Member Info for Fevertreeman

the curse of 'nero' newland & genial griffiths strikes again. i, for one, was not surprised to see today's news. we're back to seeing nero's "hope n hype " strategy in action....an approach that so p***** off his institutional base that many disinvested after he shafted them with an 80p raise based on fantasy revenue figs. and now we have " hope n hype the sequel".

one hardly knows where to start but let's start with nero's comments in jan:

1. "we're going to triple revenues this year.....!" and today nero has just 40pc in the bag, with the usual ****** about being comfortable to hit consensus year end. no one believes you andrew, and this ridiculous approach to forecasting has to stop!

2. "we have cash runway to q2 2025 "... i'm all for raising cash when market conditions allow (bird in the hand etc) but this is a full 3 quarters before griffiths suggested new funding would be needed. and there is the caveat as others have pointed out already this am, that we may have another bloody raise in q2 '25 anyway. reinforces the consistent message of recent years that newland & griffiths remain committed to spinover substance, and routinely gild the lily if not downright lie about progress.

The company appears completely friendless. Exponent & Ravensworth seem content just to pick up the dividend, and its very hard to discern any sort of strategy behind their holdings. Given this & the tough sector its hard to see what will spark this back into life. 500k traded today; a chunky 100k purchase lunchtime which was then outvoted by a series of sales, a mix of algo and ordinary trades.

Big Pharma does not move quickly, which is a problem for emerging pharmatech/biotech companies like Agl, which are working on much shorter commercial timetables driven by cash burn. This is a perennial problem for small cap growth stocks made much worse by the collapse in AIM / small cap investing by UK institutions.

However, Newland & Grffiths have made things infinitely more difficult because of their appalling track record on revenue forecasting and giving negative surprises.

Showing decent resilience at this level. I'd expected it to settle lower but clearly us long term holders have bittent eh bullet and are sitting waiting things out. Biggest concern here contrinues to be the p*** poor leadership team. With the exception of the COO who isn't a board member, the management team has proven woeful. lets hope with Bundred off to use his bus pass we can finally get a proper plc chair on board,

Conjecture is all very well but it's easier to stick to facts:

1.FY24 results still delayed & set for next Friday....advisers rule of thumb is never release results on a Friday (unless you want to bury bad news)

2. Halfway through current financial year with just three relatively small deals to show for it...we appear to be miles off Newland's £6m current year revenues forecast

3. Newland/Griffiths dismal track record on shareholder guidance

4. Funding gap looming

EC,

Despite the recent good news on AZ contracts, Newland's track record of misleading s/holders still reverberates, finding its best expression in the share price. The confident prediction that FY24 revenues would triple to £6m looks increasingly shaky, given we're almost halfway through the year, making the likelihood of a cash raise before year end increasingly likely.

Newland & Griffiths have a dreadful track record when it comes to disappointing investors. Newland continues to play 'fast n loose' with his shareholder base - we'll see next Friday how loose when the results come out.

Highly unlikely

Unless Johnson has had a "Come to transparency " moment, I fear that he will continue to 'manage' (laughable he is CEO) on a need to know basis, which in investors case as we have found out, means that information has to dragged out of the poltroon

Typical of Newland & Griffiths to put out results on a Friday, something no adviser would ever suggest - unless of course either the news isn't good (likely) or the news is good, and they want w/e press coverage (unlikely). perhaps s/o should ask Griffiths why they have chosen to put out these delayed results on a Friday....

Equally, the former biggest holder was ex Baillie Gifford. The 800lb gorilla in the corner here isn't the tech, the customers, the order book, it is the management team , led by Johnson who seems totally at sea when it comes to running a listed company, accompanied by a CFO who committed £3,500 to the raise. Johnson isn't CEO material, as shareholders who have been on board over last 18-22 months will attest. And the CFO doesnt show any confidence in the management otherwise why the paltry commitment - £3500 - to the raise. The key appointment will be new chairman. I'm hoping it is an exec chair, as leaving Holly in charge risks a repeat of the last 18 months.

Just as well there are no longer paper share certificates issued....I see we're up to 5 billion with more to come...

...and no Adams hasn't. What a piece of work he is...And yet more flim-flannery RNS about non-progress. Ethiopians are happy coz they know they cant trust him, and currently they haven't had to put up a centime.

My dear chap, you've answered my question. You have been invested a mere 6 months. Many of us have been invested for a lot longer than that old chum.

So, no answer to the questions I posed?

Tom,

How long have you been invested here? Are you aware of Newland's track record on hyping news, missing forecasts etc?

I agree that we have had positive announcements but the size of the contracts remain tiny. And I have remarked that one swallow doesn't make a summer before, and remain wary of Newland's track record that has consistently hyped news, and then disappointed. Yes, we have had 3 decent RNS deals, but none have been of any real financial consequence. Yes, Eisai & AZ are marque names, and the deals raise AGL's profile, however it's clear that institutional support for Newland/Griffiths has drained away since the the post-FDA raise at 80p, which was followed by a big revenue warning. (check FT.com). Biggest s/holder is now Global Frontiers with 6.5%, BG has 3%, Chelverton 2.8, Aegon 2%, Unicorn 1%, UN pension Fund 0.78%. Despite the positive RNS since Jan, there has been no increase in Institutional shareholders which suggests that the jury remains out on Newland. So rehabilitation of him and Griffths has a long way to go. Mean time (1) Business continues to burn cash (""m last year), and we know they need cash to plug funding gap (2) FY 23 results have still not been announced (3) Newland's on-the-record prediction of current year 3x revenues i.e £6m, looks very shaky vs revenues year to date.

Certainly looking like we're back to familiar ploys from Newland ...'hype n hope'

So Newland & Griffiths, its 5 months since the year closed 31 December, and still no FY23 results! Not particularly reassuring for your shareholders is it

Real struggle to get things moving here. I was expecting that the results would provide a decent catalyst but there's been little if any real follow through. One wonders what the end game is for Exponent & Ravensworth sitting on c60pc of the equity. YTD its down 16%, and the 3-year picture is even worse...annualised loss of 16pc.... no wonder the CFO has thrown in the towel.

Sp is treading water albeit at higher level than we've been for a while. However it hasn't run away sharply, because there are a lot of stale bulls (in at higher levels); Newland's 'hype n hope' reputation is not easily shaken off; market looking for evidence that commercial traction will be sustained; scepticism around AN's 3x rev prediction for current yr ; and ever-present issue of a fresh fund raise which they have said is needed.

IMO Newland & Griffiths must be thinking that the time is approaching to pull the trigger on fund raise (despite 2025 cash runway extension). US markets are at all-time highs front running interest rate cuts; biopharma sector slowly reviving; investor interest returning to UK. But, first they need to provide a decent FY 2023 results with outlook statement that supports Newland's 3x revenue assertion plus IMO more decent commercial agreements to bolster confidence. If they can meet these criteria, then they may take the view that its better to raise sooner in a more positive environment than risk waiting till Q4/Q125