RE: You've been waiting for it, haven't you?31 Aug 2023 14:41
@Harchris - Don't recall the March one, but in ARC's April post they had the text below:
Given that production looks to be a bit lower than their mid point estimate, and costs have been up a bit (offset a lot by the Rand falling) their figures are broadly in line on a positive spin, but really a bit weaker (so a 9-12p range). Of course this excludes the value of the Enerox/Cellcube holdings
We currently trade at a substantial discount to fire-sale NAV .... but that is AIM all over - only takes a bit of the spotlight and boom !
"Estimates and valuation unchanged: With annual production and cost guidance maintained, our 2023 estimates (which assume around the mid-point of Bushveld’s guidance range) are similarly unchanged. We continue to expect year-on-year earnings growth in 2023, though we will closely monitor the progress of Vametco and Vanchem and movements in the vanadium market as the year progresses (our estimates assume a flat US$40/kg FeV price, broadly in line with the year-to-date market average). Given the relatively high fixed component of its cost base, Bushveld’s ambition to expand production in stages to 5,000-5,400t pa over the medium term and to c.8,000t pa over the longer term (initiatives it will only sanction once near-term targets are achieved and funding secured) would widen margins further. An expansion would increase our NPV estimate by c.60% – our 12p/sh valuation (diluted for assumed refinancing of US$35m of group convertible debt due in November) includes just 0.5x of this incremental uplift, reflecting uncertainty over timing, funding and opex structure. As with our estimates, our 12p risk-weighted and dilution-adjusted valuation is highly levered to vanadium price, but also to the eventual structure of any refinancing of Bushveld’s maturing convertible debt."
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