Member Info for foresight

Had some time to think: 1) Why would Delek do the deal now - just before first oil? They are insiders. IF you are buying - you want the best price. They would have had to pay more in a week or so. But nothing stops them bidding now. Question why the BoD would recommend it - they believe this is best for shareholders. It must represent nil premium on what the SP would be post start up. How does that work? Control usually commands 30% premium. Its a great price based on a year ago - but the world has moved on. Maybe it is a fair price but I can't think it reflects the real potential - more just the current production. 2) The BoD are required to stay on - they are by definition compromised. The independent committee - really? What do they know, who are they? Do they care? If they turned the deal down and it went bust - what is their liability? Are they going to say yes anyway as its easiest 3) What if say 25% shareholders reject the bid - Delek can take control but not take over the whole thing. So would remain a listed company with a large majority shareholder. Fine with me. Would Delek care if they had the whole thing? I think they want to go and do some large deals with Ithaca. It seems an odd and messy situation but maybe they are flushing out predators and will go up a bit more from here if needed. I hope so as it is really worth at least £1.50

If I were bidding I would start low of course. So no problem with the bid from Delek. But the BoD recommendation is odd. Please point to where else we got a 12% premium on a non distressed takeout. Shareholders have to reject the bid and push for the full 30% that is normal. They need to get to 90% for a squeeze out - don't see that right now... long way to go

If the shareholders reject the offer then I am not sure the management can stay....?

I agree - this is not a proper market with an insider taking them out. if Delek had their own team here and the management were going to be fired then wonder if they would be so keen. They will get a great deal to take private and build and we lose out. There is no other way to view this. Why make an offer before the production - which Les said will happen soon. Why? The SP would be at £1.2 and so an offer would have to be close to £2 thats why. I am so angry!!

yes - said nothing new. Some questions about the value not reflecting the potential of new assets. No upside - just a fait value of current assets. Defensive - suggests they are in bed with delek

1.19 represents the discount to 1.2 needed to hold the shares for the time taken to complete the offer. Its a very thin discount. Many people will want to go now having made a lot of profit - will be interesting when they are cleared out what the price might do. So it is logical to be at 1.19 now for a while. Then rumours of a counter bid may take it higher. Or we are stuck at 1.19 until close.

Delek have no people in the UK and want this as their private vehicle. The management are incentivised to do a good deal for their future owners. We need another bidder - but Delek have already got 20%. They can bid more as well because they got that at 50p so average down price is a lot less than 1.2 - we are being duped

the management will stay - wonder what their deal is going to be... They are conflicted. This is a take private. We are being sold short no doubt

staying there - market does not expect bidding war?

Problem having Delek at 20% - they are strongly influenced....

What happens today - if the price goes above £1.2 then the market expects a better offer. Either way - this is the end game. I would imagine and hope that a better offer comes - 12% is as low as I can remember. It suggests distress. Below 30% is an insult. But Delek may low ball knowing they are going to get pushed up from here. Why give your best offer first? The real target is £1.5. A shame though as next year it could be a lot higher. Fingers crossed for a strong opening in a few minutes....

Demand rises about 1.5 million barrels a day. Decline runs at about 4% so 3million barrels a day. So need a new North Sea at its peak every year (4 million bbl). Decline in investment should mean the 4 million will not be met in the next few years (time lag). Hence OPEC say they don't need to cut for that long - lets say into 2018. We could see $100 oil again I think for a while towards the end of the decade. The world economy was doing fine at$100 oil so demand won't be destroyed. Everyone knows renewables will displace oil to a large degree if we can't sort the CO2 issue. So investment will be seen as ever more risky and given the long term nature of getting a return - may see increasing prices but decreasing investment. Also not many people want to go into an old, dirty, polluting industry so may not have the people to get it out!

Reality is that companies need to continuously feed news to the market and so hold things back. The market needs managing - give some indication of what might come to keep the price from completely ignoring it. Then have a warehouse of things to bring out on a regular basis - like discoveries to bring back to the hub on a steady basis. The management team will continuously feed the beast when it wakes up this month. So expect a continuous and steady release of new things - not everything at once which they can't deliver. There will be more tie backs and then a deal in another area backed by Delek. A new deal needs to material now to make a difference - so takes time. SP can easily go to £2-3 in next few years with a solid oil price in 60-70 range which is where it should be.

First Energy - PT £1.4

ating BUY n.c. Target £1.30 £1.40 Yield Implied total return Share data Shares dil., mm Mkt cap, US$mm EV, US$mm Financial data Gas, mmcf/d Liquids, bbl/d Total boe/d (6:1) CFO, US$mm Net capex, US$mm Net debt, US$mm CFPS dil., US$/shr EPS dil., US$/shr 2016e 431 $556 $1,152 2016e 2.1 8,753 9,109 $140 $49 $597 $0.34 ($0.14) 0% 41% 2017e 2018e 431 431 $521 $527 $956 $803 2017e 2018e 34.8 50.2 15,317 15,715 21,114 24,084 $252 $249 $74 $91 $434 $276 $0.61 $0.61 $0.15 $0.07 2017e 2018e £1.00 £1.00 3.5x 3.0x $57,790 $44,435 £1.44 £1.44 £1.44 Valuation 2016e Share price - £/Shr £1.00 EV/DACF 6.6x EV per boe/d Net asset value CNAV, $/shr RENAV, $/shr ENAV, $/shr $157,450 P/CNAV P/RENAV P/ENAV 0.7x

There are no analysts putting a £2 handle on this one. They have detailed models and are helped by the company. With oil in $60's and some acquisitions and developments - yes sure £2 is easy to achieve. Next year I think we could be there. I did miss BB, albeit only a few days... Been raining here so needed something to brighten up the day!

Deal announced today shows there is interest in acquiring north sea producing assets - Ithaca would be a good second deal. Consolidation and cost control needed to keep business competitive.

I understand there are thousands of JBs - and the bad weather has drawn out the process. All need to be fixed before live hydrocarbons can be introduced. They have had plenty of time to fix anything else meanwhile. So should be in a week or so my guess

I understand there are thousands of JBs - and the bad weather has drawn out the process. All need to be fixed before live hydrocarbons can be introduced. They have had plenty of time to fix anything else meanwhile. So should be in a week or so my guess

I did one project - we announced when oil was received in the tanker (which is not long after the separator of course...)