Member Info for Fortissimo

I think you'll find Bob has taken out more than he has put in.

That's the reality here. Bob is coining it in and able to lower his average when many investors are not in the same position. I'm lucky enough to be able to add stock when it appeals but others have been diluted and left hung to dry by Bob's strategy to go into some kind of hermit like existence which mirrors exactly what they did at CGP... just sit and hide behind a hollow company waiting for a bid or money event. CGP did zero over the years.

And that's markets for you! Completely useless valuation tool. It comes down to the asset and what someone will pay. That's SOLG's value. When Bob delivers the offer... the market will react accordingly... but it's currently Bob's ability to secure a deal at near zero. And that's fair enough as in the right hands ... deals get done. In the wrong hands... they just end up in a stalemate going no where.

And throw in metal prices... some at all time highs too.

So almost everything is related to SOLG is near multi year highs.. market... metals... and copper boom around the corner.

When SOLG were last at near term sp highs of 42p, POG was $1350oz nearly 50% cheaper. The Dow was 25% lower.

SOLG did not own 100% ENSA. SOLG were some distance behind where they are now with red tape gov permits and awards.

Put in simple terms... SOLG has more reason to be 42p+ today than it did back in 2021.

It's fair to say that the 'pinch' post covid has removed alot of capital from PI's pockets. The pool of money coming into the smaller companies or higher risk investments is greatly reduced. Combine that with the higher rates landscape and many are able to get 5%+ or even 10%+ for riskier NON specific market based investments or alternatives to equities etc.

The big money in equities is going elsewhere. The S&P and DOW are at or near all time highs... yep the highest level they have ever been. Against that SOLG is at it's lowest level for years. And it's not the only one.

It's a great time for the bigger fish to swallow the smaller fish. In fact a much better time than when BHP took OZ minerals out and much better time than when Newmont took NCM out.

And BHP and NMM waited another year they would have got them alot cheaper imho.

So timing is not always nailed on for even the bigger M&A experts. But it's bargain basement time across mining sector for sure.

The Italian,

Well, if you are not naive why are you aligning the share price today with the prospects of a takeover or monetisation event?

It has nothing to do with trading mentality... that's a different subject entirely. You were suggesting that at 7p... there is no sign of a takeover.

Like I said... many examples out there where the takeover comes when you least expect it and lets face it ... the markets of today ... especially LSE are a bit of a joke. Look at ARM news today as an example. The IPO was set at $65bln... and a few days after listing the stock is $125bln.

How can the market get the IPO valuation sooooooo wrong to the tune of $60bln lol!

TheItalian,

Noront was 21 cents before they got a takeover appoach from BHP. That ended up at 110cents winning bid.

You are naive if you think the share price is an indicator of whether a bid is imminent or not unles you are suggesting SOLG is a leaky ship?

Always darkest before dawn

and dawn is coming for Scott and co.

You also have to take it in the context it was given which is that it followed previous guidance from SOLG that PFS would be in Q1 2024.

So the update on Dec 14th in that context most certainly confirms that it is earlier than last guidance... hence early Q1 rather than late Q1.

Keep it simple

Madpunter, you read it wrong I'm afraid.

Here's the exact line. Let me know if you still think you read it right>

"""Expected to be released early in the first quarter of 2024"""

Cash balance as of Sept 30th 2023 was $22.9m based on last MD&A. They were running at a burn rate of about $3m to $4m in that Q. Previous quarters they were running much higher at $5m+. Over the period following Scott's apparent cash cutting exercise, SOLG have burned through over $70m in cash and did that doing ZERO exploration.

So if you assume they have burned around $3m ish per month in Q4, then Dec 31st cash balance should be around $13m $15m level.

Throw in Jan and current cash balance likely around $12m to $14m range.

The auditors usually sign off accounts befoee end of March 31st, and I can't see how SOLG can get teh thumbs up on a going concern basis with just $10m in cash left (or lower by end of March).

Don't worry though, Bob and his mates will come to the rescue and take 157m shares at 8p raising $15m, and give SOLG a life line to DEC 31st 2024. Very nice of him.

The screw is turning in so many ways on the CGP boys as they continue to underperform previous management and under deliver. Where's the fecking strategic review results?

ByronBayGold, according to Scott and the SOLG board, they have told you it will be ready in EARLY Q1.

You need to learn to read simple RNS's and stop trying to invent things based on your rather loose understanding of timelines involved.

So in December, Scott issued an RNS saying 'early Q1' for the PFS. So that bascially meant... Jan 1st to Feb 15th.

Now, out of those 6 weeks... which would you have thought it most likely? Week 1? or Week 4? Nah... it's week 6 of course...

And if it's week 7... well.. that will be poor but not end of the world. If it's week 8, well that's looking a bit shoddy and if week 9... well.. Scott's proven to the market that he is infact exactly as they thought... which is pretty useless at giving guidance of any sort and confidence in him is zero as witnessed by the multi year lows on the sp.

Come on Scott, prove the market wrong. Get the PFS out as promised. Get the strategy review outcome out as long overdue. And get some guidance out on what SOLG are doing after PFS. What's the forward plan?

If a company is doing 'zero' then it's got zero to update.

That's the reality here. They've burned through $85m and we've got zero to show for it apart from a reduced head count and a bucket load of redunancy deals.

Meanwhile, Bob and co make millions out of funding SOLG.

Just wait for the next royalty deal to come and Bob snaffles another $5m+ fee

Could happen. One thing we do know is that a cash raise is due in H1 whether that comes via royalty deal or via placing the 157m CGP shares... they'll need to start ramping SOLG with good news otherwise Scott's in real trouble. Royalty deal looks odds on as the equity is so low it makes zero sense.

