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Fair point Ezhik, after all, he has been bitten twice now, once in Congo and once in Tunisia. Certainly would have taken precaution's I would have thought. Thorough due diligence required and expected. Certainly do not need too much local bureaucratic entanglement to scupper this one.
An important point to consider is that the first MOU back on the 4th September made clear that the exclusivity agreement was regarding "The Seller holds a 100% interest in an oil production asset located in the Atyrau Region" and was pumping 600 barrels of oil before closure, due to COVID. The question is, is the announcement today related to the very same asset announced on the 4th September. If so, AC could be deliberately understating the potential of the asset in order to increase share value when the asset begins pumping 600. There is a significant difference between $11.3m and $17m per year.
TYB - Most importantly, it shows we are invested in a man that does not sit around on his backside doing nothing. With everything that's going on at this time you would think he would take a rest and just watch the money role in from the court cases. I suppose he's just not that kind of man. Someone who never gives up no matter how many knocks you take, and boy he's had some hum dingers with Congo and Tunisia. Certainly no fault of his, just a bunch of bad luck. This South Sudan, on the other hand, could be a game changer and it seems he's taking a very cool stance. Definitely not over emphasizing his eagerness to do a deal, and definitely not promising too much too quick. I can't see anything wrong with co-operating with the South Sudanese, can only be a good thing. With Kazakhstan still on the table, South Sudan now waiting in the wings and the SMP result sometime soon, things are looking pretty good. GLA DYOR
As time goes by more money is claimable in court, over and above the $48m. The Tunisians will have to come up with a substantially good reason to withhold approval for three years other than, he found a loophole in the law legally bought Azzaouia and we didn't like it.
In my view the whole $48m court case is based upon the Tunisian Governments reluctance to give approval for, in particular, the ownership transfer of Sidi el Kilani 22.5% holding from KUFPEC and new wells for Ezzaouia.
One more US acquisition by the end of August will eventually, when all are completed, give him approximately $5m per year, alongside his Italian gas to energy $2m profit, will push him through positive EBITDA. Everything else is bonus money.
Bonus money.
Congo - $5.3m (already received $117,000)
SMP - $9m (already received $30,000)
Tunisia - $48m (minimum claim)
Plus Tunisian assets still pumping oil, accumulating oil in storage.
It's pretty obvious what he is trying to do. Accumulate US assets in order to divert monetary reliance from Tunisia to a safer haven in the US. When the Tunisian authorities realise their gangster style tactics are not working, they will have no choice but to either come to the negotiating table or pay the $48m. IMVO DYOR
Ezhik - A couple of points, first, "self inflicted by errors made by Zen". Where on earth did you get that from?. Alongside Deano and Flash, You must be the only three people alive who failed to grasp the real reason why Zenith cannot sell it's oil. The Russian loving Tunisians are buying up cheap Russian oil like it's going out of fashion. In so doing commits their allegiance to the Putinites by restricting western oil trades out of the country, and that my friend is against the laws of international trade.
Secondly, if your previous post was aimed at me I would suggest you go back to reading English. This time include the meaning of the word possible.
A minimum of $48m on a possible no win no fee basis can't be bad. Plus $9m from SMP, plus $5.3m from SMPC, all looking good. Then we have the Oklahoma deal and nine other US deals in the pipeline with Benin and Yemen on the back burner. We may also get to hear why it's taken the Tunisian Ministry three years to approve the Sidi El Kilani, KUFPEC deal. Multiple Millions to claim back on this deal alone.
He laid his life on the line for six months, in the middle of Covid, in order to clinch the deal with AAOG when no other CEO would take the risk. I'm sure you see things differently Deano, maybe you can suggest a more appropriate level of commitment, maybe even a visit to the morgue.