option. Going hostile just brings in the likes of Rio and Barrick et al.

When did Mr Loyer leave BHP?

Solid appointments. Feels like JV preparations.

It's what they call a round trip Bubble. May to June... the stock was 10p UP in a month as Norges and Blackrock bought more stock. Then in June to July it drops 10p. On a two monthly basis, the stock is UNCHANGED.

Not many larger block trades after hours so looks like the big boys are done for now.

What I find interesting is the blackrock trades. It looks like they bought back (or closed a short instrument) nearly 1%. They are no fools and know the market was heading for summer drifting and volatility due to inflation and rate rises etc. So why would they be in a rush to get that holding back to and above 5%??

My guess is that they know (like a few of us) that something is brewing and about to happen. Always happens when you least expect it. BHP made their first aggressive bid for Noront on July 27th last year. Might be a coincidence or perhaps it's the 'ripe' time to make a bid if you want to get it all done and dusted before Y/e as these things can take months to conclude. Noront deal officially ended with Wyloo on Dec 22nd.

Share price has been up and down between 25p and 35p a few times. It's the SOLG trading channel.

What we need is some good news on Moran and some more eager beaver buying by Norges and we'll be 35p+ again in no time. Enjoy the sunshine. Not much else to say on SOLG at the moment in absence of news. So quiet times. Then.... boom!

If you assume NCM and BHP are not holding 13%+ each of SOLG for the future dividends and are instead holding these stakes as a foot in the door then logic would suggest that they want the assets or a slice of them. On that basis anything that happens to the asset worth (directly) is likely to get them upset. That was proven by the Franco deal. The 1% royalty (there is a 0.5% buying back option) is a slice of the cake gone. I don't think BHP or NCM give a flying avocado what happens to SOLG's private investors or the equities shares etc apart from a 'control ownership' point of view. Dilution means nothing to them as they are always going to sustain their position and the cheaper the better. So in answer to your question, ask yourself this.... how do SOLG raise funds to deliver DFS and the early mine shaft work? What happens if they go with another Franco deal for 1% royalty but via Boliden? $100m raised without dilution is a great deal for bulk of SOLG shareholders and a poor deal for BHP and co. I couldn't give a t055 if we gave away 2% royalty on Alpala. Why? Because we most certainly won't own the asset by the time we get past DFS. Why take some dilutive pain now when the likes of BHP are going to get the full cake (an assumption or example for argument sake).

So in short... SOLG will need to raise funds and anything that they do which involves the 'asset' or royalties etc will kick off a bid imho as Majors don't like to see the cake getting eaten into by streamers or smelters.

The only half way house I can see is an IPO of Alpala on North American markets. That could raise funds and still allow BHP and NCM to gain a slice of the asset but not a controlling one. It could also involve other parties with Fortescue or Gina and co getting a decent slice. That IPO business could then be traded over several times and the fight for ownership takes place there. SOLG would of course retain a sizeable interest in the IPO. The value of the listed business would feedback into SOLG's main LSE listing.

The new CFO has a proven track record and getting large billion dollar IPO's away. Just imagine if ENSA was IPO'd with value of $3bln? Why not?

Repsol news on Beebei-1 could be incoming next week.

https://guyanatimesgy.com/repsol-starts-drilling-new-well-in-kanuku-block-offshore-guyana/

If the Chinese made a bid then it would be game over for BHP. The asset and folio would be gone. They got spanked by Wyloo (twiggy) and whilst Fortesque are no small fry player, the Chinese megalith would step on BHP and wipe them off on the curb. What some investors fail to see is the tightening on regional pro business mining opportunities. Russia and surrounding areas gone. Majority of South American.. gone or impractical / uneconomic due to huge lefty taxes.

In terms of BHP's future and major entry into 'copper'... where else can they go? Where else on the globe offers such a great opportunity. Barrick and Rio recently signing deals or about to with Lasso and as we know... getting new licences in Ecuador is not easy due to indigenous / green warriors.

100p a sharer for SOLG is peanuts. Not far off $3bln, but the opportunities in that folio almost guarantees that paid back within 5 years. That leaves 45 years+ of very economic profits and easy reinvestment.

Chinese already big in Ecuador and more than ready to build Alpala's export pipeline.

Patience required. Not much longer to go.

Bob did you write this 3 weeks ago?

"“Joint BHP-Newcrest bid for SolGold 'within months”15 Jun 2022 08:15
Well I hope it’s worth the wait for the update on Porvenir. Hopefully good news is coming.
It doesn’t worry me if no bid appears this month. I’ll like to see FMG accumulate some shares in Solgold, to put the ****s up BHP.

END

Next we'll have Sean ranting and raving bout the share price rising 10% in last 2 days. It's juts not cricket is it!

Grumble when it drifts down and grumble when it zooms up. You couldn't make it up. SOLG BoD's must laughing their heads off.

conotetas,

A media channel (well respected) cited a BHP and NCM get together a while ago to discuss SOLG bid. They said in June or around that time. If you have bought in at 25p levels and a bid comes out via BHP for 70p or 80p a few weeks later, then you would have timed it beautifully and won't have 6 years+ or more wrinkles from SOLG's ups and downs.

