Member Info for Fishcakes47

Current divvy yield is around 5% and future divvy yield is set to be around 3%.

£10k @ 5% = £500, @ 3% = £300.

Not exact but sure it’s ballpark.

This could be high profile given the law firm and the fact it’s Google.
This case was in the news October 21 and it seems has taken till now for Mischon de Reya to file it.
Makes you wonder if director buys are linked?

Google won a litigation claim in the UK last year (totally different issue) which was represented by Mischon de Reya but we know LIT do their due diligence before funding a case.

https://www.aviva.com/investors/b-share-scheme-and-share-consolidation-calculator/

Calculator on Aviva site to work out return and post holding value.
Whilst fewer shares in existence the value of the company is also less by the reduction of cash on the balance sheet.

A decent HY set of results, clearly showing improved cash flow and inline with FY estimates.
Assuming all things equal and with the expected closure of the second fund this year, this company should really start to compound growth over the coming years.

Cesar Sanchez (CFO) exercised 650k shares at £1.92 on 25/1. Total value was £1.25m
Today he has sold 350k at £4.40. Total value £1.3m.

Enrique Delgado (General Manager, Proyecto Riotinto) exercised 550k shares at £1.88 on 25/1. Total value was £1.03m.
Today he has sold 250k at £4.40. Total value £1.1m.

As Mr0nions states, these chaps are selling to cover their option costs and chosen to hold onto the rest of their shares. I can’t find reimbursement packages they are both on but I’d imagine over £1m cost is very significant for them so covering their option costs this way seems entirely reasonable.

Robleo,

I believe you can set up regular investing with Hargreaves Lansdown for £1.50. I’ve not read associated terms & conditions (if you can start and stop at will) but the link is below if this helps you.

https://www.hl.co.uk/investment-services/invest-by-direct-debit

Yes, do your own research, follow a company for a while , work out your fair value - all aspects I enjoy. Personally I still usually build a position in stages if an individual stock as added risk management for my portfolio.

Hi Robleo

I’ve had a very positive experience ‘dollar cost averaging’ (DCA) into one stock I built a position in. Each month the same amount is used to openly purchase shares and after around 4 years my average share price is some 80% below the current share price (so I’m pretty well up) To be fair the SP has been very volatile during that time so I massively benefited when the price was low, loading up on stock.

There are some good articles online about DCA and the YouTube channel, Pensioncraft, has a good video comparing DCA to bulk buying on long held index funds (back testing showed bulk buying won but the host still uses DCA for the margin of safety afforded).

This method at least reduces the risk of your large initial investment being at a high point or a prolonged drawdown over a number of years. Yes, the monthly fees can add up but so can opportunity loss if you buy in one go and the stock drops and takes a couple years to recover.
That cash is not pulling its weight in such an instance.

Really research your platform to keep fees to a minimum, some offer regular stock purchase for £1.25 a month assuming you have an open position, and you could dollar cost at slightly longer intervals (for example every two months) so you are paying the fee less often.

Last year I opened two other positions. Opened with half my amount into each and DCA the rest into each on alternate months (Jan into Stock A, Feb into Stock B etc).
Stock A, my average SP increased as it appears I bought at a low, but it hasn’t increased by much and I’m 20% up, probably losing a little over 5% on the upside.
Stock B, my SP averaged down and whilst only 10% up it would not have been this high been had I bought in one go. Splitting my money for the initial purchase also allowed me to buy into two positions at once.

Everyone will have their own strategy based on their portfolio size, income level and what helps them sleep at night, and I enjoy this about investing, always something new to learn.

Ianjo,

Please could you expand on this line

“Colleagues worry that if it gets on the formulary that it will be used indiscriminately”

What is the concern here? That it would first be used over cheaper options?

PeterS23

I don’t believe they have to announce the culmination of a claim via RNS - it’s money going through the books as any other business - but do expect the interim results to update on the number and value of claims closed as well as those still open.

The company have issued RNS for the more significant funding contracts entered into (such as Carillion). We do not get an update whilst a claim is ongoing as this could influence the case itself (I think other litigation companies have run into this issue).

Another buy today by a Non Exc. This is becoming quite compelling given interim results to Dec 21 are due soon.
Recent buys;

Feb 4 J Moulds Non Exc 600,000 shares (total now 1.5m)
Jan 28 M Gangeni CFO 27.500 shares (first purchase)
Jan 4 Collins St Asset Mgr 1.5m shares (total now 13.3m and top holder)
Dec 24 J Moulds Non Exc 725,000 shares
Dec 21 P Molony CEO 50,000 shares (total 10.2m)

In regards the directors, all have been openly bought on the market, not options. This is pretty bullish. The main holder (Collins St) increased their holding by circa 12%, a Non Exc with two purchases so close together, the CFO opens a position. I'm waiting to see if the CEO also adds in the coming days.

This has prompted me to look back at the FY results in June 21 to remind myself where the company was at that time.
The average case time was 27 months (based on 10 years data) with Covid expected to add a delay.

Of the portfolio, 44 cases were ongoing. The number and length of time the cases were open as of June 21 are below with where they would be as of Dec 21 in brackets;
16 cases 13-24 months (19-30 months)
12 cases 25-36 months (31-42 months)
6 cases 37+ months

In the absence of any other data I think it would be safe to assume a number of those cases were now resolved and reported in the interim results, even if we consider only the last two brackets (12 & 6 cases) were to be factored in due to Covid delays, this would suggest a number of the 16 cases will mature this year.

The FY results in June 21 showed a high percentage of the total cases open at that time were for a claim size over 100m.
6x 100-200m
8x 201-500m
5x 501m+

Joining the dots it *may* seem that key shareholders would appear to be very confident. As far as I can see the fundamentals for the business are still good, so this just adds to the conviction which is tempting me to add at the current price.

It looks to be the CFO’s first investment in the company, having been in the role a little under 2 years and I agree, £25k could be a significant sum for her.

Along with the CEO buy in December, Collins St Asset Mgrs (the top shareholder) also increased their holdings by 1.5m shares during January, a 12% increase in their holding.

Good signs.

First I’d like to say I’m no expert at all and in no way am I suggesting anything underhanded.
Directors buys can be a good sign as a show of confidence. A good article below about what is / isn’t insider trading. Includes a great quote by Peter Lynch.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/061202.asp

Always interesting to see the CFO increase their holdings, being closest to the books every day.

Purely speculating here. Interim results covering to the 31st December are due in a little over a month and I’m sure the CFO will by now know exactly what this set of results will look like.

Employees contribute out of their gross pay, either weekly or monthly, which means the contribution is free of NI or tax. I guess this means that In effect the shares are bought at circa 33% discount and RM match up to two shares based on number bought, which push the discount further to 40% ish discount. The max contribution is £100 a month.

Because of the advantageous tax arrangement the shares must be held for 3 years minimum, (Locked In Shares) unless the employee leaves the business at which point they are sold and subject to NI and tax being paid on the contributions made.
They can be sold between 3-5 years (Conditional Shares) but are subject to NI and tax iand after 5 years (Available Shares) they can be sold without having to pay NI or tax.

The cash employees contribute from pay is held until around the 15th of the following month at which point shares are bought, I believe on the open market at whatever the price at that time.
Any surplus cash is held forward to the following month (where there is cash but not enough for a full share).

The scheme is administered by Equiniti and the employee booklet is available online if you search online for Royal Mail SIP, which includes the above info. Hope this answers the question.