Member Info for fleccy

There are alternatives to Lithium Ion batteries, like hydrogen fuel cells. The answer would be to increase power generation from renewables and nuclear, far in excess of our domestic needs, and use the excess energy to produce and store Hydrogen from electrolysis. EV batteries aren't a solution to every transport need and it's unlikely big trucks, or Airlines, will utilise EV batteries. The World is focusing on EV battery solutions, maybe the UK should throw everything into power generation and hydrogen production, finding solutions for the issues used as an excuse to choose other alternatives to hydrogen. Also by throwing everything into power generation, and bringing down energy costs for industry, it would make the UK a far more competitive location for energy intensive industries to locate.

I'm bored of arguing about it, you're just confusing the argument by spinning yarns. I'm now retiring off here for the evening and watching Perry Mason on Sky catchup.

"who said the share price was about maths?"

You did.

You said, "Based on the current market cap - with 10 Billion more shares, the current share price would be about 40.6p", so you were suggesting that the share price would be 40.6p without the buybacks.

I then said "That's just an assumption, it's like me saying the share price would be 53p if the money spent on buybacks was directed into dividends instead."

To which you responded, "No it is maths".

You inferred that the share buybacks had lifted the price by 6.12p and reinforced your assertion by saying "No it is maths".

I can only go off what you post, not what you're thinking.

"No it is maths"

If the Lloyds share price was about math's it'd be based on fundamentals and not on sentiment, somewhere around double where it currently sits.

You shape the narrative to justify your own view, how come you're now saying the current share price is based om Math's yet you said it was based on sentiment on the 12th May?

"longtimeinvestor

Posted in: LLOY

Posts: 23,812

Price: 45.645

No Opinion

RE: LTI Spreading BS Again12 May 2023 16:14

Bj

Sentiment has been knocked back by the recent bank failures, and has had the effect that I had hoped for - keeping the share price down for longer for the benefit of the share buyback.

The market can always find an excuse/reason to not yet be ready to re rate banking stocks . Along with the bank failures, there will be 'concerns' with if increased levels of provisions will be required as the UK grapples with getting inflation under control."

Lloyds share price can't be based on both Math's and sentiment, it's one or the other. If the price is based on sentiment, then it could be at any level. Sentiment on the back of a higher dividend could drive the price higher than the current level and sentiment alone could drive the price in any direction irrespective of the buybacks.

I'd argue that the figure you gave is an assumption since the Math's is irrelevant when sentiment is driving the price, what's thick about that? You're selecting whatever narrative fits the argument you're making at the time, you should make your mind up and stick to one.

"Based on the current market cap - with 10 Billion more shares, the current share price would be about 40.6p."

That's just an assumption, it's like me saying the share price would be 53p if the money spent on buybacks was directed into dividends instead.

"Lloyds/UBS are not involved with removing water from a bucket, they are involved with removing shares from the market - I thought you would have known that."

Apologies, I forgot that your condition inhibits your ability to understand a metaphor, I should have known that, I'll stick to Black & White in future.

As I said LTI:

"If you're filling a bucket with a hole in the bottom, all that matters is the amount of water left in the bucket when you pour it out."

"It does. it serves the purpose of showing what the situation would look like without the benefit of share repurchases - how many more times?"

It's probably only of significance to you LTI, and possibly a few others. In the scheme of things the monthly figures are all that's required and as I said it highlights anomalous months where the trend isn't maintained. I can look at the charts and recognise whenBlock listings have occurred and take a more detailed look should I wish to.

If you're filling a bucket with a hole in the bottom, all that matters is the amount of water left in the bucket when you pour it out.

"that is good and good that you have changed to ''everything that I need to know''"

I did mention my views on this in a previous thread

"So instead of currently having about about 65.5 Billion shares, there would have been about 75.5 Billion shares on the market."

Knowing that serves no purpose though, as I said the only thing that counts is visibility of the monthly number of issued shares and and the month on month variation. What do you materially gain from looking at daily changes over recording monthly changes? I can see the monthly direction of progress, and detect anomalous months at a glance, what more do you need?

As I said in a previous post, maybe the UK should massively invest in power generation and use excess electricity production for Hydrogen production and storage. Because of the competition for Batteries and EV components, taking a different route and developing Hydrogen powered engines and Hydrogen fuel cells may pay off long term, at worst we'll take a different direction than the rest of the World.

"How on earth can it be irrelevant - you have to know the number of shares removed by share repurchase programmes as that is the ONLY way to calculate the benefit/worth of such schemes."

