Member Info for fleccy

"well we did get a mention on Proactive Investors Market news, and it certainly sound more optimistic than what's been toted and talk about on here today'' take a listen it don't sound like doom to me"

I suspect QBT pay Proactive for the their promotional (interview) videos, if that's the case mentions like this are likely part of the service.

PRK I think you're ignoring the scale of BT and the fact that they'll be running fully converged Fixed line and mobile networks, with less buildings and a fraction of the current staff. They're developing Quantum secure products to sell to Enterprise/Government and none of the Altnets will be able to compete on Openreach wholesale pricing once OFCOM releases the regulatory shackles. If you don't agree with my take on BT's future then it's simple, don't invest there.

Also BT is arguably undervalued based on it's breakup value, with Openreach touted to be worth the current market cap in its own right, so there's an investment case on that alone; Add to that the value locked into the Core Network, EE and the fibre assets Openreach manage on BT's behalf, BT could be worth more than twice the current £20 Billion market cap.

I have no idea how things like this might affect BT's share price going forward, since BT's historic share price movements don't appear to follow logic. In a functional market you'd expect BT to do well if the competition is stalling and you'd also expect TalkTalk's pain is being felt across Altnets in general, because they're all built on debt with limited income/margin to cover operational costs.

I focus on cost savings off the back of the move to a fully converged core network, carrying both data and video. BT has telegraphed that they've passed peak capex in relation to FTTP and 5G rollout, so the saving's over the coming years should start to show through in Free Cash Flow and bottom line Net Profit.

There's still a few years to go, with the PSTN switch off and full termination of Legacy services, but I expect the picture will become much clearer during the next 5 or 6 years.

Now the end is near

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pcwq2usV7Y

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQD3At3E7TA

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/talktalk-group-picks-bankers-to-spearhead-break-up/ar-AA1MXBIl?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=68cf29a230ae417882cbcf1a61278857&ei=15

Can't access the article without subscribing now, opened no problem this morning.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/1b23a6c7-029e-428f-b609-a71dabc50bbd

"Vodafone’s most promising area of growth remains the fast-growing African market. In the first quarter, African revenue rose 13.8 per cent. This was helped by 20 per cent growth in its M-Pesa payments business. M-Pesa is a money transfer product and now makes up over 29 per cent of the company’s African service revenue. It added 900,000 new users in the period to bring total customers to 26mn.

Africa is one of the few parts of the world that still has a growing population, and the lower levels of internet infrastructure on the continent means people are even more reliant on their smartphones. For a while, Africa’s business was too small to impact the wider Vodafone group, but it now makes up 20 per cent of total revenue and is on the brink of overtaking the UK as its second-largest market. "

🥱

"Funds comment they treat UK as an emerging market now"

Mark Mobius said the same thing in 2019. Personally I take any media meted out in articles by the financial press with a huge pinch of salt, they're most likely vested interest's talking their own book. I decide for myself where and when I invest and when I sell. I can't remember market/stock valuations built more on narrative than substance than I'm seeing today, passive investment funds have inflated many US Tech stocks to stratospheric P/E's that'll never be realised by future earnings. I'm doing ok, I'll stick with my own investment strategy.

"Fleccy. If you have made £102k & get £29k a year on top, that sounds good. But you have stated many times that you believe in compounding your divi's, so if you are re investing your divi's you have not made 29k per year + 102k"

Daniel a paper gain is an unrealised gain, so the "£102,587.23" is how much our shares were worth above the original Book value when I made my earlier post, it's a fluid figure that changes as the share prices fluctuate; Our Dividend income figure is based on our current annual income from dividends, so nothing I stated is misleading or incorrect.

As much as it's true that for many years we reinvested all our dividends, over recent years we've been using a portion of our dividends for other things, like a Solar PV system, an Air Source Heat pump and other things. We will likely reinvest around half our dividend income over the coming year and use half for holidays and other home improvement projects.

Mole our UK investments are doing ok, currently showing a paper gain of £102,587.23 and tax free annual dividends income of over £29,000, what's your problem. We can reinvest our dividends to compound returns, or spend on holidays or home improvements. UK value dividend stocks seem pretty good to us.

