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I’ve seen there is a EGM tomorrow at 11am.. can’t find the reasoning as yet.. can anyone shed some light?
Thx all.
Thanks for sharing, a very impressive , detailed piece of research
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Thanks
Ted
I’m not sure I wholly agree.. just because the previous Chairman was well incentivised doesn’t not mean he did a good job.. it would appear the loan deal was not good business and quite restrictive in respect to conditions on draw down.. the fundamentals appeared good any the wider management had done a good job in expanding the storage capability in San Antonio...sales and expansion going nicely... the exit of John Samuel’s
Would likely have happened sooner if John Glenn was able to extract from covenants from his previous Co.. he knows the company and has a very good track record ... lots of strong underlining fundamentals here apart from the financing structure.. we had even paid back the first part of the loan immediately... we are now ripe for a takeover of the funding isn’t fixed quickly.. we need around £19-12 M as a minimum as I see it.. possibly more to give headroom... if it was looking like an asset strip we would know by now is my take... all IMO
The asset book values the business ay1.75p absolute worst case ... c7p with the IP and product capability...again all IMO . Please fee free to correct me.
Thanks Groover
Do you have a link / source for your thread?
Cheers
Tomvisual - the potential LAMP testing development is clearly another significant positive for NCYT.. once confirmed and with the recent news from US re TF testing equipment getting FDA approval it is further strength to the cause and all creating further top end prospects.
Re SP and potential.. we really could be anything, as I mentioned previously the spike on Thursday was no accident and likely shorters having to correct their position... there will be none left now that’s for sure.. I can only see a takeover here and very quickly..the cost to acquire will move from £6-700m to £2bn+ Once sales figures are reported... we all know they will be incredible numbers... manufacturing outputs ANS scale are what we will hopefully like to see first... without a takeover the sage will likely be moving to FTSE as I’m sure the company will be actively preparing for.
Would expect Nova to have a dilution potentially to offer more share availability/liquidity.
The how testing aspect seems to be where AVCT are .. their test is akin to a pregnancy test.. they seem bullish around mid may to have a test and have a JV with £bn partner to do so..
Re antibody teat.. the only bullish comment I have picked up was AStZ CEO saying the team... are working hard at developing and antibody test and he is very hopeful of success... the current team re testing includes Nvct, GSK etc...
The connection is ThermoFisher.. also connected to Yourgene in UK who Novacyt announced as manufacturing partner in RNS.. Thermafisher own 7% of Yourgene
Wrong link
I saw the Yourgene RNS and also the German company... which is all great... but 4mn a month doesn’t scratch the need... especially whilst there are only NCYT and Roche capable from a quality perspective
AStZ are supporting with reagent sourcing... we have not heard yet what GSK are supporting.. we can all assume, but I haven’t picked up what part they play... and as they said in Jaws.. were gonna need a bigger boat.. 4mn a month is just not enough.. it doesn’t support UK alone for 1 month given the drive is to get the world moving again..
Am I the only one that believes there needs to be a further update re manufacturing capability before sales... you could sell billions of the tests ... who will make them.. latest update was 2million tests per month... we need to show monumental scale or the sales are just fizz if you can’t make them quickly enough.. the pressure on Govn is monumental given the rate of mortality.
I could be mistaken or missed GSK’s involvement??
Thanks Jarv
I’ve seen that grid .. it came out prior to the JV announcement and the WHO accreditation.. so slightly out of date numbers however the principles clearly still apply.. the sales line is now clearly out of scale.. as we already know that 18mn based on raw mats has been purchased 2 weeks ago..it’s a high need limited resource product ... it would be interesting to understand how this chart scales...
Domestic market alone will be c30-50mn tests and we are looking at 3m per month at 100k per day by end may... how many countries ... the big question for me isn’t sales... you could take 3bn orders.. how/ where will they be made... and quickly to come out if lockdown..the economic pressure, whilst on a human level is deplorable and clearly a real one... whilst there is no antibody test, people will be tested more than once surely...
Thanks Wolfgang
Do we honestly think it will get to the end of the year??? I really jay cannot see why anyone would wait for sales volumes to fly... and we know they will...
I just can’t see it, If manufacturing scale into 100’s millions is confirmed this is a £bn marcap business... comfortably... sounds glib... when you do the math it is incredible... sales and mfacturing have to be confirmed soon... especially with the SP volatility... there is a responsibility to communicate.
Also manufacturing capability as per last news from NCYT attached
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/novacyt-increases-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-test--7380946.html
Only 2m tests per month .. but lots of scale... has there been additional detail on scalable manufacturing volumes?
Researchers out there please advise gents.
I’m pretty new to this filling time whilst ‘day job’ is on hold! Looking at the path and likely window.. there is a strong likelihood that others will develop test that are equally proficient.. Avacta for one looks to be tracking give their recent RNS.. the window is immediate and governments will be ordering now as I see this.
We still haven’t seen any production partnerships save for the RNS end March in U.K... we haven’t heard what the manufacturing capability is, AStZ have said they will supply the reagents.. have I missed what GSK’s part is in the partnership?
On a basic commercial basis this HAS to be a takeover ... I’ve seen numerous models based on Sales / costs per test / EBITDA and marcap... but the PE would be very hard to pin as the circumstances are pretty unique.. feels dotcom and think of a number.
If I was looking to acquire this business I would get very close, assess key fundamentals / IP/ pipeline and lock in key people/ look at sales figures / orders and get a bid in before they come out to market. Which makes the window all ways around a very short one.
I’ve read that the test are priced at c £8.50 per test, margin in that unsure... 18m tests currently ordered as per last RNS and pre JV/WHO announcements.
On sales of £100m (conservative) UK alone will need over 50m to test the population
100m a£8.5 - turnover £850m EBIT at £2 profit per test £200m PE of 8( very, very conservative) gives a marcap if £1.6Bn ( 68m shares ) and a share price c£23 give or take..???
Re the spike this surely was a leak of information and someone building a huge holding very quickly also to trigger auto positions re selling price?
The more informed out there please feel free to educate / correct me... cheers Ted
Am I the only observer that thinks AStZ have been quite clear in their role here.. the reagents /Chen’s required for the test is their role in the JV..
GSK seem to have been very quiet?
I’m not sure why they need to be alone on the positive trial.. if it is a ****tail but an integral ingredient the net effect is the same???
The key is whether it’s Alpha interferon or Beta Interferon.. Synergain only have Beta.. as I understand it... the more informed out here please feel free to correct me...
Thanks Simon will take a look.
Who else are attached to NCYT in making this happen? Has anyone else done the research.. I’ve seen Bruker associated.. not sure to what degree? Has anyone else followed the chain?
Appreciate any steer from the wider , more informed amongst us?
TY in advance:-)
The question around value will be impossible untill we get sight of profit per test... sales price was £8.60 per test previously.. that may we’ll have changed now given the collaboration and also the sub contract to Yourgene on Mfacture...at £8.60 profit I’ve seen quoted profit per test was north of £2... 7.7bn people, our test is 1-2 hours and multi platform compatible.. Roche is apparently24 hrs and only works on their own platform ... please feel free to correct me on the research guys...value and EBIT / PE is pick a number atm...but great all the same... I can only see a takeover here... it’s a case of WHEN not IF... IMO