Member Info for Fortissimo

Addicknt, you know you have no right to go posting relevant and informative information or links to it on this BB. Totally out of order. This BB is for venting off investor frustrations and emotions from folk that are angry that they are not mega rich from their investments combined with some loners who have some mental health issues and have been given access to wifi/online apps.

Now lets keep it all non SOLG related if possible.

Sarcasm aside... thanks for link.

They all need a pay day exit. From Mather to Tenstar to Maxit ... they don't want to gain a free carry and retain 20%. They don't want to co finance it. They just want an exit. But understandably, they are not willing to exit on the cheap. They want the usual industry benchmark prices minus the regional discount. That's the way it is. Tier1 mines rarely sell for below industy prices. In fact, I can't think of many Tier 1 mines that actually end up being 100% owned byt the firm that discovered it in first place. That's very rare. A deal will be done and it will be sold.

I think the IPA will come sooner. Noboa is up and running now and keen to get mining moving. I think June 30th target is flattering all involved. But perhaps it gives everyone involved time to settle other issues like land purchases and tailings work. The latter was supposed to be underway last Quarter I believe so either they need more land/access or are waiting on Chinese to confirm pipeline route??

It's certainly at the sharp end now. Only 15 weeks or so till into June so not long at all.

Remember, CGP boys want their next remuneration awards booked in before an offer lands. So they need more deliverable news coming in to justify that. Hence, you might find the next RNS is the SR outcome. And that might arrive pretty soon indeed and certainly before any cash raise is done. Lets face it... you can't raise cash for future business if you haven't outlined your strategy as who wants to fund ops when you don't know what else needs funding or what the forward plan is.

So SR outcome up next and I suspect there will be plenty of happy clapping hands when that lands soon.

BBG,

Agrred, funding $1.55bln will be within reach of a SOLG consortium if includes multiple parties inc Franco etc. It's doable. But if I understand Bob's motives correctly, that's not what he wants. He wants a full sale and whilst one scenario may lead to another, the bottom line is that a full sale of SOLG is preferred and if you assume 50p is bottom whack... then that's $1.9bln for acquisition, and then $1.55bln for capex. Payback is currently 4 years, so it becomes more like a 7 year payback project for someone. Ultimately, whoever takes it on will make billions of the next 28 years+. But initial outlay for SOLG acquisition plus capex is still near $3.4bln. Ironically... isn't that the same as the previous capex on PFS2? Perhaps our interested parties said they can do the $3.4bln but it need to include the SOLG acquisition as full capex spend?

mmmm! We might be closer than many think to a deal announcement.

On a side note, if you look at the past raise and royalty deal done in late 2022, Bob and co clearly thought it would get them to June 30th 2024. If they thought they needed more then they would have got that away back then. So based on that, it's fair to assume that the 157m CGP shares that Scott has cited a few times as potential for future funding with zero dilution (as already in issue) would have been valued at around same price (in their minds) so at 16p, that's not far off $30m. That would sort a further year if they required it.

So if this is a game of 'playing for time' and remember, we've already been told that the Chinese have been kicking tyres for sometime now...then the way to put pressure on management is to suppress share price and limit the impact of those 157m shares. Royalty option is still viable and Chinese or BHP et al really don't want that to happen. So it's dangerous if they push SOLG into doing another royalty... that in effect counters the argument above. But overall, I think it's clear that this has run longer than Bob previously imagined. Chinese new year ends next week so you never know... news might drop when you least expect it .. bit like today's PFS.... not many thought that was coming until late March.

Personally, I think on basis of PFS today, Scott is welcome to part of his 30m bonus shares at 17p. But future awards should be zero. There should not be any further bonus share awards based on the sp performance and the weak cash balance.

SOLG has also been one for the traders and long termers and for those that do a bit of both. For the likes of Bob and Mather et al, they only really have one option and that's to hold and get a deal away. So in the end game, they are aligned with all shareholders but it's the inbetween process (as you say) which often feels like they have chucked pi's to the wolves. Not all pi's can stomach the ups and downs. Some with leverage or mis timed trades get burned ... and so they should as that's gambling no different to horses or fruit machines no matter how sure you think the outcome is.

