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20m shares have changed hands in Sweden already today and SP is steady just above 1SEK (roughly 9p). Can anyone explain to my why the UK SP won’t rise up towards this figure as the demand for shares in Sweden exerts an upward pull, shares being converted to ADR format for sale on the Swedish market? And is it in any way bad for UK shareholders (because I’m not aware of it being anything but good). I’m tempted to top up further but Mrs FF23 says we have enough….
Just prior to opening the Aktie is chalking the ask up at 1 SEK, that’s 8.3p in UK money. We shall see. My nose is poking up above water at 7p - as soon as I mention that at home Mrs FF23 tells me we should sell. So many shareholders have been under water for so long I wonder if the relief of being back in blue will be such a relief they forget the multi-bagger potential of BEM and sell out too early? We could see some selling pressure as a result until the LTH’s with chronic fatigue are replace with newbies who haven’t had the pain of the last 5, 6, 7 or 8 years….
Some discussion of “the” legal option on here, I see.
In my view there is more than just one legal option. The most difficult and hence risky and expensive is to try to force a yes decision. Far simpler to take action for compensation for the length of time it has taken the government to reach no decision. The KU Cttee’s report and previous policy statements make it clear that BEM was entirely justified and entitled to rely on a much shorter timescale. The governments delay has had financial consequences for BEM.
I’m not at all in favour of the risky/expensive legal option as it would be very hostile and have no more than 50/50 chance of success. The compensation for Sealy option, however, has a far better chance of success, is not so innately hostile and would be an excellent way to press home the point to the Government that further delays will add cost.
I should add that if there is ultimately a “No” decision I believe it would be worth giving an application for judicial review serious consideration.
Yes Suzy, you are right, there has definitely been a change in tone amongst Swedish parliamentarians. BEM should seize the moment to add to the change in sentiment and build as much pressure as they can while there is a bit of a tailwind.
All posts since 12 noon today gone? Did Admin he the red pencil out? What’s all that about, it was all pretty sensible and civil at least last time I looked at 5pm. Even Unclemal’s kind thank you post has been disappeared.
Hi Suzy, yes I heard him say he would give the incoming ministers some time to become familiar with their new brief, but not too long (without adding a timeline). My concern about this approach is that it virtually wipes the slate clean from all previous delays; each new minister has to have time to get up to speed and, as Mr Budge said himself, be educated by Mr Budge on the BEM application. If we look at that, we won't know who the new ministers are until late this month, maybe early Dec, so how long is not very long? Certainly not before Christmas, then the government will be in recess until halfway through January and the new ministers can plead for more time on the basis it's a complex issue (cf Mr Baylan), so we're getting close to Easter before Mr Budge starts seeking to ramp up the pressure? He said himself that there will be 4-6 months of electioneering for next year's election, so there won't be any point trying to do anything from April or May onwards and hey presto, we have to wait for the elections and then for the new ministers to be allowed time to get familiar with their briefs etc. We'll be where we are now in November 2022 before you know it. My preference would be for Mr Budge to focus on the relatively easy to quantify loss that BEM has suffered as a result of the permit process taking longer than it should. There is undeniable fault on the part of the government as the KU cute has stated, maybe 3 or 4 years at least, hundreds of thousands of SEK. Get that claim on foot now, so that it's running regardless of who the incoming ministers are. That will focus their attention. There are many civil servants involved in this saga who could brief new ministers within half a day if the matter was seen as urgent, they don't need to wait for Mr Budge to do it. I should add that I'm not suggesting court action to force the decision itself, that's much more complex and controversial and best left alone. It would be sufficient to seek damages for failing to keep to their own timescales to build pressure on the government.
Hellomotto - my point was not that Mr Budge is a poor operator, it was that I think it is a tactical mistake to focus on individual ministers whose come and go rather than seeking to build pressure on the government as an institution. I have no doubt that in many ways Mr Budge is a very capable and competent operator.
I haven't been critical of Mr Budge previously because he's got a tough job on his hands with the Swedish government, but I was disappointed with his implicit approach to the Kallack permitting issue on the Webcast - which ended after 25 minutes rather than half an hour and without picking up the question I sent in. Mr Budge's position is that he has to wait for the new Prime Minister and Minister of Trade to educate them and persuade them to move things along in BEM's favour because that is the correct application of the rules. No timescale on any proceedings as they need a bit of time after they come into office. That approach regards the decision as being personal to the current incumbents as though it starts anew every time there is a new person in office. It plays into the hands of further delays and obfuscation. The permitting decision belongs to the institution of Government not the individuals from time to time. There is an army of civil servants behind the scenes who are already educated about the application and its justifications. Mr Budge should be applying pressure to the office of Government rather than waiting to build relationships with people who are new in office in the hope he can talk them into granting the BEM application. New ministers move a lot faster then there is an ongoing crisis at the time they come into office than if they are approached with the attitude of "....there's this thing that's been hanging around for a while, but don't worry, you'll have a bit of time to get to grips with it (and the opportunity to kick it down the road until after the next election." In my view the angle that should be explored is the compensation for delay and the cost to BEM of having invested into a process that should have been concluded by now, even according to the KU report. That's not compensation that new ministers have to pay personally, it's compensation that the government will have to pay if BEM can make that case. Judicial Review of the actual decision can wait until the decision is made, whenever that may be, but pressure has to be brought on the institution of government. It feels to me like Mr Budge's approach is likely to result in no decision this side of the 2022 election and then fresh discussions with the 2022 version of Prime Minister and Enterprise Minister.
Thanks Suzy, interesting indeed. Meanwhile in Sweden the SP continues to tick steadily upwards, now equivalent to 6.5p. Apparently no trades in the UK yet today even though ask is at 5.3p. Something’s gotta give; despite the 10% MM spread the differential is into day trader territory.
Thanks for both of your replies to my original post, Extracover, I agree with both of them. FarEnd, I agree and accept that the iron ore price alone does not drive the SP but it is a factor in the price calculation equation. While the iron ore price has fallen dramatically but the SP has not one might deduce that investors are viewing other components in the equation more favourably, or upgrading their views on the value of quality of the Kallack resource. Either way, the discussion made a nice change from politics, permits and climate change.