Member Info for foresight

There are only two outcomes here - 1) they don't get all the stock and simply increase their position but the company remains listed and we wait for the share price to reflect the real upside or 2) they increase the bid to £1.5 and get the whole thing. There is no way this is going through at the current offer - of that i am certain. So it's a no brainier to hang around.

If BB was around he would say you wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend!

There is no point saying any more than production has started because it takes time to get to plateau production rates. It would damage the reservoir to go too quickly. Seems they still have to finish gas handling facilities to achieve max flow rate. Suggests end March to get the news of how the field is doing but given the test rates we know early flow rates anyway. So I am not sure much more can be said but this is a major milestone and had we not been ripped off we would see a re rating to at least £1.2. So the premium offered would now be zero... I do not believe the main institutional shareholders are impatient and are long term holders looking for the Stella infrastructure to be used for many tie backs over the years to come. This time next year we would have substantially deleveraged and the equity value would be much higher. The enterprise value would roughly stay the same so we are swapping debt for equity. For sure this would be a £2 share absent any changes to oil price or production. Delek are doing the right thing by their shareholders - our board should have had a proper independent defence advisor as its obvious they were vulnerable. However we have just got the Canadian scam of a so called independent committee who are all good pals and have one eye on what's next for them. I believe all theain shareholders in the UK will hold out for a proper offer. But Delek are not going to leave a cent on the table so they may be in price discovery mode and prepared to keep raising to find the clearing price. They know £1.5 would probably work. I am holding

Precisely - they are insiders and made their move before the market readjust to production and strengthening oil later this year. I am sure there is a great story around d future low cost tie backs to fpf and the rapid pay down of debt. Everything is stacked up in favour of iae heading to 1.5 - 2 later this year and they will miss their chance as they still need to pay a 30% premium whatever the share price. It's market norm to pay such a premium to take full control. If te management were exiting now I would believe them that this is a fair deal but as they stay in for the exciting upside but try to evict us - it's disgraceful

They have a legal obligation to release price sensitive information. First oil is price sensitive. I think the board should be sued if they delay release.

Agree completely. It could be te company has held back on good news wanting to release in a steady way over future months but obviously Delek know what the real upside is. So how do we know this is a really 'fair ' deal for all shareholders. We are more in the dark than Delek. Anyway - it should be an outstanding offer and not just fair. The SP would have been £1.2 after Stella so the premium is zero. And it's standard practice to give 30% premium. I have no issue with Delek trying to get the company cheap but the BoD are massively compromised to give their support. Especially as they are staying on to reap the rewards that should be ours having supported the company for years through delays and low oil prices. Now things look better we get this debacle...

Is this governed by Canadian or uk rules or both? Really difficult to squeeze out in Canada I understand. Someone's buying and don't need to declare if below 3%. So that's 12m shares before going public

The people buying will be hedge funds hoping for a better deal and arb funds looking for a few pence. I do not think any of the main shareholders will vote in favour but I also think Delek do not want all the company or they will have done this properly. Also the exchange rate means it's 15% cheaper than before brexit. So they are getting it all their own way. I could see a slightly improved offer to get them the 50% and then they sit tight and build the business. So not sure why you would sell now - you will get more all being equal in the months ahead.

A vessel right next to FPF1 and tanker nearby - would expect first oil announcement next week. Will be interesting to see SP response.

tanker seems to have disappeared - hope wasn't overloaded with crude...

Supply vessel on way to FPF1 - help in hook up?

Indeed - what I don't understand is that the board believe this is in shareholders best interests, but few shareholders seem to agree. This makes their future position untenable. I think more than 25% of shareholders will vote no right now. It just seems the board are not really on our side. And oil tanker heading to Stella should mean news soon - what would the price have been absent the bid. Maybe £1.3. So will anyone be buying at that price now when the board is saying sell at £1.2. Slightly confusing I must say...

Offer is in CAD but the majority of shareholders are in GBP so the FX is critical. Small swings in the FX can mean there is indeed no premium, or even bizzarly a discount to pre-bid price. The business is in the UK - the Canadian angle is a legacy. Clearly with strengthening oil and Brexit, we may see a weaker FX and a better outcome. So maybe there will have to be a readjustment to the offer in any case depending on FX as who would vote to a worse outcome? If they had offered £1.5 and floating CAD equivalent this would be a done deal. Facing in CAD and a low premium makes it a risky strategy unless they don't want the whole thing right now.

Hostile I agree - but the board is supposed to be defending us against it... Not capitulating so soon

that sure looks like an oil tanker heading for Stella! Assume a few days to hook up and receive first oil. Would imagine an RNS end of the week / early next week. Les seemed very confident first oil in Feb and that did not mean the end of the month so all looking good. How does the SP react to the long (long) awaited press release. And what timing by Delek....

I wonder if Delek really wants the whole thing - they know that 12% premium is an insult. However, they can't buy more shares without triggering a takeover - so they launch a low ball bid, and buy more shares taking them to a much higher minority position and take effective control of the company. This rules out any other future bidder and the next time they make a takeover bid, and pay say £2 a share next year, they got the whole company in three stages - 50p, £1.2 and £2 rather than the whole lot for £2. Seems an obvious tactic. Only problem for them is a rival bidder which is unlikely as EnQuest, Faroe, Premier are all busy with their own issues etc. Its really difficult to put a price on this as there is so much we don't know about the assets but given management are staying on and in effect are on Delek's side - I don't think they will have been completely bullish on the story.... I am holding tight for sure.

at 50% they have control but there are certain decisions needing more than 75% so it is limited control. I guess they would be happy with a larger position - maybe the way the rules work, to increase their stake because they like the company so much, they have to make a total bid. But maybe they actually don't want the whole thing and would be happy with a much increased stake and even below 50%. At 40% they would have effective control. I think this is a real possibility and why they are low balling the offer- they don't want the whole lot and just want more influence and exposure ahead of Stellar start up. They could not do this after so now is the time to get more at a reasonable price without breaching rules - interesting!

only bit of good news is that it ill happen after end of the tax year so won't need to pay the CGT till Jan 19

Ithaca is massively leveraged to oil price hence the rise from last year. We have not even played out the OPEC deal and the market was going into deficit next year anyway because of the cut in capital spend. Three things could have happened - 1) Stellar on stream, 2) Oil price in 60s or more 3) More tie backs and good deals. We have been robbed of all of these. If the deal fails - I can't see how the BoD can stay. I just don't see how they can recommend the bid before the market has digested Stellar... Unless there is more bad news and this is a good deal in which case why would Delek go now. Any way you look at this - the timing is so bad and nobody has made any good suggestions as to why now...

Agree - I am just wondering how this goes on the LSE. We are not a banana republic yet. I am told by a friend in the know that they rejected a bid last year. The problem here is that momentum can build and people move on and get bored and capitulate. Hope not. I am very confident that >10% will reject, also very likely >25% reject. I am no expert - but less than 75% is an issue for a takeover - they can have control but not force people to sell. So they ideally want 75% or more. I think that an improved offer to £1.4ish will get them what they want as it will be based on £1.2 not the £2 it could have been. Its all a game of course - its a shame our team have switched to the other side so soon (BoD mean)