RE: Time to play Q1?29 Mar 2017 23:07
I will go for 13384 hereandnow. I reckon q1 2016 will be hard to match and they haven't quite got to grips with the supply issue. It is true more of the company's own plantations will be coming on stream but the reliance on smallholders is probably proving trickier than expected, though very ethical.
I am discounting January's bullish statement as the q3 production update said "October 2016 has to date seen a pick-up in volumes of fresh fruit bunches collected for processing." But q4 update said "Following strong like for like sales in October 2016 fresh fruit bunches ('FFB'), quantities were lower than expected in November and December. " Remember the q3 statement had the benefit of two weeks of October production. Q4 2016 statement in January barely had a week including New Years day to gauge production.
As I really think we need to ramp up to full production and given March is the first month of the high season I would only be happy with 16000 plus myself. I would like to see 50000t produced this year so we would need to do around 34000 by q2 given the usual two thirds H1/ One third H2 split for CPO.
I am very content with the high CPO price but need to see DKL capitalise on it, The company need to track upwards the high prices or else come clean on our recent disconnect between the two. I am hoping for the best but am wary and they haven;t delivered for me in the last tthree production updates,
There is also a news vacuum that needs filling.
My money is on the Q4 update coming immediately after Easter unless it is sparkling.