Member Info for fatprofits

To make 1.37 on FY '25 may be optimistic, around 1.20/25

perhaps more realistic.

Around 16, as mentioned much below would surprise me -

if a recession hits and earnings begin to fall more sharply,

then I would need to reassess.

GRG has US competitors, McDonald's and I'm guessing subway is also part of a US controlled business, that's before considering Starbucks, Costa, which is no longer owned by Whitbread..etc.

As per my previous post..

Https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/strategy/use-of-glp-1-drugs-by-dieters-may-impact-snack-brands#:~:text=GLP%20%2D%201%20drug%20adoption%20is,to%20primarily%20weight%2Dloss%20users.

Appreciate the reply.

It's not a business I know well, I have occasionally shopped in Home Bargains.

Action (3i holding) may possibly be impacting their French business, Action operates outside of the UK - for now and

is growing incredibly quickly.

If I may ask, who are those other UK listed retailers making

17% return on capital employed..

Thanks in advance.

Looks around 13 X earnings.

There are likely to be some downgrades to FY 25 estimates

and the possibility of further disappointment to come.

I would be surprised to see this much below 16 a share.

Discounting lease liabilities they are in a net cash position,

there's also inherent flexibility in the operating model with ongoing store repositioning, closing less profitable outlets.

Bakers Oven was from memory their last significant acquisition circa 1994, so the business has grown organically for years.

The SP was pushed to a ludicrous multiple predicated on rates of growth that were unsustainable - I mentioned this many times on another investor site, so the unwind, although very sharp, is not surprising. Markets tend to overreact in either direction, so calling a low price is largely guesswork.

Longer term I would be more concerned about the wide scale adoption of Glp1 inhibitors and further advancements in this area. I've mentioned this here recently.

Good post

£13, not holding atm but that is ridiculous.

Any views

Problem is they have the net debt and pension deficit within

the context of potential tarrif threat.

The BOD could have chosen to aggressively pay down debt instead of acquisition spend.

I hope that turns out to be the correct decision.

Thanks

Is too high imv. It's now depressing the SP as the

market begins to question sustainability.

TW entered the GFC with approx £1 bn in net debt.

At the height of the financial crisis it was effectively priced

to go bust.

Any views on the respective merits, or otherwise ..? Thanks

* apologies if my post was inaccurate - I had a the dentist and dental hygienist appointment this morning and because of this had a quick glance - £149!! - got to love living in Weybridge!.

TW has adopted a significantly different dividend payout strategy to others in the listed sector - so as an investor you are arguably exchanging potential lower future growth for a higher annual payout.

I would agree they are arguably directing too much cash in to the dividend payout.

Landbank holdings are little changed, I don't see a run down at all, it's minus 1,000 plots - that's negible for a business of this size.

Not holding atm.

Appears to be increasing..

Tariff threats..?

Yes they manufacture in the US, however

do RNO need to import raw materials from

other countries to complete the manufacturing process?.

A complete lack of any recent director share buys

given current SP levels..