The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Botham
best you can hope for is that GE raise a pile of cash, then do a deal with Mosman, before some one else does a JV with them.
SP
I think one can assume that there has been no material change, otherwise they would say something.
digger
It is clear from Mosman's webpage that 155 is an application still.
that is why Mosman refer to it as EP(A)
to go from an epa to a ep means as far as I am aware, that a native title agreement is required. That sets out various matters and puts the CLC in control. That has already been achieved at 145.
From then on the company deals with the CLC, which I might add is what Mosman have been waiting on for many months.
That is my general understanding, might be wrong.
There is also aapa which clear the land for sacred sites I Think.
Nice 1 most of that is correct. Put simply the Falcon failure has impacted total production volumes and values a chunk.
The others are doing ok.
The Board has clearly invested much time into Cinnabar with predrill reports, planning, etc, and know doubt that has caused a defocus on the other assets.
I personally think all is well in the zoo, apart from the pathetic share price.
They have clearly laid out an agenda, and are busy doing it.
I am very confused why shareholders can not see that, listen to Johns last interview, he cites what is going on.
Much of that is stuff that will never get separately reported, like buying extra tankage at Cinnabar, but it does take time and effort to get these things done.
same applies to the workovers at G1 and G2. we have been told the plan for G1 and that G2 is more difficult. we will know when it is done and oil in flowing. They never promised that would happen in a few days, so patience is needed. Who knows, it may not work and they try something else. That is what management do everyday.
Having said all of that I am very keen to know about the new reserve report for Cinnabar. That is now slightly overdue (due to ill health) but I would like it out asap.
I wish GE every success. I am not a believer as I do not see any value it. 38 billion, what a bloody joke.
Hopefully GE listing will clear the path to a large JV ov 145, or a spin out as suggested, or whatever.
Mikee if that is the case, at worst Mosman own 10%, so that would be a 3.8BN valuation?
Maybe I understand that shallow wells like Stanley will always need work.
despite that the project made a strong 370,000 gross profit last year.
so yours and others ascertains that its a disaster are clearly wrong!
Yes Falcon was not good at all.
BUT, now cinnabar outdoes everything.
I think we will all be happy with the report that is due.
Mack
I think you are delusional.
Falcon was unexpected by anyone.
SP
you can I possibly predict a share price?
all I know is that the next well (if successful) means we are long term cashflow positive and can quickly drill and pay for more wells at Cinnabar. I think they have mentioned 4 new wells.
Just imagine
4 wells
120 boepd
75 oil
75% owned
25% royalty
that is over USD 7 m a year I estimate.
Marcos I dont think there is a placing coming soon, not until mid year imo.
SP
when you say silence is golden
what are you referring to?
I am sorry but you simply do not get it.
I don't read twitter usually, but it seems Mosman posts most weeks, and fairly well all information is already in an RNS, so what is the big deal.
Mac, your obsession with a placing coming is silly.
I feel before we see any placing we will get
reserve report
march quarter production numbers
and maybe
c1 production.
So please stop deramping.
Mac
I do not know for sure, but I am aware that drilling costs must be paid upfront these days, and there was a small placing late last year to cover completion costs. my guess is somewhere between 300 and 600.
but there is real income coming in every month, and workovers tend to be a small costs.
The issue as I see it is the revenue delay. for example at cinnabar we must have sold a chunk of oil in January, but as I understand it the sales are not actually in Mosman's bank for 5 to 6 weeks after the months end. That is the way the refineries do it.
that means working capital is needed.
I think assuming we sold 3600 bbls from cinnabar in January, (120 a day for 30 days) that means about USD 150,000 will be heading to Mosman's bank soon. 3000*75 for royalties*75 for interest*75 oil price.
I have not seen any sales numbers so that is just a guess as such, there may still be oil onsite.
so as I see it, the real issue is funding the next well, which John also mentioned in his last interview, and not the current day to day costs.
none of us really know unfortunately
Mac
the 27 July RNS does not talk about a completion bonus at all. It does talk about drill costs of 1 m and extra costs to completion on 0.6 m, as part of announcing the 10% joint venture.
I think you are mistaken on that one.
as for ep145, I would support a separate listing if that is what evolves.
Mac
I have never heard of a completion bonus on Cinnabar, where did you hear that?
as I understand it most of the drilling costs were paid upfront.
GE is listing on AIM, not asx.
Mac
I am a believer of the helium/ hydrogen play.
I am just not a believer in GE as yet.
The point I was making is any placing is (IMO) some time away when much more will be known
as I understand it, Mosman needs shareholder approval to consolidate its shares to meet its constitution and Aussie corp requirements.
So I don not think it is up to JB.
talking about it is just another way to depress the price.
Bit like there's a placing coming any day bloggers.
There is no reason for that and JB has made it clear that there is some months before a drill can start.
good points Nice1, but I am expecting the next production update in April for the March quarter.
Not monthly numbers; as that is what they do.
If G1 or G2 restart no doubt they will mention that separately.
even so 120 bopd at 80 is well over USD 3 million a year.
take out 25% royalty and adjust for 75 5 shares that's gross income of around USD 1.9 pa.
not sure about opex but given it is not being pumped, that should be say USD 1.5 pa.
I want to see 4 of those wells, that's 6 m a year. that excludes any gas.
then we will be moving!
I think the difference with Cinnabar is that they seem much more confident with the structure and size of the leases, thus they are upgrading the reserve report. That report should give a real indication of size which is currently 849, 00 barrels as per the report on Mosman's web page.
I am hoping that will at least double.
I am not convinced about selling what you refer to as non core assets.
I thought yesterdays RNS was excellent and full of good information
the highlights for ne are
1. solid cash position
2. very good Jan production.
3. They are clearly being methodical in planning the next well.
4. workovers at G1 and G2 are seriously being considered, with G1 TO BE FIRST. IF YOU LISTEN TO JB HE DOES SAY WHAT THEY think IS THE ISSUE, AND THEN SAYS GAS INJECTION WILL HAPPEN.
5. RESERVE REPORT ON THE WAY.
Clearly in my mind there is a logical set of steps being taken, even mentioned upgrades of the Cinnabar production facility will happen in a series of events as part of the long term planning. I took this to mean adding tanks, bigger separator, etc,etc.
I think your comments about Monecor are wrong.
I agree with your thoughts Reg. Personally I dont think C1 will be that strong, however I suspect the reserve report will be much better than 1.5.