Bottom line... the asset is back in the window and it will catch more attention now that many can afford it.

Furthermore, as we are led to believe, interested parties have been in the data room for well over 18 months now. So some will be very very advanced with due diligence and others will be readjusting their views or returning to the table.

I know it's cynical... but if I had no scruples what-so-ever and cared nothing about reputation, then I would place those 157m shares into my mates hands or offshore unrelated accounts .. double my holding from 155m to 312m placing them at 9p or something and then within a month or two... recommend an offer via some entity for 35p a share.

Like Bob said... no one cares about individual circumstances or pi's vs investment funds.. no one cares... but the only think that they all care about is making money. Some will make more than others. Indeed Bob... some will.

Remember, at 6.4p a share you all have a chance to add to stock if you can afford it. If you can't... that's your problem... that's Bob's mantra and a sad one at that unfortunately. But that's markets for you. They lean to the insiders... they benefit the rich.

Quite a few will wake up soon. You can't a market whereby 2 years ago it prices the stock at 41p or £850m market cap on a PFS with IRR of 19% and $3.4bln capex and then 2 years later have the stock at 6.4p or £190m market cap on PFS with 24% IRR and $1.55bln market cap.

It's like pricing PoG today at $2000oz only then to price it at $450oz 2 years later for no reason at all!

Market has gone nuts.

PFS2 was economic, infact it was pretty amazing considering the size. The problem was that by creating a PFS based on a Tier1 mine, it basically reduced the potential buyers to a handful at best. And neither one of them had to make a move as they knew SOLG could do nothing with it without their backing and wallets.

Now the cat is firmly amongst the pigeons as they say. It's still a big capex at $1.55bln but the pay back in 4 years and IRR of 24% makes the list of potential partners/buyers swell into the 50's or 100's. It's no longer a project capable for a only a few. It's open to anyone that has risk appetite and access to $1.55bln in funds. At this level, you can have a consortium of 3 or 4 parters each chucking in £350m and looking to gain around £100m in profits, possibly £150m profit if copper hits the numbers GS and others predict.

Remember, BHP paid $6.4bln for Oz minerals and the capex on some of their projects is in the billions. On a comparable basis, whilst there is more risk via Ecuador, SOLG's folio and ENSA could far excel anything BHP can make out of Oz Minerals.

Just remember the last time SOLG issued a PFS, the shareprice was 30p rangs and rose to test 41p. It then stayed in that 30p channel for a few weeks. SOLG only had 85% of ENSA then.

Now look, we have 100% ENSA and a much better PFS with realistic budget.

The sp is 6p today. Yep 6p. So just let that disconnect soak in for a while. Markets are markets but the market was happy 3 years ago to price SOLG at 41p on a PFS that was no where near as good as this one.

The world's gone nuts!

So the 'early Q1' was correct then and Scott missed it by a day.

Can't fault the revised PFS. It ticks all the boxes. Would have preferred the IRR at 25% but 24% is very investible and 33% is the more likely outcome imho as copper prices rise in future.

$1.55bln much more realistic and an achievement considering the old $3.4bln capex would be more like $4bln right now.

I agree with Bozi to some extent... they really need to understand markets better and how they work. They should have done the MD&A on Monday and then issued the PFS wednesday.

There will be a few that sold out yesterday who will not be very happy with this news arriving today but if shorters have been involved and SOLG know foul play is underway then perhaps todays news release is designed specifically to catch them off guard and hurt them just like they have hurt us? Sometimes you get a bigger share price reaction when you catch shorters off guard.

This PFS is more than marketable... it will have lots of interest from buyers and finance players. Especially as it leaves 82% of resources untapped.

So looks like funding to follow then.

Well, one thing is sure, they have under 6 weeks left to end of Q1. There's then 3 months after that through to June 30th. Noboa needs some big news to bolster elections bid next year so he's motivated in big way so I expect red tape issues to get announced when 'strategically' advantageous...