But like I said a while ago... it depends on Bob's greed. Will he place those CGP shares into his own hands at a cheap price and then get a sale sorted? He almost doubles his holding and reduces his average in doing so. mmm.

Orphencopper,

Not sure what you mean? The original PFS was printed May 2022. If using US inflation numbers for 2022, then 6.5% would be baked in.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Today, if they publish using 2024 US inflation numbers, then you will be lookint at around 3.5%.

Hence why they have waited for figures to drop before publishing.

In simple terms, US inflation has halved since the last time SOLG issued a PFS.

Ortherncopper, the inflation story doesn't really apply much going forwards as I suspect it will be US dollar based PFS with metal prices in dollars as well. On that basis, inflation of 2%+ or even 3% is not going to be a country mile from the last PFS.

Metal prices should be same as last PFS although POG might be up a bit.

If the phased mine plan is based on 5 to 6 years mine life, then it's not going to require £2bln capex. A bit of common sense required. It's all about IRR so if Alpala phased plan is based on 4 or 5 phases of 5 to 6 year production, then in theory phase two would need to kick off after year 3 if assuming a 2 year build out. Lower block cave work likely to be required alongside with shaft work tests etc going on while first phase underway.

This will not be a massive money generator based on Phase 1 imho. But even an IRR on lower risk of 25%+ is very very attractive especially if phase 2 is derisked along the way as it effectively becomes phae 1&2 (or 10 to 12 plan) mid way through phase 1 and then that starts to generate serious profits for those involved especially if metals prices are heading where major US banks forecast.

It will be next week as there's nothing out there at all to suggest otherwise. In the past, when SOLG know that expectations are building and are wrong, we tend to get an update from some lucky pi who just so happened to have an email or ohone call returned and it was mentioned that it would be xxx month or a week or two late blah blah blah. So clearly there has been 'zero' communciated by SOLG to suggest anything other than what they told the markets via the formal RNS route on Dec 14th.

At end of the day... it's not a game changer RNS... just an updated PFS due but it will fuel the markets interest through the increased likelihood, that Alpala phase 1 is attractive to funding partners that are not just super majors or chinese National firms. Open the doors to self funding although none of us want that. But if capex around £1bln, then it's looking far more likely to see a deal struck than if it were £3bln capex and there's only a handful of interested parties.

Of course, one of the bigger mining firms may make a move to counter offer if they want Alpala themselves but they are not going throw their hat into the ring until they see a very real prospect of the asset slipping away into another's hands.

I think the market would be far more excited if the PFS was accompanied with a bullish update based on them having a number of interested parties willing to stump up the £1bln. Then it becomes even more credible. If you remember, Mather said a while ago that it was not out of the question that Franco could deliver up to $1bln in funding or something along those lines. That's still quite likely but the slice of pie they require will likely be far higher than before.

Exploration is the key to growth so post PFS update... what are Scott and team going to be doing?? If the words 'further optimisation of PFS' crop up, then I will be proper grumpy. It's time to move the business forward after having the breaks put on for almost 2 years now.

MD&A due next week is for the period up to Dec 31st 2023. Scott said via formal RNS on Dec 14th that PFS expected due for release 'early Q1'.

So apart from the AGM event... there's not much inbetween to effect the Dec 14th guidance and the MD&A should confirm on track for early Q1. The corp update in early Jan also didn't change guidance so all on track. Next week a big week in SOLG's life and a test of Scott's running of the business as he finally delivers what he has promised to do for the last 6 months+. Apart from that PFS... he's not done much at all apart from burn through $85m in cash. Embarrassing and the market has zero faith in him looking at the sp.

I can't see any key information being included in the MD&A apart from the following:

1. Cash balance at Dec 31st 2023

2. Update on the tailings/ water disposal ground tests which commenced in September 2023.

When you look at mining across Ecuador and particularly in the south, Porvenir would fit perfectly in with the budget spend and be superior in many ways to Mirador et al. The only thing I can think of that holds porvenir back is the fact that anyone getting hold of it may well then not be interested in Alpala. Eg.. chinese might just be content with Porvenir.

SOLG has a huge folio of licence blocks and they are costing us a minimum of $6m per year just to rent the blocks or hold them. Over the course of 3 to 5 years, that's $30m ish so not cheap. Rock chip samples and low end exploration work can cost as little as $1m per year. It's not big bucks but it addes serious value to those blocks.

Chinese new year Feb 10th and usually runs for 8 to 10 days.

We might have PFS, strategy update and more coming in next 10 days followed by a Chinese deal. Feb could be or should be a game changing month for SOLG. You wouldn't know it looking at the sp right now lol!

There's clealry something going on and has been for sometime otherwise the most obvious thing would be to sell or JV Porvenir. It's not an Alpala but it is still an astonishing discovery compared to other discoveries over last ten years. Chinese like it sooo much they chucked $5m in at 32p a share.

I think all shareholders are frustrated by the slow progress but lets face it .... tier 1 mines take some serious due diligence and derisking. That's fine. But the same excuse cannot be said of Porvenir. That's shelf ready... just add to cart and off you go.

So the question has to be ... WHY can't SOLG get a monetisation event away on Porvenir? What's the excuse?

Porvenir is worth more than our current market cap right now. We have another 50 to 60 licence blocks which could all yield porvenir sized discoveries or greater.

So the criticism has to be firmly with management in that they need to look at all asset values across SOLG folio and not just hide behind the slow progress on Alpala.

Tick tock Scott... I make it 10 days tomorrow...for you to deliver on your promise.