Ducati, I think she does, that’s my concern!
Has anyone worked out the dilution we need to take the Horst to production or are JP and JJ honestly that naive (think Theresa May and Brexit negn Plan) to think not having a plan B as leverage in any negotiation is not a problem? Dilution would be enormous for us to raise £150-200m, the market knows it, buyers know it. If te10 doesn’t come in and come in very well then the sp is going sub 10p immediately and then slowly going down to zero by November at which point the company goes bust imo. Have a great weekend all.
Exactly Shed, it’s odds on that’s the most likely outcome here now, anyone thinks otherwise doesn’t understand o&g. Also BF’s post re JP is bang on. Just like Marco, JP has turned into a duplicitous untrustworthy cant. His comment re RSUs and stock options is utter horsepoo. They would vest on any (highly unlikely) LE anyway, so using the 3yr vest period as an excuse for not taking or wanting them is a plain lie. The reason is that cash is 100% guaranteed, any option had little value to him as he knows the sp was and is fkd as it’s underpinned by nothing but fresh air. Have a great weekend all, off to walk the dog.
An utter dog this share 😢
someone wants out. 360k shares sold in quick succession....
Can anyone update as to WTF is going on with our East Texas licence areas? It's been months and months since we've heard anything about reentry of wells and seen any progress at all.
If the two throws of the dice fail in Alaska (one already bombed), and we end up have nothing in East Texas as they've fked that up too, then this is going to zero very quickly. I'm very unhappy with the huge dilution recently and slight of hand around redirecting our attention North to Alaska, despite the East Texas licence supposedly always being the jewel in PANR's crown, and having such huge upside price sunning room.
yes, definitely a leak. guess testing isn't / hasn't gone well. :-(
Both Echo and Coro getting a spanking today, both down 6%+. Any thoughts as to why? Other than it’s another Parsons debacle, that’s taken for granted. Seems like a wholesale selling off of anything JP related. It’s so low, sub 2.5p and even I would consider gambling some cash on this very very high risk SA explorer.
Definitely a very desperate seller out there. Near 2m trade on the bid side crossing a very large 10% spread. Someone wants out by the looks of it. Another fine mess Parsons has got people into :-(
Trade pattern looks familiar to me. Seen it before, one sided book for days now. I think there's a placing being worked here on the back of bad news. Time will tell. Incredible drop
“My take on Sidi being insignificant is a good one”. No, the real reason, if you look at the evidence over the last 2-3 years, speak to the team and understand how to read between the lines is that WE HAVE INSUFFICIENT FUNDS TO PROGRESS WITH SIDI. That’s it. In the same way we have insufficient funds to do our Eastern Moroccan licence area justice. They say one thing whilst REALLY meaning another. Same old SOU and especially JP bs modus operandi.
the volatility that has dogged this share for years just continues. unfortunately it puts many investors off. last rites?
Christ, this share is a joke. Do management actually do anything here? Let alone anything positive? It's like they're just sitting there doing nought and milking investors....Mmmmm. Makes you think. This was this is going, AEX will be giving SOU a good run for it's money in the 2.30 Crapest Share on AIM race @ Newmarket.
#worstshareonaim
Exploration - that's an odd statement to make "But surely the next step is not to drill another risky exploration well, but rather drill a sub-horizontal well from the TE-10 location and complete it with a hydraulic stimulation job to demonstrate the Tagi can deliver from any ‘conventional’ TAgi prospect. TE10 is a pilot hole, from which a deviated well can kick off to a seismically defined BHL target."
Especially for one so handy with Google etc.
You should know that (I'm surprised you don't tbh) that the nature of the gas bearing sands at TE6/7 and TE10 are completely different. There is a continuous and thick layer of gas rich strata at TE6/7 but at TE10 the discovery is made up of many more thinner layers over a net much lower total depth. As such a horizontal well will not be as (at all) effective compared to TE6/7 as you're unlikely to intersect as many, if any of the gas bearing strata. To be honest, they don't have the money for a horizontal deviation off TE10 anyway. From memory, that 700m horizontal well at the Horst cost over $10m. That's the best part of 6 months G&A costs, JP's pension etc.
A very tough place we're all in.
PART 2
down to 15p or lower imo. As such the market IS telling all that the commerciality of the Horst is not a nailed on certainty, much to the confusion of many here.
Anyone expecting a 300% plus move in the share price of a company with a mcap of 250m is being delusional. The smart money is either out already or getting out to small ill-informed and inexperienced investors every day.
SOU have had a bad run of luck at the drill bit, BUT it’s not that unusual for this sector. They probably aren’t much different to many peers, except for the fact they are ridiculously over-valued by hype and hope still. Investors being unable to see the wood for the trees, or to accept they’ve made a terrible mistake. It’s not easy to admit to one’s self. However, the BoD continue to communicate it a way that is 90% rampy, with 10% waning laced in there, but few if any here actually understand the warnings being given.
GSA, where’s that? Horst pressure build up data / update – where’s that? Luca’s baby – where’s that? Sidi Moktar FO – where’s that? (on that one, please don’t tell me JP has said that 9TCF is now immaterial compared to the pittance we’re discovering in Eastern Morocco, 9TCF not worth going after!! Give me a break). Mary Hood “Leaving” – what happened there? All these things and many more paint (or should paint, away from the people posting on this BB) a very very concerning picture imo.