You might get a scenario whereby you see

1. PFS3 delivered... sp nudges back toward 10p levels or 12p

2. News on IPA agreement circa April and sp nudges back to 14p levels along with interest rate cutting background to markets etc etc eg bullish for commods and QE from china as super powers fight out the great growth economy battles.

3. Then you get 157m shares issued to chinese for 15p/16p level. (bit cheaper than last time around)

4. Then you get director bonus shares awards announced etc etc 16p/17p (anything cheaper and there will be a fireworks)

5. Then you get news on SR outcome

6. Then you get bid approach announced

7. Then you get some proper counter bid action

8. Then you can leave this sorry BB and never return again leaving the greenline nutters talking to themselves

Might take from Q1 to Q3 to unfold... but it's coming and the market backdrop should be 'risk on' again once those rates start dropping and cash has to start working again across equities.

Not long to wait.

Absolutely agree .... it can't continue like this. But the pathway to monetisation clearly involves the Ecuador Gov, IPA discussions, tailings permits/land purchases and so on. Lasso's team seemed pretty good and Noboa's team look the same so it's frustrating to see our management team make such slow progress on all these red tap issues. I guess the key question revolves around where to cut off exploration and start development in terms of red tape agreements as each has implications. In today's RNS the Ecuadorian mining chief responsible for production wants the IPA discussions to include tweaks to the previous agreements. This stuff should have been sorted last year to be frank. Scott and Bob have dropped the ball there and taken way too long. Now they are saying the IPA will be finalised before June 30th 2024.

At the end of the day... SOLG can only go as fast as the management team allow. Fast and smart is now best described as Slow and stupid and Bob's notorious Bat is looking like a chocolate fire guard.

One can only assume that today's news is the 'bad stuff' and that needed to be out there before they could start rolling out the good stuff or agreeing next injection of cash. They could have easily managed the accounts to give a better cash figure but instead decided to throw in $10m into the quarter. That was more than even I was expecting and double what DBW and others thought likely. No sign of cost savings there if you strip out the comparabel exploration costs from last year.

Bottom line is... they are still tieing up the red tape stuff, cash pile is around $10m right now and PFS still on track for Q1 apparently. You'd think that was all priced in at 7p levels lol! But in this market, if they squeeze some a bit more, then they will.

This will bounce back fast when they finally deliver news that shows progress rather than promises and the list below is what we need

1. PFS

2. IPA

3. Cash balance boosting

4. SR outcome

Over the last 6 months... and based on today's news... they've achieved absolutely nothing. But Q1 should have two of the above sorted lol! The other two might follow aroiund the same time... who knows!!??

Ortherncopper, if you look at today's news release and corp outlook etc doesn't the below paragraph effectively sum up the basis of the Strategic Review and as such isn't the below scenario the obvious answer or outcome?? The point is, there are many ways they can do it and each one has merits or pro's and con's. For instance, as part of the SR, they might look at splitting SOLG into ENSA and then everything else is Exploration. Spin off the latter as a NEWCO. But what implications does it have for ENSA or the business as a whole. They need to discuss various 'slices of the pie' with interested parties. That's all part of the SR. But as the below para shows... it ultimately ends up with turning assets or asset value into hard cash.

"We continued our review of financing opportunities. Options under consideration include, but are not limited to divesting other assets, issuing equity for cash proceeds, selling own shares, and selling a direct or indirect interest in the Cascabel project" END

Certainly games afoot as the manner by which that 7.7p on Monday was slapped back down after US markets opened suggested someone dod not want this above 7p going into today's release.

There's nothing in today's RNS that the market didn't already know imho. The cash pile was just $900k lower than I was expecting and the PFS3 Q1 issue still remains as being open to intepretation.. mmm.

I think the only new 'news' that I can see is the IPA discussions and the additional land/permits required for tailings works.

UK recession has sweet FA to do with today's capitulation. The FTSE100 is up, DOW is up and markets are looking lively as rate cuts now look odds on this year and more of them otherwise it's going to be recession time and a deep one at that.

