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It will clearly affect sentiment, but the US strikes have little bearing on the IOC's - Iraq - Kurdistan ITP debate; this comes down to regional economics and political leverage.

Note the consistent strikes from Turkey and Iran,

The more forceful US opposition to the growing Iranian presence may filter through to power shifts in parliament- Kurdistan has suddenly taken some radical political turns...as shown below.

The anti-US rhetoric is coming predominantly from the Iranian militias and other backed persons, e.g. Hussein al-Mosawi, Al- Maliki etc.

"Hussein al-Mosawi, spokesperson for Harakat al-Nujaba, one of the main Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, in an interview with media in Baghdad condemned the U.S. strikes, saying Washington "must understand that every action elicits a reaction." But he then struck a more conciliatory tone, saying that "we do not wish to escalate or widen regional tensions."

To put the Iranian presence in Iraq in perspective,

This article covered an Iranian militia leader in 2022. Aired on TV after Sudani's election in Iraq. It is well worth a read.

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/sudani-general-manager-how-militias-view-iraqs-new-prime-minister

It 'could' be interpreted that the Iranian Militia leader Qais al-Khazalitold just told the world that Iran would be running the show, not Iraq and Sudani should do as he was told.

"Militia leaders have stated that his authority will be limited to technocratic and bureaucratic matters, while they will dictate the country's strategic direction and security decisions—including the future U.S. presence in Iraq.

Khazali then described how the Coordination Framework and muqawama view Sudani as a "general manager." He elaborated on this role by recounting the agreement they struck with the prime minister: "The main point is that a differentiation between decisions of the state and managing the government was made...The prime minister must not monopolize the state's decisions; rather, [he must] refer to the Coordination Framework...for strategic decisions, whether political, economic, or security. Organizing the government...is the prime minister's business."

It makes you wonder how Sudani felt about that? It was reported he worked to maintain a US presence.

A documentary from two weeks ago: Iraq - Kurdish resistance to Iran's regime

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPoQGUk-t-E

I suppose this more or less answers your question Surfit

5h ago:

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/33945

After decades of divide, all of a sudden, overnight, they are seeing with one vision: Make of that what you will.

"The KDP and PUK officials also agreed to "jointly endeavor" to resolve the outstanding issues between Erbil and Baghdad, including budgetary disputes."

A major step forward.

Iraq politics is a complex beast, to say the least...

The Iraqi government has many factions, and some are Iranian-backed.

They have frustrated much progress in parliament, and it has been reported that figureheads say one thing to the public and another behind closed doors. This was supposedly the case for the prior American withdrawal.

It appears the US has gone after the Iranian regime members - Many are embedded in the Iraq military and politics - Also reported are assassinations of senior Iranian operatives in Iraq.

ValueS,

I've been referring to the 30-Aug-2023 Presentation: P3

$82m

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/09/GKP-H1-23-results-presentation-vf-1.pdf

It's helpful to re-watch the video presentation if you haven't already, as it explains the company's strategy to reduce the accounts payable.

From the last presentation: Proactively managing and reducing accounts payable.

I thought the company had done a good job maintaining cash and reducing accounts payable. We await the complete finances to see the accurate picture.

ValueS,

The balance of $82m is the same as in Aug 2023 - See half year results.

It was discussed that money would be employed to reduce Accounts Payable when optimum.

And now Germany,

https://x.com/krg_mope/status/1753133592593469780?s=46&t=x7jSf4uKpkEb1QjiK7BngA

Usa, France, UK, Germany.

All of a sudden, much to Iraqs embarrassment, Kurdistan is now front and centre in the geo-political spectrum and world news.

All eyes on Iraq now, for causing an economic/societal catastrophe on the very people they claim to be safeguarding under their ‘competent’ wing.

Kurdistan is getting more of the international spotlight.

It is very noteworthy, given a lot of this situation is politically driven.

The Iran strikes just put Kurdistan and Iraqs economic abuse of, on the front page.

Watch this space.

https://x.com/k24english/status/1753133953320460739?s=46&t=x7jSf4uKpkEb1QjiK7BngA

Iraq is about finally to ascend to the WTO. More interestingly, they chose JPMorgan to run the trade bank. An American bank.

"JPMorgan Selected to Run New Trade Bank in Iraq. Operating the bank, the Trade Bank of Iraq will give banks access to the financial system of Iraq, which has huge oil reserves foreign bank companies have not operated in the country since a policy..."

"Iraq's oil industry and other sectors, fostering economic growth. Which will assist with the Oil & Gas Law/HCL. Which the citizens have been asking for.

Member: Are you still excited Mark or is it wearing off?

MZ: Trying to stay grounded over the next day or two as we have..."

This could work really well for the IOC's when the Oil and Gas law is ratified...

May have something to do with the planned white house vist and the put the APIKUR statement in a different light.

What's holding the process up now is the removal of the speaker from the House of Representatives and the voting in of a new one. After that the O&G law can be processed. Iraqi politics.

This statement last year summed it up "KRG Natural Resources Minister Kamal Muhammad Salih last year said that the only obstacle to resume oil exports "is the production costs per barrel - the Iraqi budget has allocated $6/b for that"

The recent movement by Iraq to $20bbl cost oil indicates they plan to move forward. It coincidently happened after Baghdad had a motive to have the pipeline flowing - Iran relations got bad. Gas cut off, oil cargo's X2 (presently) sized and missiles strikes.

