Member Info for For2itus

Crash? What crash?

https://www.cityam.com/uk-house-prices-rise-for-third-successive-month-as-recover-continues/

Canaccord is one opinion. They will eat their words on December 7th.

"A range of brokers provide their opinions on whether you should buy, keep or sell based on the share’s current value. These opinions are from independent brokers, not Barclays and the data is collated and provided by Refinitiv. The brokers giving their opinions on consensus and forecast can be different from brokers giving their opinions on price targets." | 0 Sell | 1 Hold | 10 Buy |

https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/future/broker-views/

Lloyd's Bank https://www.investments.lloydsbank.com/markets-and-commentary/market-news/article/?id=15112244&type=bsm

Yep. https://www.mining.com/web/battery-makers-hunt-for-graphite-ahead-of-china-controls/

"A potentially bullish pattern appearing. First, gold has continued to bounce off its 22-year rising trend support line. Second, a megaphone pattern shows the price getting squeezed between the upper megaphone resistance and rising trend line support."

https://uk.investing.com/analysis/gold-next-upside-breakout-set-to-be-super-bullish-200592353

And yet regardless of our amazing resource, we continue to wallow at this ridiculous valuation.

Ridiculous valuation.

Hummingbird Resources PLC Share Price (£0.086) vs Fair Value (£1.36)

Source: Simply Wall St

Valuation Model: (2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity)

Discount Rate: 13.2%

Perpetual Growth Rate: 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.4%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Risk-Free Rate: 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.4%

Equity Risk Premium: S&P Global 5.9%

Metals and Mining Unlevered Beta: Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.12

Re-levered Beta: = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))] = 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.122) * (1 + (1 - 19.0%) (265.08%))] = 2.697

Levered Beta: Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm) = 2

Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity: = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium) = 1.38% + (2 * 5.91%) or 13.20%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for AIM:HUM using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Hummingbird Resources is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2-stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

AIM:HUM DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast

Levered FCF (USD, Millions) | Source | Discounted (@ 13.20%)

2024 75.1 Analyst x1 66.34

2025 92.9 Analyst x1 72.5

2026 105.97 Est @ 14.07% 73.05

2027 116.84 Est @ 10.26% 71.16

2028 125.72 Est @ 7.60% 67.64

2029 132.93 Est @ 5.73% 63.17

2030 138.81 Est @ 4.43% 58.28

2031 143.69 Est @ 3.51% 53.29

2032 147.82 Est @ 2.87% 48.43

2033 151.4 Est @ 2.42% 43.82

Present value of next 10 years cash flows $617.68 million

AIM:HUM DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value

Terminal Value: FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) = $151.401 x (1 + 1.38%) ÷ (13.20% - 1.38%) = $1,298.57

Present Value of Terminal Value: = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10 $1,299 ÷ (1 + 13.20%)10 = $375.84

AIM:HUM Total Equity Value

Total Equity Value: = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value = $618 + $376 = $993.52

Equity Value per Share (USD): = Total value / Shares Outstanding = $994 / 602 = $1.65

AIM:HUM Discount to Share Price

Exchange Rate: USD/GBP (Reporting currency to currency of AIM:HUM) = 0.821

Value per Share (GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP) = $1.65 x £0.82 = £1.36

Discount to share price of £0.086 = (£1.36 - £0.086) / £1.36 or 93.7%

DYOR

Https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/6512ae2c39ad9f961be9ed95/651678b16425ed24552e38a4

Https://www.mining.com/kodal-minerals-lithium-project-in-mali-unfazed-by-new-law/

Risky time to be out of KOD given todays "once our funding transaction with Hainan has been finalised in the coming weeks." RNS. I've sold and then bought back lower over the last few months but the funding RNS is just too close to do it again. See you at the top!

From the RNS:

"Kodal will be hosting several senior executives from the Hainan and Fosun groups in Mali during September as we work towards finalising our agreed work programme."

Hmmm? It would definitely be strange for Hainan and Fosun senior executives to visit Mali in September only to come back again in October to sign the deal. Surely the September visit is for signing the deal and a hand shake photo op with the local dignitaries. Fill yer boots!

It’s definitely close as the extension wasn’t to 31-Oct-23. Topping up on the ‘Oh no! The deal is never going to happen!’ dip today.

Foolish to be out of KOD over the weekend.

Request for Continuation of Voluntary Suspension.

Leo Lithium Limited (ASX:LLL) (Company) requests a continuation of its voluntary suspension which was granted on 20 July 2023.

In accordance with ASX Listing Rule 17.2, the Company advises that:

1. The Company requests an extension to its voluntary suspension pending an announcement in relation to ongoing incomplete discussions with the government of Mali on correspondence that it has received.

2. The Company anticipates that the voluntary suspension will end upon the Company releasing the above announcement, which is anticipated to occur on or before Monday, 28 August 2023.

3. The Company is not aware of any reason why the voluntary suspension should not be granted.

Request for Continuation of Voluntary Suspension

Leo Lithium Limited (ASX:LLL) (Company) requests a continuation of its voluntary suspension

which was granted on 20 July 2023.

In accordance with ASX Listing Rule 17.2, the Company advises that:

1. The Company requests an extension to its voluntary suspension pending an announcement in

relation to ongoing incomplete discussions with the government of Mali on correspondence

that it has received.

2. The Company anticipates that the voluntary suspension will end upon the Company releasing

the above announcement, which is anticipated to occur on or before Wednesday, 23 August

2023.

3. The Company is not aware of any reason why the voluntary suspension should not be granted.