RE: Worth7 Nov 2018 08:25
Align agree. The 3p sp is based on a fraction of that.
These potential target prices may look high compared to the current market price, but that is largely, in our view, due to the shares being tremendously oversold and that fears over a drawn out litigation/arbitration process have held the stock back. As per the RNS yesterday, it seems to us that Oilex are now in a strong position and that there will very likely to be political pressure within India to come to a resolution, finally.
We believe by any conventional yardstick that the shares are very inexpensive. We also point out that the true potential at the Cambay Field PSC is a lot higher – the 145 Bcf planned to be produced until 2029 represents just a fraction of the resources here. We in fact see our model and our valuation as actually representing a base case that does not account for further extension or an even larger expansion. An additional government approval would be required to extend the PSC beyond 2029.
We initiated coverage on Oilex in November 2017 with a target price of 1.60p and a Conviction Buy stance. Given the events of recent weeks and the points highlighted here where the base value is near 3 times the stock price and the “blue sky” multiples of this, we believe that the current price now provides an even more attractive risk/reward entry than when coverage was initiated. Accordingly we remain resolute buyers at this level.