Member Info for FCFY

The ‘Issue’ will most likely be resolved after the conflicts in the area have.

Iran have significant political leverage in Iraq.

What’s going on with the short here? Bit risky given all the data coming in?

It sounds to me like Baghdad are going to bypass Kurdistan and export via the now repaired Iraq pipeline to Turkey?

In non of the press releases does Sudani or the oil minister state export from Kurdistan.

“Iraq has completed the repair of the oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Fishkhabur, where test shipments of oil have been conducted.”

https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/22050

Well, after the Avacta placings shares have cleared, its back on its way to a fair valuation. They’ve also nearly cleared here - With it, the dross posting/time wasters will also. The placing market hasn’t been kind to many companies - a record number of de-listings and those unavailable to secure financing. Hemo did well, and for a reason.

Price always drives narrative - Just look back when this was 3p and compare the narrative. The only thing that has changed is that the company is better funded, further ahead and the economy is improving.

The ‘large sells’ were clearly buys. The share price price is the reckoner.

Not long now until the pond scum recceds and people realised what Mr Market offered in hindsight.

Placing shares are typically shifted a 3X volume. Large round lot sells. Standard.

It's the placing shares.

Is there a link to the group?

Someone made a good research list sometime ago. Reposting.

* GSK last paid $1.4 Billion for Aiolos Bio.

* Amgen purchased Horizon Therapeutics for $27.8 Billion

* Pfizer acquired Global Blood Therapeutics for $5.4Billion

* Pfizer bought Biohaven Pharmaceutical for $11.6 Billion in Cash

* Affinivax was bought by GSK for $ 2.10Billion

* AstraZeneca acquired CinCor Pharma for $1.8 Billion

* Thermo Fisher acquired PeproTech for $1.85 Billion

* Pfizer bought Arena for £6.7 Billion

* AZ paid 1 billion for KYM Bio and $2 Billion to partner Quell Therapeutics

* Eli Lilly acquired Versanis for $1.925 billion

* Astellas bought Iveric Bio for $5.9billion

* GSK paid £1.6Billion to buy Bellus

Looks like the placing shares are being nett off by someone. Round lots. Nearing the end of the churn.

Definitely has the hallmarks of the of mal-intent here.

Like others have stated, strange activiy from a few obsessives given the facts. There’s the regular funding takers who forward sold and are flipping the shares they got issued. In 3 weeks Avacta has done around £50m in volume, in a dead market. Quite incredible really.

It’s not often one sees something with the potential of Avacta.

The difference Vs other new drugs is the fact that Doxirubicin is a known and approved drug. Avacata are just providing a peptide carrier mechanism. Very different going on from standard new drug bio. They’ve just proved it worked in Dec.

Efficacy, Safety & Pharmacokinetics are all approved for Doxirubicin. Done.

And the phase 1 shows that the carrier has had extrodinay results for the saftey profile and concentrating doxorubicin at site.

= Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics greatly improved for Dox

US now turning up the pressure for export resumption. I presume with Russia cutting oil before the US elections, it will provide more impetios to have the KRG oil online.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/business/260320241

Noticible shift now with US backing and leverage.

The Arbitration hearing is now priced at call option money, with a growing cash reserve. It will make everything else pale in comparison.

£1.2B return and a current EV of £109M. 11X return. Not often the market presents an opportunity like this.

The company can't market it due to its nature. Historic examples have all been favourable to the companies.

Thought that was a fantastic set of results.

Genel are now banking some serious cash per month even under the current conditions.

FCF/EV around 34%

We’ll done to management.

Confident statements on the arbitration.

The pipeline news is old news, that’s been spun. The twitter account is an Anti-KRG, pro Iraqi Moniker.

A new speaker needs electing.

Budget passing.

Oil law ratified.

The pressure by America regarding Iraqs sanctions maybe the motivating factor for Iraq to get this done. Looks like they’re turning up the pressure.

Will this affect Eco's ability to secure a rig?

Jc,

The development was cheap onshore wells next to existing infrastructure. Genel was open to a partner, but the FDP covered a sequential startup and development from organic cash flow.

I would say that the KRG didn't expect the field to be a giant and geopolitically significant.

Genel's pre-exploration contract was very beneficial to the company. The likely scenario was that the KRG saw, after the discovery, that it was far more lucrative and geopolitically beneficial for them to pay out Genel and take the field.