The market is reacting negatively going off today's open, not sure why. I doubt the Bharti board additions are indications Bharti are planning a takeover, more likely to do with partnering with BT on international business.

"Trumps greed is all about supply and control, unfortunately the America we once knew is a different America under this new USA order. (Make America Great Again)"

I'm not sure that's correct, the US has operated beggar thy neighbour policies for decades and change the rules to suit themselves. Off the top of my head, I can think of things like the US dismantling the international Gold standard under Nixon and more recently the Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and the current changes we're seeing under Trump. The US has also used the Dollar reserve currency status, to police other countries and companies in order to promote US foreign and economic policies, it didn't start under Trump it's just more out in the open.

"Name me a conflict that the Israeli's started?"

Most of the World's terrorist activity is motivated by Western policies in relation to Israel.

For example, Al-Qaeda considers that attacks on the United States and its allies amount to attacks on Israel, because they are Israel’s ‘fathers, creators, guardians and protectors’; We can all remember 9/11 which lead to the Afghan War, apparently "the United States lost a total of 2,459 military personnel in Afghanistan. Of this figure, 1,922 had been killed in action. An additional 20,769 were wounded in action. 18 operatives of the Central Intelligence Agency were also killed during the conflict. Further, there were 1,822 civilian contractor fatalities". Clearly Israeli policy creates problems the rest of the World has to deal with, not just Israel, including UK terrorist attacks that are attributable to the UK's involvement in the creation and support of Israel. The more aggressive Israel is, the more it increases the chances of terrorism in other countries perceived as being Israel's allies. Clearly Israel does stuff and the rest of the World shares the payback; Arguably the Afghan war has it's roots in respect of Israeli and US Middle East policy and none of the above mentions the thousands killed when the twin towers came down.

"Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri asserted that Israeli repression of Palestinians during the Second Intifada was the immediate cause that forced Al-Qaeda to launch the September 11 attacks"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motives_for_the_September_11_attacks

Well Tom we're now living in a Nuclear age, it's only a matter of time before terrorists get their hands on a Nuclear Bomb; The more grievances a country creates, the greater the chance that they'll be a target. I would suggest the Israeli Government is short sited and not considering something that could happen at some distant future date; And realistically the only reason Israel gets away with what it does is because the US has it's back, it isn't as though Israel would be where they are without US backing.

"No mention of Palestine in the Quran. The prophet refers to Judea and to children of Israel"

Absolutely meaningless in a modern society, as is religion in general. Anyone who follows religion devoutly are deluded, since if one God exists they all must be real; We might as well say that the Viking/Roman/Greek God's are all real too and not just interesting character subjects for good films. Lets be realistic, if there's an underlying intelligence behind the Universe it's embedded at the Quantum level and the same everywhere.

"6 million Muslims within the borders of Israel. They out breed the Jewish population. Pretty poor genocide and ethnic cleansing"

Can you define the borders of Israel? Are you including the West Bank and Gaza in that, because as far as I know the West Bank is supposed to be Palestinian and the IDF are an occupying force. It isn't just Gaza that's turning the World against Israel, everyone can see what's going on with the apartheid policy in the West Bank and the IDF enabling illegal settlers to evict Palestinians from their land; Palestinians have few rights, for example if a West Bank Palestinian wants to marry someone in Gaza, they have to move to Gaza because their future partner isn't allowed to move to the West Bank and once someone leaves the West Bank for Gaza they aren't allowed to return. Basically the Israeli Government are facilitating the theft of Palestinian land and leaving the previous occupants with nothing, I think I'd hate an occupying force that operated similar policies in the UK, wouldn't you?

"Israel isn't a rogue state, they are fighting terrorists who only yesterday attacked and killed within Israel"

If they aren't a rogue state then explain to me why they're working hard to force every Palestinian out of Gaza and the West Bank? The truth is every Palestinian "encouraged" to leave have to go somewhere, many ending up in Europe and the UK. Check out 40 minutes into this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0woo1Ufi_E

I'm not being funny but Israel are on a massive land grab in the West Bank, using illegal settlers (terrorists) who are obviously state sponsored. Israel want to push out every Palestinian to create their constitutionally protected Jewish state and don't care who has to deal with the Palestinians who leave the country; Palestinians have few rights in Israel, they're treated like third class citizens. They attempted to push all the Gazan's into Egypt and Egypt wasn't having it, many who do leave end up in Europe and UK, so Israel is slowly boiling the Palestinian frog to push the problem onto others at no financial cost to Israel.

