The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Putin’s problem is that “taking” a country with a force of 200,000 men (and air cover) is not so difficult if it’s well planned and executed. Keeping an antagonistic population of 40,000,000 in line after you’ve killed their countrymen, taken away their vote and made their day to day lives hopeless is an altogether different challenge. Look back and see how many populations, conquered by a hostile force, have come to terms with an imposed leadership and integrated themselves. Putin may have been right about how easily he could take Ukraine, but the cost of holding it will be a test he may well be unable to meet.
Couldn't resist a tiny top up at these prices.
Sounds like Sweden and Finland are actively pursuing NATO memberships for pretty obvious reasons. Even if Putin has ne designs on them he'll be unhappy about their courting of his enemies. I don't think that would stop him selling iron ore to them directly, but things with Ukraine are going to be messy for a long while so it makes a lot of sense to have self sufficiency on iron ore within their own borders or very close by. As governments come to terms with the fact that wars can happen in 2022 the Swedish government has greater incentive to grant the BEM exploitation licence - IMO at least.
Roller1 - you seem to be keeping close tabs on K-PT, when is he due back in Sweden from Brussels?
GLA
As per SJ74 and Greentea, let’s remember that as the share price rose we were seeing volumes upwards of 15,000,000 a day in Sweden for several weeks, peaking at 95,000,000 on one day alone. Yesterday less than 8m shares traded, today has kicked off at similar pace. Meanwhile world markets have gone risk-off over Russia and its still only just over a week since the deadline for BEM’s comments to go in. Unless anyone knows different there’s been no actual news? In which case this is a relatively small number of shareholders selling off in a momentum driven dip. Nothing fundamental has happened to BEM and its application.
Eric, very interesting document, thanks for posting the link. Here we are worried about the risk to reindeer migration routes scuppering out concession when it’s laid out in the last two pages that LKAB have had to relocate whole sections of towns in order to dig out iron ore they have rights to!
I’m not too concerned about the report of the two UN Special Rapporteurs - although they are individuals appointed by the UN to ‘investigate’ particular themes or countries they aren’t remunerated so they usually have an activist or financial driver behind them. The two involved in the BEM recommendation are ones for indigenous people and human rights and the environment. They seem to have got together for this particular gig. They get a bit or media attention, but not much and they have no teeth or sanctions. As you might expect, they’re seen as prioritising their own narrow fields of expertise over and above National and economic interests.
Theroot - if you have a different opinion feel free to post something that starts “I disagree because…” and then explain your point of view. It contributes a lot more to the discussion than posting things like “total horse**it”
Given the ongoing geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe it’s hard to think that it won’t have some bearing on government’s decisions across Europe/Scandì/Baltics - wouldn’t it be nice to have high quality iron ore on tap in your own territory and not have to worry about global supply chains, eh! Are you listening K-PT?
Russia's GDP is smaller than that of Texas. Putin can only stay relevant by being disruptive and he's very good at that - look at past elections in UK and US and various cyber attacks. He also has a lot of (poor) people at his disposal, sadly quite literally, and a small number of mega-wealthy people who wouldn't hesitate to militate against him if he doesn't help them perpetuate his wealth. The Russia/Ukraine tensions are set to go on for a while. K-PT on the other hand, has a broad portfolio of trade opportunities and policies to think about, not just one mine and he's not going to hurry himself to please us. For him one, two or three weeks is nothing at all bearing in mind he's busy on plenty of other things. Kallak is just one other item to fit into his schedule and probably far from the most important from his governments perspective. Calmness (or even patience) is what's needed. What did the Sage say - fearful when others are greedy and greedy while others are fearful. GLA
I’ve said what I think will happen, so I won’t repeat it again or I’ll get another talking to by Suzy, but in terms of timing I’m thinking it will be mid March, based on the fact that it’s already over 2 months since K-PT started the “I love mines” routine. He’s got other things on his plate and has to at least make it look like he’s carefully considering the information (yes, I know there’s really nothing new that’s come out in the latest round of comments and counter-comments, but they have to make it look like they’ve reviewed everything to the nth degree). So, plenty of time for rumour and leak driven peaks and troughs to torture the nerves of the BEM Old Brigade yet.
