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Doc, nice post from my perspective there are many many holders happy to play the mid to long game, waiting for that RNS that signals to the market that we've finally got the LP (rubber stamped), the rig is en route and we're on the way to producer, when yesterday the market perceived us as another explorer.
Until that RNS comes am happy to watch it drift but holding til then. When it comes it's another hand-wringing, head scratching few days ahead !
If you'd told me in May when the SP was touching 7p on only the possibility of the Block XX LP that I could sell that day, then buy back in two months later after the RNS landed that the LP had been signed at a lower price, id have said you're smoking cr@ck.
How on earth we're at this price today is beyond daft. We should be way above 7p today, and into double figures. This isn't MM up to their tricks, its good old fashioned manipulation.
Having watched this company for a couple iof years and been invested since last year I can confirm that the Mongolian government do not move along at the pace of other public bodies. We're slow in the UK at making decisions but the Mongolians seem pretty glacial.
Likewise hope you're wrong about that possibility but as has been stated on here before, there could well still ve one last step of LP approval to go.
Making MB wait until their refinery is built would not be very commercially minded in that it will infuriate the company and investors alike and I expect the Mongoliams are trying to keep MB onside
RNS Highlights
• Completion of the interpretation of the recently licensed Franklin Bluffs 3D seismic survey data
(FB3D), which covers a significant area over the Icewine East leases.
• Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO) analysis has been used to define ‘sweet spots’ for each play
to help identify location for the 1H 2023 exploration well, Hickory-1.
• Significantly, the Fluid Factor attribute has identified areas of anomalous AVO behaviour within the
FB3D area which could indicate hydrocarbon content and/or superior pore volume (reservoir quality).
AVO analysis is often used as a direct hydrocarbon indicator to enhance existing 2D and 3D
interpretation and improve the probability of geological success.
• Good correlation has also been observed between AVO signature, RMS amplitude and the
geological model at Icewine East.
• The Hickory-1 well will test the SMD, SFS, BFF and Kuparuk reservoir units, which are interpreted
to extend from Pantheon Resources’ (Pantheon) acreage onto Icewine East. The Pantheon wells –
Alkaid-1, Talitha-A and Theta West-1 – have flowed 35° to 40° API oil from multiple Brookian
reservoirs (see Pantheon releases of 7 February, 21 February and 24 March 2022).
• Planning and permitting for drilling of the Hickory-1 exploration well in 2023 has commenced.
• The Hickory-1 well location is adjacent to the Trans Alaskan Oil Pipeline route and the Dalton
Highway, the main north-south all-weather road.
At last AG and the BoD have gone back to the original Icewine with some actual 3D ( not some second-hand 2D) to guide them to a drill that isn't in the middle of alaskan nowhere. After a lonnnng wait as an incredibly patient lth, this has to be the best chance in quite a few years to get a bona fide discovery
Looks like all eyes are on Icewine-1, and not Charlie
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/88E/project-icewine-independent-third-party-mapping/15443816
Very positive, but now AG has to come up with next steps in the form of a defendable plan of action
Could be a number of things, and as an investor there myself i'm looking at it more long term but;
Agreed Jezza - no further news now expected til summer / concerns about funding the proposed winter drill programme / concerns about flow rates from the successful drills / the realisation that NN's strategy is not seeking a buy-out but is to go on to produce on a long term basis / that the long term plans are not just multi-year, but multi-decade
All IMHO and a good time to top up in the coming months.
For 88E the flow rates concerns could have a knock on effect if that proves to be an ongoing issue that NN struggle to solve
Moda, thanks for sharing, I read this article with interest.
