The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
who have been on the same journey will do that too. But right now there is huge value in the historic and future Samsung sales, make no mistake about that. Like LOAM I am heavly invested and want to be holding for that moment.
My wife knows about the Settlement RNS. She knows we didnt sell at.70p too. I was out that day at a funeral, but I hope to do better in time.
And if it all turns out bad I'll read the Rudyard Kipling poem to myself whilst skilfully avoiding to answer any questions from my wife. In a way LOAM investor managers too may have to answer some tricky questions of their own
Stt1 you just described an event. Now please give me your narrative summary of the entire case, right from inception in Feb '20 to settlement talks in Feb '23. It will be enjoyable to look back at your summary of the highlights.
Here is my investing journey in Nanoco. It has been a good ride. The SP was just 10p when Nanoco started its litigation case in Feb '20. That was a great entry price for me, but I've actually been an investor in Nanoco for around 10 years in total. Twice before I have completely sold out my holding for what turned out to be within 1p of the long term peak. The first time I did that was when the price was 120p as I had forecast (and stated on here at the time) that I thought the DOW deal was empty/ not working. I spoke about a fall to sub 50p levels, and got a lot of abuse from some people on here for it!! .The price fell to about 40p over the.next few months. I was back in sometime later at sub 20p and sold out at 50p which was again the long term peak just a few days before the Apple deal collapsed. I had been looking hard at Plessey technology and got cold feet. The price crashed to around 6p very soon after, and sometime after that I bought back in again, at 10p, for the right reasons as it turned out, and now three years later here we are.
I have built up a large stake since the 10p days, and made no sales at all during 2021 and for most of 2022, whilst during that period LOAM was a notable seller. I was forced to sell about 25% in Autumn '22, to release cash for a house move which completed in October and to appease my wife who wanted a bit of risk reduction (same reasons as LOAM except in an individual investor context!). I was happy to do that simply becase Nanoco had come to totally dominate my portfolio, and I wanted to buy some shares with different investment profiles. The rest I continue to hold and don't feel very inclined to sell. I bought 3 times since settlement news. Sold those shares at a loss this week (!) to buy other stock. To look at it coldy I have overall been a seller just like LOAM over the most recent period.
So I have had a great time following the fortunes of Nanoco and I have made a lot of good decisions on when to buy and more importantly when to sell, so much so that you might accuse me of knowing something...... But I don't. I only know as much as LOAM. I might have done a bit better than they have with my timing. I put it down to luck and the benefit of gaining a lot of experience investing in AIM small caps for 20 years since the early days of AIM. The biggest improvement I have made is detachment. I could sell everything tomorrow (for a thrd time) but if I do, then I don't know it now as I am happy to hold. At this point, however, when the case ends ths company is morphing from one type of company to another so that's a change, and I might reduce a bit. Others who have been on the same journey will do that too. But right now there is huge value in the historic
You missed my post stt1. Here is all you need to know. N is effectively selling off display business with this deal, and that totallly changes the risk profile.:
" Why would LOAM not sell part of their stake to bank some profits?? NANO is not one but TWO separate businesses. One is ending with Patent Peace (displays), and one is just getting started (sensors). As Hawi rightly points out they also undertake active portfolio management."
No stt1 that would be utter madness!! LOAM sold into a fast rising share price. That was sensible. They are waiting to find out the deal just are we all. It works both ways. I am sure they will be uber happy if it goes shooting up on the deal announcement. They won't be crying over the ones they sold (which is far less than they hold).
It really is not so hard to understand
Stt the answer is because they know no more than anyone else!! . They are prudently trimming some profit. It is not hard to understand. I think the LOAM selling scare mongering here is well and truly over. You have had your fun.
Why doesn't BT just weigh up a consensus of the views on this board to keep shareholders happy, stick it on a piece of paper, and ask Samsumg to agree.
If S is happy everyone is happy. Right now $500m would do it for me.
Why would LOAM not sell part of their stake to bank some profits?? NANO is not one but TWO separate businesses. One is ending with Patent Peace (displays), and one is just getting started (sensors). As Hawi rightly points out they also undertake active portfolio management.
Thank you for your persistence Hawi. I don't blame the others for quitting the debate though. I have enjoyed reading back over the posts from 6-9 Jan which I am now doing in my downtime instead of keeping up with current discussion here which is mostly pointless now.
I have just started on the morning of 9 Jan. It is interesting to see that many of the instant reactions then were IMO spot on, which is a big contrast with the convoluted garbage we have been subjected to since then.
NGR, that would be a good thing IMO. They have done their business! And well done to them!
I don't know about you but I can see a lot of value in the smaller company sphere right now, and that will be the same for maybe over the next 12-18 months. That's a buying opportunity, but selection is critical. I am already weighing up my options for my next Nanoco-style investment ride.
ShearClass, 9 Jan. Spot on IMO:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/interim-results-for-the-period-ended-31-january-2022
"Q10: Do the lower damages awards as reported by Edison ($200-250m) apply to the current litigation territory (US only) or to worldwide sales dependent on additional litigation?"
"The answer was yes to US only and historic only. 'So if you're using that as a baseline number ($200-250m) then you have to apply those multipliers for the future & the rest of the world'
IMO, the ongoing negotiations will be to thrash out exactly how the multipliers work for 'patent peace' on a global basis... given that US sales only represented 33% of global unit volume, I can't see how this doesn't result in a total payment that is higher than the current market cap..."
BTW I think Leoman's discount is conservative as it should be nearer the 20% mark for funder based on this being a bigger award.
Does anyone anyone else recall BTs comment he threw out in one of the investor presentations as an example of how a deal might be negotiated? He offered " 0.75% on 55 inch, 1.1% on 65 inch sales". I listened to it again last week.
I think we will be getting low end towards $200m for the US and a separate amount on top of that to wrap up a deal for the future royalties and non US sales. The more I've studied the words of tbe RNS the more that emerges as really the only sensible interpretation to give it. The tone of tbe RNS is one possible reason to expect less - but there are good reasons why N might have chosen to adopt a low key tone.
Gigs on 8 Jan, Bless him:
"Blitzed
Your post doesn’t quite add up because at #2 you refer to the market undervaluing due to risk. That’s a non-sequitur.
Other than that it seems fair comment to me based on Edison’s estimations of fair value.
The element you may be missing is that the court case is for US sales but there’s a strong likelihood of both a global settlement and an ongoing licence agreement, both of which would be substantially larger than historic US sales so the investment case from here might better be assessed on your appetite for those factors."