The policing of posts on this forum is a utter disgrace now. It’s either the company tidying up posts they don’t like (even one’s that comply with LSE rules), or by the likes of the usual zero value aggressive posters that can’t deal with any view that’s not completely positive about SOU.
I’ll wait and see, but my prediction is that with 6 weeks the share price will be single figures. I spoke with 2 people who attended the event on Thursday and I’m sorry to say that there was a sizeable minority that were unimpressed with what they heard and how the SOU employees answered some questions. The only thing that did give them a crumb of comfort was that there seemed a three line whip re the message that TE11 wouldn’t be drilled and that on any success at TE10 JP would try (at least) to sell this company and move on. I think investors, employees and the BoD just want this sorry saga to be over now.
I’ll be judged in May, but as I have been right so many times in the past, my personal view as stated above, will be proved right again imvho. Single figures here we go. I’m telling you, we’re not being told the full extent of what is going on here, too many things just DON’T ADD UP!!!
This board is crammed full of desperate, blinkered and underwater investors that are blindly hoping for the best, when this company has a track record of underdelivering for the last 2.5yrs. Worse than that, this company has a clear and undeniable track record of, shall we say, talking up the upside without adequately highlighting to it's investors the true risks and issues.
The Mayfair Liquid Event is a perfect example. Standing back one should be able to understand the purpose of the investor jolly the other day. It was in a very similar vane to the Deep Dive - setting expectations and warning investors. Very few who post seem to outwardly admit that's what they heard if they attended, and very very few of those that did not attend can see that what the company was actually doing is warning investors - FLOW RATES WILL BE LOW, VERY LOW AT BEST. My opinion is that they won't release the unstimulated flow rates and they'll be far too low and would scare investors here, even if they are at the top end of company expectations.
Now I have a strong view as to why many of those that did go are posting positively still - they need to. The need to because they want and need others to be buying to allow them to sell and get the hell out of this share. That's why we only fell by 5% since midday Thursday. Naive investors on here unfortunately and it's very sad to see.
I've called this company all too well over the last 2.5yrs. I was the only one here to understand (and I warned you all) that they had more than halved the valuation metrics to 47% recoverable gas. My view is that the reason the TE5 horst doesn't have a GSA (and why it was seemingly floated by SOU employees on Thursday that te10 could become the main focus of a development rather than a feed in) is that they're now seeing the TE5 Horst in NOT commercially viable as a standalone development, despite all we've been told. This is my OPINION based on many years of experience in this company and understanding JP in particular, and you I'll be judged correct in the end imvho, just like i was re the valuation point when everyone was shouting me down.
Trust is important in an AIM company, especially high risk O&G exploration. This company has no intention of going into production. It has no funds to do so, and as such JP is in a position where he has a very weak negotiation hand in any LE type discussions. What are our alternatives? We have none. We have no significant amounts of cash after TE10 is completed and another 6 months eats into a further £6m of our cash pile.
Don't kid yourselves, wool is being pulled over investors eyes yet again. The team know that the outlook for SOU has sourced immensely over the last 24 months and their delivery has been undeniably abysmal.
At 22.5p, I can promise you one thing, there is a proportion of future exploration value in our sp. Therefore if you calculate the Horst is worth 23-27p per share, then the market is by definition risking the Ho
Wow! It's almost like 250SWB was talking shyite all along, just making it all up! Wonders will never cease. Lol. What an utter moron, hopefully educated a few people as to the type of characters trading this market and posting on these bb. Good advice as to where you can walk in lycra each morning and eat a cheeky croissant to put all those calories back in again, but knows f all about companies, investment and trading. Embarrassing!
Daveyboy, explain this for me. We’ve all been led to believe the GSA was to cover the TE5 horst (te5/6/7). This RNS says now the Moroccans want to cover the whole Tendrara Production Consession, which, per the 6th Sep 2018 RNS, is the same area. Go figure. It is only 133.5km squared and doesn’t include te10. Another pile of bs from this company that’s rapidly becoming an expert it that, if not hydrocarbon exploration. It implies until recently the GSA was being negotiated for something other than the full te5 horst, which is both not what we were told or led to believe. More smoke n mirrors from Sou, sowing the seeds of.....
To me, this reads really very badly indeed. The reference to the bleeding obvious Moroccans suggests this was an RNS directed to them, not us. I think the GSA discussions aren’t going at all well in terms of speed and or price, and this otherwise seemingly pointless rns is aimed at trying to get some movement. Perhaps JP isn’t such a good negotiator after all. Shock, horror. Back into the teens we go as other potential positive sp driver is taken out the back and shot in the back of the head. Wtf is JP doing nowadays to justify his exorbitant package? #justanotheraimceoatthetrough
JP has obviously felt the need to feed some more bs to shareholders re this issue. Those with a memory still will recall we were promised this in 1H18 originally. It’s now looking like 2020 if ever to me. He’s kicked the can down the road so much now, it just doesn’t resemble a can, in the same way he doesn’t resemble a CEO one can believe or trust, imo. What a joke of an RNS.