The budget can't take interruption stress.

With regards to the Iraq oil quotas.

That used to be the case, but now, with how the oil is marketed through SOMO and accounts received in Iraq, the Kurdistan government being paid a fixed allotment from Baghdad regardless of exports, it makes no difference if Iraq is exporting oil through the ITP or any other way.

(Notice the ships in the Gulf were taking oil to Turkey - A lot more costly and now unreliable process to export)

It's now all just Baghdad revenue. It makes no difference to Iraq if the ITP is flowing for quotas, though it does for export security and international relations with Turkey.

Belgrano makes some excellent points and the cost oil is highly relevant to GKP as it will allow development of the field.

The jump from $6 to $20 is in 'cost oil'. It's not the paid amount per bbl. It's part of the contracts that cover reimbursement for field development costs - An international opinion article conflated it. It's best to read the original statements.

Transportation costs per bbl then need agreeing,

Then, either the:

a) Profit share

b) Production share

The current negotiations were going well. Remember that the Oil and Gas Law is to resolve all outstanding disputes and legalize the fields.

The change to the cost of oil was a significant step -It seems to be conflated in current media with a fixed price reimbursement per bbl, which isn't the case. It was to cover field development costs etc

Legislation was being changed to allow for integration of the Kurdish contracts - I was frankly surprised by these moves.

Baghdad now has the motive to get the oil flowing - 2X oil tankers have been seized by Iran in the gulf now, and gas from Iran to Iraq has been cut off.

The Iraqi budget is so large that if they don't have consistent sales, they will default. When the budget was ratified relations with Iran were good. Not so now.

The Oil & Gas Bill was going through until the speaker got removed. The election of a new speaker is now underway.

The statement from the IOC's looks to just put more pressure on.

That was a good update all things considered.

GKP building cash while waiting is a huge positive.

The fact Iraq has negotiated and changed the cost oil reimbursement to $20bbl shines a light that they’re willing to give the IOC's unique contracts vs Iraqi issued.

Inishkeas NPV and commercially eclipses everything else for EOG. The market wrote it off.

Looking at the vermillion accounts, when they bought the extra 36.5% stake in Corrib, it had less than 0.5Tcf left.

In brief,

The case is against the KRG & Iraqi government.

The new Oil & Gas Law will bring all assets under Baghdad.

Baghdad is now desperate for gas; the new bid round 6 is only for gas assets. To exacerbate this condition, Iran just cut off gas supplies to Iraq.

After Dana Gas won their case, they were awarded a large gas license to develop by Bagdad with an Iraqi contract.

Considering Bagdad is in significant need of gas, and the Genel gas fields are the biggest in the region (And up there worldwide), they will need all outstanding legal claims cleared to be developed.

These fields are worth £10's Billions. 15TSCF onshore is off the scale.

Never expected Ireland to extend the licence—massive news. The NPV is well north of £1B for EOG. Look at the figures PRD gave for 1/2 the amount of gas and an inferior prospect - £1.2B in 2P reserves.

I don't think people have caught on just how massive this is.

Corrib was 1Tscf before depletion. It has maybe 5-10 years left.

Vermillion bought Equniors' 36.5% (Depleted reservoir) stake for £254m.

I will try and find out how much gas was left.

It's just massive for EOG. £10m market cap still.

It's not sure they're the amounts looked at, but going through the history, Genel had worked hard and took serious risks buying, proving-up and developing the licence ($1.4B cash costs) to have then the KRG basically turn around and take it off them after a more significant than expected discovery. Really bad form on the KRG's part.

They did the same to Dana around the same time over another gas field.

Decimated Genel.

They presented to institutions at Pareto E&P.

https://x.com/GenelEnergyplc/status/1751910212930248811?s=20

The case is still well under most people's radar, people will slowly catch on after the presentation and some research. For perspective, the gas fields are nearly the size of Leviathan in Israel - The one that allowed Israel to basically exist. But onshore. 🤯

Genel costs at break-even = Wait for ITP restart and legitimacy = Greater than 2X return and then a running 20% dividend yield.

Or

Court case = 7X - 19X

Mutually exclusive events.

Looks to me like people are discovering about the case.

Until the last presentation the company has been very quite about amounts and the ITP shut down has overshadowed it.

It's a 19 fold return off the Enterprise Value.

A few months normally jc_123

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/middle-east/exploration-production-middle-east/546439/local-sales-cost-cutting-and-patience-kurdistan-producers-hang-on/

“One catalyst identified by Genel is an arbitration case it is pursuing in London against the KRG, on the Miran and Bina Bawi licences. “Our claim is that the cancellation … was repudiatory and because of that we’ve suffered significant losses. We’ve spent $1.4 billion of cash acquiring and investing in these licences.”

News from our operator DNO,

DNO: HASN'T BEEN ASKED TO CUT OIL OUTPUT IN IRAQ KURDISH REGION

DNO: KURDISH GOVT IS ENCOURAGING COMPANY TO BOOST OIL OUTPUT

Good to see them confirm the $1.4B costs regarding the arbitration case. I think it's been overlooked by the market due to the pipeline shutdown. Dana Gas were successful.