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AdF, I’m going to guess that news about the deadline got out around 2pm today, when the SP in Sweden wobbled, but has since largely recovered. 15.6m shares traded in Sweden today vs 92k on AIM. Hmm, liquidity…
Likewise made a small top-up this morning, also showing as a Sell. Isn't everything at the moment....so who's buying all those sells, lol.
Semantics really, but to my mind a pump and dump is when somebody is deliberately misleading investors with a view to selling their own shares at an inflated value before the price collapses back downwards. What we’ve seen is more like a bit of over excitement about when a positive result will be delivered (not over excitement about what the value of the company will ultimately be. Volumes are averaging only 1/3 of the level at the start of Dec. With that in mind, here’s something I posted two weeks ago, which still holds good as far as I can see.
“Very exciting day today and very happy for all that. Looking forward what can we realistically expect? Thor has set 16 Dec as the deadline for Sami final response, so it will go pretty quiet from now until then. Quite right too, we don’t want any inference that due process has not been followed. Likewise we shouldn’t expect any action until that final Sami response has been considered. That must take us to early/mid Jan? Even if Thor thinks BEMs application warrants an exploitation permit he isn’t necessarily going to give us that himself. It’s possible he could refer it back to the mess of agencies and authorities that failed to make a decision previously, but this time with a bit more direction than the previous govt provided. That could take a few weeks as well. It could easily be spring before a decision is made. Meantime the SP could flag a bit. After the excitement of the changing of the guard we will have to remember that good things come to those who wait and not get disheartened or angry. The tide has changed but it may be a bit longer before it comes all the way in.”
All that’s changed is that the Sami have said BEM should re-apply because they have over-estimated the size of the ore deposit, which I don’t think anyone will take seriously vs a JORC survey.
https://www.nordnet.dk/markedet/aktiekurser/16100655-beowulf-mining-sdb
Also useful
Moop - I don't consider myself an expert on iron ore prices and extraction costs, but 65% ore is currently around $100USD per tonne (having been double that only 6 or 7 months ago). So, more like £75GBP. The global iron ore minors work on $15-20USD per tonne extraction costs, but for BEM there will be some up front infrastructure costs and probably some green levies, along with a sop to the Sami. Early days $50USD per tonne might not be a bad cautious guess, but set up costs could be amortised over the anticipated lifetime of the mine. I'm going to offer the BB the notion that £80GBP per tonne would be the current market value as Kallak is more like 80% than 65% and suggest extraction costs of $35USD/£26GBP. Guess what, I'm suggesting £54GBP profit per tonne compared to your £50GBP. So on the basis of 2.7m tonnes per year I think your figures aren't far wide of the mark. Like you, I'd be glad to hear other views.
Lbjj I’ve had you in filter for years - not because I’m sensitive to different opinions, but because you’ve had nothing new to say, just kept repeating your ‘can’t say yes, won’t say no, I’ve got one opinion and that’s more than I have shares’. So you’re off filter now as I’m fascinated to hear what you’ll say in response to a clear shift in the Govt’s attitude. Make the most of the chance, you’ll be back on filter as soon as you get repetitive again, especially if you keep up the Gambier fan-boy routine.
Long term readers of this bb will recall your pompous postings years ago under a different Gambier ID. Then, as now, you made lofty statements about how things work as though an expert and derided anyone who disagreed as uninformed, unwise or stupid. You added nothing to the discussion back then and now the SP is back on the way up here you are again with a new Gambier ID up to the same old egotistical tricks.
Very exciting day today and very happy for all that. Looking forward what can we realistically expect? Thor has set 16 Dec as the deadline for Sami final response, so it will go pretty quiet from now until then. Quite right too, we don’t want any inference that due process has not been followed. Likewise we shouldn’t expect any action until that final Sami response has been considered. That must take us to early/mid Jan? Even if Thor thinks BEMs application warrants an exploitation permit he isn’t necessarily going to give us that himself. It’s possible he could refer it back to the mess of agencies and authorities that failed to make a decision previously, but this time with a bit more direction than the previous govt provided. That could take a few weeks as well. It could easily be spring before a decision is made. Meantime the SP could flag a bit. After the excitement of the changing of the guard we will have to remember that good things come to those who wait and not get disheartened or angry. The tide has changed but it may be a bit longer before it comes all the way in.
To my mind the biggest risk to shareholder value in BEM is the risk that the company regards itself as a mining company rather than a mining exploration company. A JV with LKAB wouldn't be quite so bad, but ideally BEM will take the project to the point of actual mining and then sell to one of the big names like Rio - and when I say sell, I mean sell itself, not the resource. A buyer would quickly spin off the graphene and gold resources to more appropriate owners.
To make the link work you have to replace the * * * * with s l u t
It's basically a parliamentary question to Thor pointing out past delays and asking when he's going to make a decision on Kallak. We wait with bated breath.