Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Except of course your diesel cannot expend that energy as fast .. it burns (relatively slowly and at lower temperature. An EV battery can go into thermal runaway and expend much of the energy very very fast ... big bang !
You are comparing apples & oranges to make in invalid point
The way the eye witnesses describe .. sounds EV related .... interesting that some insurers are shoving premiums up by 70%+ and some now declining to insure them ..
Just wait for house insurance to put a clause in for a garaged EV !
So They expect EBITDA to go up in '24 to a positive $12m and $22m in '25 with an av realised price of $33.6 and $35.2/kg respectively .... rather ignores the nitrovan premium and at that price, Largo wont be producing at all creating a demand shortage
Is it me of does their new target of 3.00p have a distinctly false ring to it .. very handy for the now oft discussed 3p strike price expectation for Orion
And no value for the Cellcube ownership either !
Takes no account of the energy side and whilst I agree, VERL, Belco & Be are zero, that is not really the case for Cellcube... perhaps why CC rather pointedly talked about 'retiring some debt'
Personally, I would be happy to see Cellcube sold off prior or on float and a whole raft of CLN's retired ... CLN's are a sea anchor on everything
not a huge amount in the overall picture has changed from the bnp paribas report of 26th may to the one in sept. yes, fm has gone, cost control and production stabilisation measures have been implemented and continuing to develop.
so a tad perplexing that in 3 months they have a valuation of 4.80-6.80 in may and 1.70-2.70 in sept.
mostly it seems they have changed their view on net profit from (7.1) and 1.6 for '23 & '24 to (18.5) and (45.1)
but this adjustment is mostly down to imparement charges on the balance sheer and some additional expenses to do with operations and the must **** up.. again, mostly a paper charge, and yet in '25 they raise their estimate of net profit from 7.3 to 8.6 (despite lower vanadium pricing assumption.
it is even better if you consider their estimate of net debt/editda at 2.7, 1.5 and 0.9 for '23-'25 in may to 5.8, 1.1 and 0.5 in sept
it seems counter intuitive, that a deal that reduces current debt and liability, reduces medium and long term debt and takes zero account of the cellcube value and (understandably belco, verl & be) carries a higher risk premium.
all smells a bit of being helpful to orion in driving the strike price down.
problem is, bmn have no where to go and just have to bend over .... if only one of craig's rich mates would come in eh !!
I would disagree with that a little ... Orion get a share of revenue, but the company has to be around to make a revenue. Driving the convert price ever lower just dilutes everyone making the company less attractive.
And if the agreement (based in no small part on BNP's report) had a strike price of 6p, if that becomes continually open to change then it is a charter for malevolence in manipulation
That was good ... lots and lots of very positive and reassuringly stuff. One thing I picked up was the Orion deal needing various regulatory docs and approvals, not least shareholder. The timing of an SPG is normally circa 3 weeks I think. Given Tanya said the technical deadline is 21 Dec, that suggests the deal is aimed to be done and dusted by the end of Nov to allow time for the SGM (which the markets will see as a foregone conclusion). So my guess is somewhere around the week of the 20th Nov for the announcement
Also very clear emphasis that SPR are chomping at the bit and he expects that part of the deal (buying Vanchem) will be much much sooner .. that again will be a significant market positive (no one pays millions into a death-spiral with the inside info they have)
I said the other day I am not interested in FM v CC, but look to the future. There will be plenty wantlng to have a go at FM, but perhaps we should all just recognise we are here now, he had is day and well past his sell-by date and now we have some real mining operational competence at the helm.
Lets just focus on the future
Yup @uksteveg .. $45/$55 was the range FM & MN had long ago identified as the 'sweet spot' that was acceptable to steel and electrolyte manufacturers .... if CC manages to get the AI costs down close to $30, then a very very profitable business
Not picking a fight Pdub .. your comment rather ignored the precarious place FM left the scene and just how much and how fast CC has fixed some things and put others in fix... to rather suggest 'the jury is out' rather misses he has achieved more operationally in 3 months than FM has (arguably) achieved in 3 years.
I have said before I don't wish ill on FM, but it was my view last year he should have gone (as was it others) and it seems to be a mixture of the cliff edge approaching and the Chairman woke up and/or Orion saying his departure was a requirements. It is very easy to chuck rocks and yes he achieved much, but from an investor view has rather presided over a managed decline of shareholder value.
We repeatedly berated and called him out on clarity and comms. 18 months ago I was sent some detail on the strategic comms plan of which nothing happened.
In the end, the market lost faith and could not see him being a winner (Its a tough world in the big chair but he was well paid for it). As for Craig, everything I have read about the man seems to be right given his actions, delegation and clarity of thought... he smells like a winner and above everything, SPR & Orion will have wanted to see & feel that. We don't know for sure, but seems very probably that SPR was brought in by CC.
As for the deal details, I thought the RNS's gave the substantive parts we needed to know ?
Lets leave FM v CC to the filtered trolls. I frankly am only interested in the future
@Pdub "I have also said that I am waiting for resolution of Orion, SPR, MUST and BE before judging Craig’s performance"
Erm..... "Going Concern is dependent on the Orion deal" was what was said - I read that as 'no deal - bust !'.... what rather seems clear is that resolution could not realistically have occurred under FM - I am much impressed by what CC has achieved in 3 months. A whole raft of fairly basic things really with clearly site visits and reviews... you do wonder in FM ever left his office !
Interesting how lucid and detailed Tayna was as well - she was never allowed to say much (neither was any one else) with FM about
FM had a great vision, but it seems clear to me he left the company right on the edge. I don't however think there is much doubt the deal won't happen. Not only have SPR put in a load of working capital, but CC was talking about sequencing the deals and saw no reason the Vanchem and Mokopane sale would not be before the Orion part which would finalise the strike price for the $12.5m injection. The future value to both SPR and Orion is dependent on the deal - they make a lot of money in the years to come.
We also have Lemur disposal ($3-$5m maybe), the Cellcube (via Enerox share) on float (Q1 next year ? .. $150m+ giving us $30m+) .... Belco.. There should be some pre-prod (5-10k litre) sales from the 10 vendors any time and production sales Dec/Jan (from the timing he already gave).. although I would expect they wont be confirmed until after the Deal is signed
Certainly a tight spot, but not hard to see the picture vastly changing very fast