Genel's costs were $1.4B. The KRG would have had to pay much of this anyway to develop the asset, and they didn't have the expertise. The exploration, testing and FDP is now done. It's a go-ready project they are now, in a way, purchasing for cost.

It would be possible for the KRG to settle early, but the case is underway, and it will legally clear the field of all disputes in the future.

Arbitration will be underway soon.

Around £1.5B in cash or an asset with an NPV worth over 10X that.

Given the case structure and the monies and commitment given by Genel, it will likely be one or the other.

The FDP for the gas assets was for start-up rates of 0.75BCF a day or 273BCF a year.

Mindblowing numbers.

Leveitahn in Israel produced 2.2BCF/d in 2022 and earned $ 2.3 B in revenues.

Genel's gas assets are on-shore and significantly cheaper to operate.

As one poster has already laid out, considering Cash and Receivables etc, the company trades for free at this price. Below here, you get paid to own the future production.

The political aspect of what is going on is critical. The Iranians have been causing a lot of trouble in the parliament of Iraq and elsewhere.

Take a look at the 'independent' Mustafa Jabbar Sanad for example:

https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq-News/Iraq-s-federal-court-rules-monthly-remittances-to-KRG-as-unconstitutional

He's frustrating the negotiations between Baghdad and Kurdistan, undermining the salary transfer and, hence, trust.

The forceful US pushback and spoken commitment to maintain that will weaken this Iranian sphere of influence somewhat, giving the Iraqi and Kurdish legitimate space to operate - i.e. Getting laws passed.

It may be too early to tell, and Iraq politics is open, but it looks to me like Sudani has been waiting for the right moment and has just come out swinging hay-makers at the Iranians. The last thing he wants is for Iraq to become an Iranian proxy.

It's also good to keep in mind the recent Iran attacks on Kurdistan and the joint Kurdish-Iraqi response to Iran.

During his tenure, he has repeatedly pressed to halt corruption. The bank sanctions constitute a significant move on the back of strikes against the Iranian militias- These banks laundered USD money for smuggling Iranian oil through Iraq...A significant blow to the Iranians. It's these actions that speak to Sudan's true position.

If that's correct, we should start seeing more progress in parliament regarding the speaker election and the oil and gas law.

Two telling concessions Bagdad has made to pass the Oil and Gas Law and have all hydrocarbons under one umbrella:

Allowing Production Sharing: Previously illegal under Iraqi law

Cost Oil increase from $6 - $20

The only practical reason for these allowances is the willingness to integrate the KRG contracts.

Recently from DNO,

They stated this was misinformation. Regardless it makes no odds for the ITP opening; it's now an advantage for Iraq after the negotiation concessions made by Kurdistan.

DNO: HASN'T BEEN ASKED TO CUT OIL OUTPUT IN IRAQ KURDISH REGION

DNO: KURDISH GOVT IS ENCOURAGING COMPANY TO BOOST OIL OUTPUT

Once the Oil and Gas Law is ratified, the ITP revenues go into Iraqi accounts through SOMO.

For OPEC quotas sake, it makes no odds if they are pumping through the ITP or other routes from that point on. But the pipeline will be more reliable and cheaper than shipping.

They have to pay the Kurdish goverment their 12.5% budget allocation regardless.

By reopening the ITP they have an extra export route and a political lever towards Turkey.

Iraq's budget is so tight it may go bankrupt if it doesn't hit its export targets, and Iran has already disrupeted two shipments of Oil. One was confirmed to be for Turkey.

Given how the recent events play out re Iran militias, I would say export security will be front an center for Iraq.

But they need the speaker electing to proceed passing the law.

And, from Reuters: Big news

"IRAQ has banned eight local commercial banks from engaging in U.S. dollar transactions, taking action to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of U.S. currency days after a visit by a top U.S. Treasury official."

"Western officials have lauded cooperation with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani towards carrying out economic and financial reforms meant to curb the ability of Iran and its allies to access U.S. dollars, and to bring the Iraqi economy into line with international standards."

It was well known for a long time these banks were funding Iranian-backed militants.

This is surely happening too quickly, not to be arranged.

And 30mins ago, another assassination of senior Iranian operative in Iraq: Naji Al-Kaabi,

A prominent leader of - 'Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH) - An Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militia that encourages and conducts attacks against the US diplomatic and military presence in Iraq...

https://x.com/thestevennabil/status/1754224459240874278?s=20

Significant shifts are happening quickly.