Well done you.

For the record, I think we'll see a bid this year for sure. Why? Because the time is right now. Super majors cashed up and looking ahead to the next 10 years. SOLG would transform many Super major mining companies and allow some to exit volatile regions like Chile, Venezuela, Peru and Brazil. They are gagging to get into Ecuador.

It's in the tea leaves.... and now nests are feathered via the annual option fest... we are good to go.

If BHP make an offer in July, then they'll be following the same tact as Noront... strike while most are on their sunbeds but bulk of Aussies are in hats and scarfs.

Just use the filter button. It's free. Working for me!

I'm guessing here but reckon we might get a TR1 from them shortly. Won't take much buying to see them through the 4% threshold. They were buying with strength when the sp was in the 30's based on holdings updates via SOLG presentations and corrected periods/share price levels.

The reality is, SOLG will most certainly be back at 35p again but will all those pi's that have that echo voice in their had saying "I should have sold at 35p as knew it would go back to good old SOLG 25p levels"... be selling at 35p next time? I doubt it because all also have the FOMO voice in their heads which says "typical... I sell out and then BHP come in and offer opening bid at 65p... grrrrr... I got to live with that one".

At end of the day, you are invest here based on the likely bid event from a major. That's it. It's that simple. And support for that theory is built from the fact that Tier 1 assets rarely end up in a minnows hands and 99.9% of the time are taken on by super majors. The market is a right mess out there right now. All over the shop. Oil up and down by $10 a barrel. FTSE up and down by 3%. It's a lightly traded summer trend... lower liquidity equals more volatility.

If I were bhp, I would bid in the summer when most are not looking and hope by Autumn the deals done. When did the Noront bid come in?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/thunder-bay-noront-takeover-1.6119043

Sean,

When the stock moved up toward 36p a few weeks back, Blackrock were buying back their short. Norges were adding to their holdings and have been building a stake close to 4% now. Most on the BB were happy with exception to those that were saying it was going to 25p when it actually did the opposite and put on a 10p rise. All was dandy then. Then we have the drift back down to 25p levels and you sound like you've sold out be it in shares or in mind. At 35p you were not going to sell but felt ready and sure we were going to 70p+ or 80p+ on offers or a bid. Didn't we all. But at 25p, you feel nothing will happen now. You see where I'm going with this? It's called sentiment and it turns in seconds. But just remember, all that was in place at 35p levels is still in place. Nothing has changed. A bid will come because the asset and folio is too delicious for the majors to ignore. And.... SOLG needs cash to run... so a deal of some sort is being worked on as we know Mather and co do not want to do equity raises over $40m. Boliden might be involved and that could trigger your desired big phase. If you are in this for the bid and 80p+ offer then does it matter if it's 25p today or 40p tomorrow? Answer is simple. No. It matters for the traders not the investors. I think Norges will take this back to the 30's if or when they recommence their buying. And for the record, I also think Blackrock bought back their short (or called back their loan) simply so they could rinse and repeat the process and have been selling down again to drive the price lower. I bet we get TR1 soon saying blackrock have gone below 5% again. Games and games by them and it's doing it's job well based on the way your feeling.

I think they'll need to get an update out on Moran soon as they can't do any placings or equity raises or fund deals without releasing news otherwise it's insider information.

Last RNS on Moran was very enticing and positive albeit early days in the drill.

Would be nice to see the BB dominated by Moran news rather than dominated by Morons.

You know who I mean.

I wonder if the JHL bunch did short some stock on the basis they would get the shares in the deal (now cancelled) but did so on TSX?

Up 18% on decent volume of 280k shares graded. Very unusual to have such a huge discount between TSX and LSE so one needs to catch up as the other has been stronger for much longer now.

Share price is irrelevant. Your faith wasn't lacking when it was 35p+ a week or so ago or was it? When the share price drifts.... suddenly all the investors that have been for years sound tired and ready to chuck the towel in.

BHP must be laughing their dummies out.

Worth noting BHP lost out on Noront. They wanted that one and got out bid in the end by Twiggy. I think some need to remember that SOLG has the hottest folio around in Ecuador and with copper prices expected to be double what they are around the time Alpala produces, the downsize risk is minimal. For BHP (and NCM) they need to pitch it right or better still find a way whereby they get SOLG management to buy in otherwise they both leave themselves open to counter bids by Twiggy, Codelco, Lundin, Rio or Barrick etc. All have or want big interests in Ecuador.

So I posit this... would BHP/NCM get a deal agreed with SOLG that allows Darryl and team to continue to knock another few cabs out? Or will they risk it and go for the lot and open to counter bids? With Mathers holding and Tenstar etc DGA... it's possible that BHP/NCM?CGP and Mather holdings could prevent a company like Barrick trying to out bid BHP and co. Why would Mather side with BHP (you must be joking!!) because it might be the best way to see another 3 x tier 1's delivered and another 3 or 4 years salary for Mather and his buddies.

Sometimes the closest enemy can often be your best friend if all get what they want.