This is not exactly behaving normal, as if retail or legitimate institutions would sell on cusp of potential offer or just simply clarity over future, and when SP is down 80% from IPO.
There is major heat on this share from the big banks before a potential offer, don't you think they want to shake some people off this share at major losses, just so they can spend the rest of their life sweeping floors at some drive thru questioning WHY THEY SOLD!!!
'Sell now, and buy back cheaper.'
Not exactly words of wisdom when the stock was purchased over £5 when it IPO'd. I suppose you will precisely time a major trend reversal or takeover??? Why do you think, Barclays, JPMorgan etc are on almost daily derivative changes; the stock is completely dislocated from fundamentals. What's the opposite of a BAG Holder???
'And I stand by it being crap'
Have you purchased anything from the THG??? Or more specifically Myprotein???
Try the Dark Chocolate protein cookies. Once you go black, you won't go back...
I don't agree THG is a confused company or doesn't have pricing power...In respect of Myprotein division, I have been a retail customer for over 10 years, it has the manufacturing SIZE and SCALE to achieve ECONOMIES OF SCALE and a strong supply chain. Why don't you try starting a protein bar or drink company if you think it's easy??? Sadly, you will get eaten like a piranha!!!
I haven't followed many stocks on risk of default or administration, but I remember Thomas Cook going down to 1p and up to 13p before things didn't work out; HERTZ in America went up to a Crazy level. This is slightly different, because nobody trusts what is happening, the business is fundamentally good, the asset base is good, the RNS are vague and management is unpredictable, whilst the circumstances are crazy complicated.
I wouldn't rule a rescue deal or offer out, crazy to sell if you were long here, so hold and hope for the best. The odds are anyone's guess, potentially if negotiations in Russia/Ukraine come back it may help. Just remember companies are still allowed to use Gazprom to purchase gas, governments and regulators should be accountable for this breach or market fairness.
It feels as if the RNS has been purposefully degraded when no further certainty has been clarified, it is either a mood based causal statement, or a deliberate dampening of sentiment. I was told that most of the weakness of the SP was in when this was 3p by JM, so you can no longer believe RNS. Could be positive could be negative. Pointless selling for anyone who got in before the crash. HOLD FIRE.
RE 'A Sanction is supposed to be a penalty not a forced liquidation'
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Lets say you club together with some mates, don't disclose your position, and then drive up or down the SP. Do you think the FCA will mind, will they let you off the fine or sentence???
The word Sanction has been used here as an Umbrella, unfortunately the Oligarch who's yacht has been pinched is unlikely to complain...
What about the banking, swift, debt repayment, blocking sale of gold...A Sanction is supposed to be a penalty, not a forced liquidation. They also had to change there Sanctions powers several weeks in, due to crossing grey areas.
Its all very grey, different shades of grey, and a watermark!!!
I don't know what is going to happen, however given that investors across multiple countries have been affected I would imagine there must be some legal ramifications if you force a company to default on a global market...I did read the FCA rules when these Sanctions came about and half the gov were violating the rule book, there are statements over 'fair and orderly market participation,' 'price manipulation', 'investor protection,' 'market integrity;' would you consider what has happened to be 'normal market risk?'
Interesting new interview on the current times with two of the greats:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qD4kqAarec
I particularly enjoyed where Dalio says Gold acts as insurance and a protective layer...he seemed to miss the part about government intervention...
Alix have resigned due to service restrictions on consultants, resignation means nothing...
https://www.three.fm/news/business/advisers-to-london-listed-gold-miner-petropavlovsk-quit-as-russian-sanctions-bite/
Earlier this month, Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, announced a ban on the export of services including management consulting, accountancy work and public relations.
"Doing business with Putin's regime is morally bankrupt and helps fund a war machine that is causing untold suffering across Ukraine," she said.
I agree Alix may be more for a front although we are in complex times and management may require additional research and outsourcing to get things done faster and achieve better solutions than they can achieve alone. This level of sanctions and situation is unheard of, so you can understand why some things might be beyond their normal remit. I hope the cost is worth it!!!
I have trained myself to just ignore the volatility on this stock in relation to our portfolio...
It is tainted by betrayal from the people who are supposed to help you (I'm not talking about the BOD or Russia).
Regardless of outcome a mental note has been made about the rules in life.
Gold is Money, we are not flipping burgers like Mcdonalds, unless management want to exit for personal reasons (and also have jobs lined up???) then they will want this business to continue. Also given the economic climate, gold is likely to do well with inflation, it is a good sector to be in, don't you think leaving this business for some kind of 'regular joe' job might play on managements mind...
When you look at Eurasia mining, Polymetal, and even Ferrexpo on the edge of the war zone, you can't help but feel POG holders have drawn the short straw. Eurasia, which is more of an exploration company and early developer still trading around 8p.
Lawrence13<< Unless you are privy to inside information you still can't be certain how this will resolve, yes you can connect key BOD picks or make assumptions, but even the BOD did not anticipate this invasion, therefore there are still multiple scenarios on how this could play out. Would you bet your bank account on how this will play out???
Lawrence13 / Rbrand << There is no way of knowing for certain the plans of the BOD, to a certain degree it will depend upon relationships and vested interests, given the circumstances talk of asset sale may be purely to see what options come up. Nothing is certain here. You also can't blame BOD for everything, the governments have created a movement against these stocks, no one could of known how far they would go. Likewise, if we do get some movement on negotiations, then removal/reduction in sanctions will be one of the routes out of the war.
Noticed Bloomberg reported its still ok for businesses to purchase gas & oil from Russia and use Gazprom bank as long as they pay in Euro...Nice of our governments to do things to suit themselves and forget about other investors...
Lawrence13<< yes I agree that long-term nationalisation could not be taken off table, I ended up watching a documentary about the cold war a month ago, they nationalised things after a couple of years back then. We are in different times now, the markets are more globalized and integrated, regardless of the narrative by governments there are benefits to keeping these companies in the financial markets for all countries...Also this war could phase out by October and sanctions may scale back, it is highly unpredictable, but there are a LOT of companies in same boat here, big task, things take time either way.