Anyone who suggests that Israel isn't a rogue state are ignoring the facts and focusing purely on the Israeli narrative, which is misleading and clearly wrong. Much of the land now inhabited by Israelis was stolen from Palestinians, the West Bank could easily be described as a thiefdom since Israel are on a quest to steal any land owned by Palestinians, and the same could also be said about the historic land grab when Israel forced the Palestinians into Gaza. Israel should give Palestinians the same right as Jewish Israeli's, since the Palestinians occupied the land (Palestine) for a millennium before it was renamed Israel.

"Fleccy.. Any chance you can talk to us without going into a five page essay, that might work for me!? With all due respect!"

To be honest Dan I'm fed up with reading this narrative that LEO's are somehow a threat to Mobile Network Operators, which is wrong on so many levels. Sometimes it takes an essay to counter this BS narrative being put out there by hype merchants on the internet, that LEO's will damage MNO's like Vodafone. I don't dispute that LEO's will likely eliminate dead zones globally, but I don't see how this is a threat to Mobile Network operators. It isn't cheap putting thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit, considering that they will likely have a lifespan of around 5 years. The lower the satellite the more it's affected by atmospheric drag, which isn't a constant and fluctuates with solar activity, so satellites at 300km will likely have far shorter lifespan's than satellites above 600km.

"From @nextbigfuture, a reliable tech guy"

I just looked them up and in my opinion they're either talking their own book, or they're dreamer's. I used to work in Terrestrial line of sight microwave radio and saw the problems associated with microwave communications. Even at 300Km, for a LEO satellite directly overhead, the free space path loss will be significant and even if the satellite array downlink can cope with multiple connection's, the mobile to satellite uplink's for multiple calls will have serious problems. I don't care what the hype merchants say, Leo will never ever ever compete with terrestrial communications in developed countries. As I've said previously, a much more sensible system is for the Satellite providers to offer backhaul to the terrestrial providers, where rural areas can be served by a small 5G Cell with a transceiver and high gain antenna for uplink/downlink to the satellites.

Apparently a mobile phone can reach a peak power of around 2 Watts, but data is transmitted in bursts so the actual energy used over time is much lower, "with time-averaged powers in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 watts". The antenna in a mobile phone is omnidirectional, so there's little directional gain attributed to the antenna in the phone. Direct to mobile service will be useful if you're climbing mountains in the Himalayas, or on a desert island, or on a boat out on the ocean, but it'll be useless for providing service to multiple users in urban areas; Anyone suggesting different, clearly doesn't understand RF.

Even the Computer says NO when it comes to LEO's being a threat to MNO's mole.

Continued:

"3. Inherent physical limitations

Beam overlap and interference: While beamforming helps to isolate users, some amount of inter-beam and intra-beam interference is unavoidable, particularly in dense areas where beam footprints may overlap. This interference can degrade signal quality for all users and reduces the overall capacity of the system.

No scaling of hardware: Unlike a terrestrial network where a mobile operator can deploy more cell towers to increase capacity in a dense area, a single LEO satellite's capacity is fixed. While the constellation provides greater overall coverage and load balancing, the capacity over any one city at any one time is inherently limited.

The constellation strategy: a complex workaround

Satellite constellations like Starlink and AST SpaceMobile address this by distributing the load across many satellites. The idea is that at any one time, multiple satellites are visible to users in a given area. The network can then intelligently assign different users to different satellites, effectively creating a cellular-like network in the sky.

However, even with constellations:

Limited capacity per satellite: The fundamental limits on any one satellite remain. The number of simultaneous high-speed connections a single satellite can handle is relatively small compared to a terrestrial network.

Constellation capacity is spread thin: The total capacity of a constellation is distributed over its entire coverage area, making it less efficient for serving densely populated urban markets where capacity is needed most.

In summary, while phased array antennas are a necessary component to make D2D viable at all, they do not magically solve the capacity problem. D2D remains fundamentally a low-capacity solution best suited for rural and remote areas, not a substitute for high-speed terrestrial mobile service in cities."