blowster, maytheforcework20 Feb 2012 10:59
I was hoping the research I posted last night may have instigated some discussion, especially regarding the booking of revenues. It concerns me slightly that I suggest the way they calculate their revenues is a form of skulduggery, and none of the shareholders on this board contest or challenge such statements.
I suppose it is re-assuring that the company is approaching breakeven despite income (after 93% of top-up revenue passed on) being only a fraction of what many believe it to be, because of the misleading nature of MBO's revenue recognition.
As I have said, there is potential for MBO to be a serious player in the payments and remittance markets of South East Asia, but I believe they require a global strategic partner (perhaps CMT/Sigue Corp) and a significant improvement in PR and Shareholder relations.
I personally feel, barring any revelations from the supposed trading update, the company is slightly over-valued, based on the forecast profits and eps, and this view is supported by the usually over-optimistic Allenby, who put a forward P/E ratio of 5.4 on FY2012 expected profit before tax of £741,000, so they see fair value at circa £4million.
However, this valuation could change rapidly if we recieve a positive update on the relationship with Coinstar Money Transfer Limited, now owned by Sigue Corp, or results are better than forecast, or they source a powerful strategic investor, or announce big deals etc etc.
For the time being I have decided to stay on the sidelines with this one, as I feel that even if the current rising trend continues, there is a good chance that resistance at 8p would be overpowering. I will continue to keep a close eye on the SP and general developments though, and if it was to bounce off 8p resistance and settle somewhere below the current SP, I would quite possibly be looking for a buying opportunity.
For the record, the advertised ask has just dropped to 7.25p, and the real ask is down to 7.15p for up to 150,000 shares, but you can only sell a max of 75,000 at 6.51p.
Out of interest has anyone on this board contacted the company to inquire as to the likelihood of a trading update this week?
The SP has risen by approximately 1p from the start of February, and over 2p from the lowest point of the month, probably in anticipation of a trading update towards the end of this month. If I was holding here and that update was not going to be forthcoming, I would want to be the first to know!
I might rattle off an email to MBO this evening if I find the time, but I imagine someone here has already done so, or is at least considering it!
ATB guys, I'm sure I will catch up with you all soon, either here or elsewhere! GLA