bad timing16 Jun 2014 15:23
I dipped my toes in here with a small speculative buy at 7.4p on Thursday, only for the trading warning to arrive on Friday saying revenues were going to be behind expectations.
It's disappointing that they left investors waiting for news for so long just to say they wont be getting close to forecasts for the year made by N+1 Singer, which management felt they were likely to exceed in Feb/March according to certain news articles. Yes the potential larger contracts are still in the pipeline, but we have very little guidance on when they are likely to be signed, and in fact the likelihood of them being signed at all. I certainly did not get the impression from the update that any of the "substantial potential new orders" are likely to be signed before the results are released in September, despite the term "advanced stage of discussion" being applied. Call it reading between the lines if you like but I see little reason to increase my investment in Transense at this time with the current valuation, as I believe it still factors in a certain amount of future growth.
I don't want to sound overly negative about the company because their revenue growth is still quite impressive, the major issue is the projections made by the BoD at the time of the interim results. Always better to project pessimistically and beat expectations, rather than vice versa, and historically the 2nd half has been much weaker for TRT even with the overall growth in revenue. The issue now for TRT is whether the market will trust their future projections, especially if they continue to forecast what appear to be almost best-case-scenario figures.
Just my opinion but in the absence of big news causing a wave of buying pressure, I can see the SP drifting south of 6p over the summer and possibly testing for support around 5p. I'm not going to bother selling my small number of shares at a loss now, as I believe that in the next 18-24 months anything under 10p will look like a bargain buy and I bought with the medium-term in mind, but I would be wary of the risk of buying now after the initial drop to lower your average, only to see the SP continue to drift downwards in the absence of any buying.
Obviously this is just my opinion and I urge anyone interested in TRT to do their own research and draw their own conclusions.
I would be interested to hear any other views. ATB!