Today's SP action suits Bob and co though. If it rattles a few pi's and gets them ready for a low ball...then job done. It all feels very orchestrated from the moment they took over. The SP has been tracking down ever since. Chinese seem to be sitting on their hands rather than snapping the shares up right now. Either they are NDA tied and banned from trading or... they don't want cheap stock after paying 3 x today's price or.. they want it lower.

"But they have painted themselves into a corner with the need for an imminent fundraise."

According to the RNS, they are fully funded through to June 2024. I don't think a fund raise is 'imminent' on that guidance but personally have not seen SOLG's cash balance fall much below $10m before they raise funds and they can't be far off that level now.

No management team, not matter how crap (like this bunch) would run the cash down to $2m level (eg about May 2024) and then seek cash.

I think they already have a buyer for the 157m shares which if placed at 10p levels would raise $18m. That would be a shambles and complete failure on management team but compared to zero finance raised and admin, some will say a good result. If the 157m shares go to Bob and his crew, then I seriously think he's going to come into all kinds of flack as it looks orchestrated to suit his own means. Stuff like that will have investors reaching for baseball bats rather than the other way around and Bob getting his bat out. Bob and Scott know exactly what they are doing to the sp with the lack of news on the SR, IPA, Porvenir, zero exploration and so on. They would know very well that it would drive the sp to multi year lows.

Whilst 14m volume is better than usual, the fact stands which is that's not even a £1m in cash on a company that has market cap of £180m now. So 0.5% of market cap traded??

That's nuts. Should be at least 3 or 4 x that. Some stocks on corrective move days see 5% to 10% of their market cap worth traded.

NewbieSM,

Not much has changed from yesterday. The story remains the same. If anything, an outcome to the Strategic Review could arrive soon and will hardly come as a surprise of they say they are seeking a sale of ENSA. But the market might like the fact that SOLG have at long last admitted it.

Noront Resources was rock bottom and going no where for months at 20cents a share. Then came BHP and FMG group to the rescue offering to put shareholders out of the misery for 55 cents a share. Whoop whoop...and then another offer at 77 cents came in. And then the final knock out winning bid arrived at 110 cents.

So don't worry about the share price. It will realign to the value of the asset or the first bid when that arrives. Never before has the mining industry left a Tier1 asset on the shelf... they always get mined because the profits are very appealing.

Copper boon around the corner and there's no chance ENSA will be left to gather dust. Tier1 discoveries are very rare. But yes .. they can cost billions to mine... so they don't suit everyone and ony a select few with deep pockets can make them work. Luckily, we have 3 of those players as major shareholders... I wonder why that is?

And last of all... if you are in any doubt over the assets, ask Franco Nevada (industry experts) or Osisko... as between them they happily chucked $150m into SOLG and they'll lose that cash if ENSA is not developed. It will happen.

This is a £200m+ market cap biz or was... and 6m traded at 6p equates to just £360k trading hands.

Some might be margin stock so weight might be higher but lets face it... this should be seeing 30m+ traded with ease especially on the 'news event' days.

Looks like the big boys are going no where. Just pi's flipping and flapping around.

Snowman, some of those parties have restraints on IRR's. Some can't touch sub 20% on base case. Some need 25% before they can even look at it. Hence, they will draw more interest if they can get the IRR up to 25% on the base case (lower numbers). That would move mid case somewhere near 27% to 28%. That's mighty attractive in the investment mining community.

"PFS3 isn't going to change a thing either imho."

I disagree on that one snowman. If you mean change the sp near term as a catalyst, then yes it might do very little. But in terms of selling or doing deals on ENSA, it should open the door to quite a few interested parties that were previously locked out due to the $3bln required capex. Drop that to $1bln or $1.4bln and suddenly you have an asset which can be taken on by entities that are not super majors or chinese state related etc. That will make Chinese or BHP et al more nervous and less able to boss SOLG around. I think that's the idea of the PFS3. It alos opens the door to consortium finance deals with Franco and others.

So the PFS3 is of importance in many ways but the market might not work that out for a while until an offer lands. At the moment, the market thinks a $3bln project is the last thing anyone wants right now. It's tight out there right now and finance costs are high.