RE: RE: CORBS27 Sep 2020 12:11
1/2
Well if you look in the last 18 months to 2 years then many stocks are lower, but that is not an investment timeframe, but a trading one. And before anyone goes all keyboard warrior, that is, in my opinion. (Don't mean you @bassguy ha ha)
Those who invested 7 years ago at circa 5p, I just point out (and made no comment on risk) that 12.6% annualised would not be considered a bad investment. I got in first at 2p, then 1.6p and a big tranche back at just over 2p about 4.5 years ago. On that large block my annualised rate is 47.5%, although my average now is around 6 because I have bought in the last couple of years particularly as risk fell.
My point is not one of risk, and Alfa makes the excellent point that pretty much all the risk has been taken out. Just look at the headlines:
- 74% ownership of Vametco - full control of the cash-flows
- Full ownership of Vanchem - heading for 25-30% of total production
- production de-risk with multiple sites
- BE Electrolyte plant that will be operational within 6 months
- Mokopane licence granted so future offcut revenues are possible short term
- VFRB partnerships and stakes to complete the vertical integration
etc .. etc .. etc ...
If VFRB crashes and burns, in 3 years we should hit 8,400mtv. With a slightly higher vanadium price in the $30-$35 range that should net circa $100M profit, and if VFRB does fly, then a lot more
Whatever happens.. win win... risk largely removed. Despite the poor comms and PR, FM has a long term strategic vision and despite a few setbacks and delays has really delivered on it.
So whilst those getting in at the start (many having met personally FM and bought into the story and the man) have had a long hold, those who got in at the 50p peak will just have to take a proper investment timeframe to hold (ie longer that less than 2 years).
Whilst we are on AIM, we will always be subject to both manipulation and lack of visibility - we are after all seen as a one product minor commodity miner in a junk status country. Thing is, unlike the lazy bolly-swillers, we actually know how good the investment is and how solid the finances are.
How did Buffet get really rich ? - Bought unloved, undervalued companies whose underlying fundamentals were solid and had strong potential and grew the value.
I made my point not to rub anything in, or bandy what-if points of time, but to demonstrate that those who invested and held long term have already made pretty decent returns ... just no where near what is to come.
Buffet likes a timeframe of 20-30 years. At 12.6% annualised that is more than 1000% at 20 years and 3,500% at 30 years.