What I said is that you only need to look at the monthly voting rights to get a picture of what's happening. Looking at daily share buybacks is just a waste of time and effort.

I have a spreadsheet set up and I simply paste in the end of month published voting rights and it tells me everything I need to know. It has three columns, a Date column, a Voting Rights column and a column subtracting the previous month Voting Rights figure from current month Voting Rights figure. It's irrelevant to know if they've bought back X Billion shares and Block listed Y Billion shares, the change (Total Voting Rights - (X - Y)) is all that counts and that's embedded within the published monthly Total Voting Rights figure.

These charts show me everything I need to know:

I can see the month on month drop, or increase, in Total Voting Rights so I can tell how the share buybacks are progressing

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS0oSavIsBjHgD7k6NMyk7Z591Cm2IrevvLI-Jq95gOmESrOI0Vi_NhA8LIO9rMz90Y5zCOCoFuEItG/pubchart?oid=1812824850&format=interactive

This chart gives me an easy to view month by month indication, of the amounts subtracted or added to the Total Voting Rights

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS0oSavIsBjHgD7k6NMyk7Z591Cm2IrevvLI-Jq95gOmESrOI0Vi_NhA8LIO9rMz90Y5zCOCoFuEItG/pubchart?oid=1451011517&format=interactive

Why do I need to look at the daily Buyback figures, or look out for Block Listing figures when the two charts tell me everything I need to know?

The enthusiasm for Crypto is fading and since the whole sector is based on nothing but sentiment, the tokens will fade along with it.

"That says how many shares are in issue, which is good to know, but that figure has nothing to do with how many shares the repurchase programmes have removed - 10 Billion so far."

The number of shares removed is irrelevant, as is the number shares block issued; In the end the only thing that counts is the bottom line, which in this case is the number of shares in issue or total voting rights.

If it's listening to your conversations then it's eavesdropping lol. The real point of my post was to point out that the Security Services Amazon deal is probably the reverse of what people think.

It's pointless looking at daily share buybacks, the end of month Total Voting Rights tell us everything we need to know.

"The UK's three spy agencies; GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 have contracted AWS, Amazon's cloud computing arm to host their classified material"

I saw the articles around this and it wont be what people think, in my opinion. If I was to hazard a guess, and it is a guess, the deal is more likely for Amazon to pass raw data back to the intelligence agencies, collected from various sources within their cloud, for processing by GCHQ's computers. Our intelligence agencies are hyper sensitive to exposing data to external sources, so the original story doesn't make sense unless it's Amazon passing the data to them, rather than the other way around. We've got four Alexa devices in our home, who's to say what's being fed back into the cloud? My wife's convinced that the Alexa devices eavesdrop, as she complains when she mentions something in conversation she soon gets related adverts coming though on her laptop.

The easiest way for the UK to dig itself out of the current hole, is for the Government to invest massively in power generation. Electricity generation should be the main focus, building industries to use any excess energy production for other things, like Hydrogen production and storage. We have limited resources as a small country, the world is in a competition to grab elements like lithium and other rare earth elements, we appear to be at the mercy of others, so we need to make the most of what we've got. The more electricity we produce, the more it brings down energy costs for consumers and energy dependent industries. There are loads of uses for any excess power we might produce, like heating giant greenhouses, vertical farming and reducing energy costs for industry in general, it's a no brainer in my opinion. I can't understand why they haven't already done it?

Can't read it, it's behind the paywall.

"The UK future is back in the EU."

Won't happens for decades, if ever. The EU wont necessarily survive, it's only sheer political will holding it together. Look at the bond yield spread between various EU countries, Germany can borrow money considerably cheaper than others. Jealousy between various member states could tear the block apart, Germany rules the roost and seems to grab all the best jobs/industries at the expense of it's EU partner countries. Countries like France and Italy are possible flashpoints for an industry related breakup, the Eastern European members don't like EU laws having dominance over domestic laws. As far as the rule of law, the EU disregard their own rules when it suits them, look at how they treated the Spain/Catalonia upheaval. My personal opinion is that the UK should move to a self sufficiency model as soon as possible and let others do what they want.

"Doubling cashflow is great but end of decade is too long"

It's been mentioned many times, on here, that BT is cost saving play and not a revenue growth stock and the fact that the transformation will be over many years. The market conveniently disregards what the company has been saying about increasing annual cost savings going forward, but at some point it will have to factor that in; In the meantime we can collect dividends and either spend them or reinvest them.