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Added.
Mcap 100m gbp V cash in bank makes this a very good punt if they turn it around.
So we are in agreement then! :)
So going back to my very first post tonight. I still believe it is the finance target that is creating uncertainty and as we all know the market doesnt like uncertainty so is having a negative effect on the SP.
I also think there are plenty of other shares which are sitting relatively low and look very attractive that have meant many can go off and make alternative plays whilst waiting for the uncertainty to clear.
We know CF are a cash cow and will by some form get the funds which I suspect will be a mixture of profits and some short term load or equity raise.
I really do believe once this has been made clear we will shoot back to where we should be by now.
Anyway, long night. Night!
Ok, ok I'm re reading with a new shade of light and I have to agree I'm thinking you're right.
However the date:
In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants received in respect of non-essential retail closure periods.
This was taken from trading update ending July '21
Therefore I make it 12 months to make the remainder balance....
You know what.....
I think the penny has dropped with me too. So that makes sense. Again I will look at this again later as it's late !!
However I do t u understand the 16months when it says July '22
Can you explain this bit, what have I missed??
"If caracal are gold producing why cant they fund everything themselves from their gold sales."
Look at the AISC and compare against gold price. No money left.
Also you have to ask if this was such a no brainer why are so many dumping?
Hey RoxburyHouse
If that's correct then yes you are right in saying the remaining balance should be cleared with profits.
I need to look at that more.
P.s why 16 months, I thought it was July '22 or have I got that wrong?
To vague again. 100 usd/ oz saving is complete sales pitch. They need to be clear. I have seen them advertise AISC of 900 usd prior to the 100 usd saving so they now claim AISC of 800 USD ???? Belony
Then they release a vague RNS with very high AISC and add this includes several one offs to excuse the high AISC.
100 usd / oz ha! Honestly amazes me how people want to buy into smoke and mirrors.
Hows the 50k oz per annum target going. Oh wait was it 25k oz? Seems everyone just happy that 12k is now the target....
Get ready for a call for more money...
I was not illustrating the fact the net profit was reducing. Merely that even in the good times the Net profit from annual sales wouldnt have covered the 70m gbp.
There is a lot going on for the reasons of the drop over the years and I personally see this being back to 1 bill gbp company especially with the online growth which generates better margin.
All I am saying is that CF need to demonstrate the debt repayment and explain how they intend to find 70m gbp from.
Many shares have made excellent recovery but CF are struggling after an initial growth. This is my understanding of why the SP is falling as it's been in decline since they released this news.
In my mind the share price is drifting because market is nervous about the repayment starting from the end of this month:
'The facilities are structured to incentivise an early reduction of overall debt with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments are not made in line with specified dates from 30 November 2021 through until 30 July 2022.'
Once CF have confirmed they have debts covered and how they are going to cover the 70m gbp then we will drift lower. (Charts showing strong sell at present) IMO
The 70m gbp whilst I am happy they will sort this out if you look back pre covid you have to question how the funds will be raised from NET income
NET Income 2015 = 66.40m GBP
NET income 2016 = 65.70m GBP
NET income 2017 = 58.30m GBP
Net income 2018 = 52.70m GBP
This means further debt (at what rate) or dilution is likely.
Once this is sorted I see a clear path back to approx 1.50 gbp easy with good dividends.
I am still in after collecting from 30p range. It's annoying this downward trend but I have always planned to collect the dividends when they start. I have a nice bit of dry powder ready to try and catch the bottom to add to my holding so rather than get fustrated I will use the opp to add.
I made money on here, mainly from everyone blowing hot air on a share that was yet to produce numbers. When I saw numbers being mentioned of 50k per annum and 25k per annum I knew the rise was not sustainable.
I was also very wary of the AISC they were advertising which they still havent made clear.
Next up will be a raise. I will get involved in that and sell once again when it becomes inflated.
Easy trade this one. BoD are way to optimistic and everyone believes them.
Trading profit of 10m gbp when we are only just getting going again. Market cap 45m gbp with dividends going to be paid earlier than expected.
Lots of changes going on, online, closure of non profit shops and opening of new. No debt.
Not a Sexy tech share but with no debt ticks all the boxes, with a low p/e we have some excellent growth potential here
Great news. I guess when you have management owning over 50% they will perform.
Who are you referring to here? I assume it's your lonesome self as no one wants to go on holiday by themselves. Everyone I know is booking holidays and they are not holding back next year with more spending on their holidays to make up for lost time.
As for business. I'm flying again and most companies are allowing flights again. Video doesnt cut it in most circumstances we have all found out over the last couple of years.
All flights I have been on are pretty full, 85-95% capacity taken up.
However, the 50% discount is subject to a £110,000 cash cap per business.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/business/budget-2021-cap-on-business-rates-discount-makes-support-drop-in-the-ocean-for-large-firms-b962928.html%3famp
Been in here for several months now and very happy since the last report. Can see this increasing for sometime yet due to the cash it makes, well oiled business and dividend payments starting earlier than expected.
If only all my other covid recovery stocks performed as well...
Hi Leehardcastle: we will have to wait for the next update to see where we are but I will stand by my comments for the time being and not top up until we get the Interest rate down to 7% or the loan is renegotiated.
I also want to see the mine life extended in the short term.
For all those moaning about freight costs being the end of Boohoo.
Prices have already dropped dramatically, only in the last few days:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Cost-of-shipping-between-China-and-U.S.-plunges
Can you please now get a grip of yourselves
What annoys me is because we are so undervalued we are losing some great British companies to overseas investors who buy them up at what are considered very cheap businesses compared to others around the world.
FTSE use to be the leader of the pack. I feel we have aged and now a drag. Such a shame.
I agree it's very undervalued but I cannot see the rerate really starting until they start on this 15% interest. They havent started it yet and its compounding!The principal plus capitalised interest balance owing by the Group under the Facility Agreement as at 30 June 2021 was US$42,410,937 (30 June 2020: US$70,818,508).So we should get this paid off in let's say 2 years which is great. But in the meantime we have: The New Mezzanine Facility interest rate will initially be 15% per annum, reducing to 7% per annum once the New Senior Debt has been fully repaid. The principal and accrued interest/fees balance owing by the Company to the Mezzanine Lenders as at 30 June 2021 was US$73,314,888 (30 June 2020: US$62,014,689).So this debt will have gone to:June 2022 84,320,000June 2023 97,000,000So we would have paid over 40mil of debt but had over 25m added to our debt due to compound Interest rates from the MezzanineThat's assuming the gold price stays within its range and we make progress with the next phase.I get they probably had little option at the time and had to take what they had on offer. I was just wondering whether I may have missed anything about whether these loans can likely be renegotiated now they are proving their gold production. It's a huge amount of work they are doing just to pay off interest and all whilst us shareholders get very little reward apart from some glimmer of hope in a few years time.Whilst I am bullish in the long term I just cannot see any material change in the SP until we start on the larger Mezzanine debt. Hence i have got a position but will not build until more until closer to the debt payment reducing.If i have got my sums wrong or am wrong in my assumption please let me know :)
Private equity group would love this. Give it two years tripple the value and then sell it on as a leaner, meaner more profitable brand Tom someone like LVMH.
The brands name alone i would imagine be worth a fortune. As the saying goes 'dont invest is good companies at great prices invest in great companies at good prices'
TED at these prices will see me well for a good couple of years