Perhaps I have missed this somewhere (I don't think I have - and i'm not expecting you to answer this, maybe another member of this forum can) but there were two pieces of information in that article that were news to me;
1. "Subsequent and independent comparisons of the zone that was tested and flowed light oil in Alkaid-1 at “80-100 BOPD light oil” (see Pantheon release of 25 March 2019) against the Icewine-1 well, have revealed the porosity and resistivity of a similar 110 ft net section in Icewine-1 well to be higher....Given the favorable petrophysical comparison between Icewine-1 and Alkaid-1, the Company is optimistic that a production test in the Eastern Icewine acreage could yield a similar or better result than seen during the testing of Alkaid-1.
2. 88 Energy is in the process of finalizing mapping of the SFS and BFF play fairways onto the Icewine acreage and expects this work to be completed in April 2022.
In 1. I don't ever remember seeing any published 'favorable petrophysical comparison between Icewine-1 and Alkaid-1'. Is this speculative on the authors part - or have I missed that?
In 2. I don't ever remember seeing an announcement stating that the mapping would be complete by end April (this week), the company has said that the updated resource estimate at Project Icewine is scheduled for completion in Q2 2022 and no other detail on this (the article also says this) - have I missed that also?
Thanks and VGLALTHs
The next important news for the firm is due this quarter, relating to the external assessment of the prospectivity in the Icewine acreage.
According to the Annual Report to Shareholders, this external assessment "started at year-end with an updated prospective resource estimate to be finalised in H1 2022"
This is the original acreage that Paul Basinski was advising the firm on through Burgundy Exploration before his sudden death in 2018.
The report goes on to say that "There has been additional insight into the prospects of the Schrader Bluff, Canning, Seabee and Kuparuk formations, highlighted from the results of the Talitha-A program, which may have positive implications for the same formations in 88 Energy’s Icewine acreage. "
I would expect that AG will wait for that re-assessment to be complete before the next drill is prioritised.
The next potential for 88E will be on the back of "the external assessment of the prospectivity in the Icewine acreage" which has been ongoing for some time with an updated prospective resource estimate to be finalised in H1 2022.
Its fairly common knowledge that the company have "some insight into the reassessment of the Icewine data indicates a potential extension of the Talitha targets onto the Icewine acreage"
The irony being that the next funding could hinge on PANRs progress to date, and somewhere around the 2 -20% touted on here previously
It felt like they got that RNS out last week with some haste; drilling commenced 16th March then 6 days later the next update to say the TD had been reached on the 22nd (touted as 7-10 days of drilling activity to get to TD).
Unsure how much LWD data they had been able to interpret given the lightning fast drill, and as has been commented on here previously, they probably could have given it a day or two more before issuing that RNS on the 22nd.
Hoping AG learns from that and the wireline results RNS is measured and isn't rushed.
VGLA
Blackadder2708, I was interested in your suggestion last week that there may be separate RNS published for each of the targets. I think if AG decides to take that approach it may result in uncertainty on the other targets where the results haven't yet been published?
I suppose it depends on a number of success factors as to how AG plays it, 3 separate announcements or one wireline update that gives an overview of all 3 targets together.
Either way not long to wait now.
VGLA
Yes...board of directors...
Since Merlin-1 there has been a significant change to the senior management at 88E, as noted in the Annual Report to Shareholders (which I assume you're not one of, so perhaps not relevant to you?);
Page 8 - Key Personnel Appointments
o Mr Ashley Gilbert appointed Managing Director
o Mr Philip Byrne appointed as Non-Executive Chairman and Ms Joanne Kendrick appointed as Non-Executive Director
o Mr Robert Benkovic appointed Chief Operating Officer and Mr Oliver Mortensen appointed Chief Financial Officer
Clearly as well David Wall has also departed the firm.
I don't think its very informed to suggest that the BoD doesn't have 'the backbone to see it through' when so many senior managers don't have the baggage, or any responsibility for the decision making of the last few drills. From what I can tell from Merlin2 drill its going to plan so far so good. I'd give them a chance on their first 88E drill before rubbishing them.
Ecuagold @10:53
... and finally some half decent volume, compared to the last week or so.
If nothing else this RNS has stirred some real interest and this board has also woken up, today its more of a chat board than chat bored