The good news is that Greta hasn’t tweeted about Kallak lately and the other opponents seem to have piped down a bit too.
Greta has 5,000,000+ followers on Twitter, not sure how many on Instagram and or Facebook, but 75k is a poor return imo and that’s globally, so the govt will be aware that a tiny proportion are in Sweden or know anything about Kallak. We don’t have anything to fear from the petition. Similarly, you might recall that there was a UN report on poverty in the UK a couple of years ago which the UK govt completely ignored as “wrong”, so I don’t think we have anything to fear from that either (JohnTG - it was showing as an item from Reuters on the LSE news feed, so don’t know why it’s not on their website but good news it isn’t). The church in Sweden? How many people care much about the church’s political pronouncements? The campaign against Kallak has done it’s best to present against the mine, but they are firing blanks the Govt’s won’t worry about. They will be much more concerned with the mainstream media in Sweden ahead of the election.
Plenty of discussion as to the relative likelihood’s of yes or no from K-PT. I just don’t think it’s as binary as that. There are a multitude of options in between a straightforward yes or no. Ultimately I believe it will turn out for the good, but K-PT is a politician with an upcoming election to think about. He wants to promote his party as being good for the economy but without riding roughshod over those with climate concerns. I view it as very likely that the decision will be some kind of qualified or conditional approval or even something more obscure that enables him to say he’s pro-economy and also pro-planet. For example a decision that the CAB erred when declining the application and an invitation to the CAB to reconsider within a 9 month timeline (I.e. decision to come after the election). Make no mistake, that iron ore is coming out of the ground, but anyone pinning their hopes on a “fill your boots” style yes next week could be disappointed. More likely a request for a full environmental analysis before the concession can be granted, along with details of the infrastructure plan maybe also a requirement to come to terms with the Sami on mitigations and compensation. It hasn’t been easy the last 10 years or so, it’s not going to become easy all of a sudden next week or even next month. I just hope shareholders can see we’re making progress and don’t panic when the decision is announced. I’m here for the long term. GLA
…having given BEM until 14 Feb to make comments, will K-PT wait until then before making any comment even though KB’s reply is already in? Either way, whether K-PT is going to give a yes or a no the decision is going to have to come with a full justification. Each of the “losing” side’s points are going to have to be addressed in a fashion that minimises the chance of the decision being made subject to judicial review. If it’s a yes it will come with provisos and conditions about what has to happen next and those will not be straightforward. Hopefully the market won’t get too despondent if a “yes, get on with it” does not pop out at 9:01 on 15 Feb. I can see it taking a while for the justification of a positive decision to be written and a whole mass of conditions coming alongside it. It’s also possible it will just be a referral back to the CAB (with new head) for another go at it, with guidance on where they went wrong last time. For sure, even if it’s progress it won’t be simple.
Most of the comments on here about SP and the excellent RNS are assuming it’s an efficient market - I.e. that all shareholders and potential shareholders are fully aware of all of the information that’s in the public domain. I doubt that the vast majority are nearly as well informed as the audience on here. Some shareholders just work on momentum without knowing any of the underlying detail. Some will be unaware of anything since the Sami replied and Greta launched her petition, some will only be aware that another deadline has been issued (to 14th Feb) and will assume it’s another delay. It’s going to take time to work it’s way through, so I’m not surprised the market hasn’t responded positively the instant the RNS was issued.
Sarup63, I have decided not to sell on Monday. Hope that helps ;)
Have also decided no to sell on Tues, Weds or any other day next week. Certainly not before K-TP reveals the “decision” and likely not for a while after.