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According to CNBC Amazon talks are at the exploratory stage and Spokesman quoted “we have no plans to add wireless at this stage”.

Any plan would start in USA so any threat would coincide with growing BT profitability from Fibre roll out.

Agree with the AI versus Stupid I comments below. Load up on possible,maybe,perhaps threats and ignore the bankable positives.

Look back and you’ll see it’s a frequent occurrence, especially around results updates regardless of whether they’re good or bad . A teenage scribblers musings on altnet developments have also been known to take the price down.

Sometimes it’s not just being paranoid…….sometimes they’re really out to get you !

Would the share price have dropped if OFCOM hadn’t agreed Equinox?

Probably.

This share always responds to the slightest negative messages whether factual or not.

Positive messages make no difference………mystifying

True 😀. I was the most optimistic (and wrong!!) . Know all about pension,debt,alt nets etc etc but in most exchanges this would be trading 50% higher.

One day reason must prevail:)

But isn’t that as part of previously announced contributions?it isn’t new is it? The results call covered pensions and the FD said they were continuing support as previously agreed.

I missed that,where is it announced?

IP3……. Unfortunately I think you’re probably right in believing the government could change their position on a BT sale they’re not capable of doing what they said they’d do!

IP3….It’s anyone’s guess but there are other factors I.e. Improving Pension deficit, faster than planned FTTP roll out meaning capital spend will reduce sooner,tax breaks on capital spend, many operating cost savings , competitors in the market in trouble due to over optimistic business plans, independent values put on Openreach and EE that are more than twice todays market cap without allowing for other BT businesses . In addition Drahi and the Germans underwater on their investments and not renowned for being serial losers.

revenue may not fly in the near future but there’s every chance that profits and FCF will increase significantly in the next three years.

BT is supposed to be a national asset so much so that the government has intimated that they wouldn’t allow a foreign takeover so we can assume that as well as restrictions that implies a degree of protection from outside negative influences.UK market valuations are a fraction of those in the USA and that could change very quickly if government changes and UK companies became in vogue again for international investors.

I think your estimates allow for all the winds against progress but largely ignore the potential for gains.

We will see…….. my bet is well over £2 by the end of 2024.

Revenue is circa 4billion…..an even better buy!

I’d just point out that my comment wasn’t a criticism of Fleccy’s posts at all.

It was certainly a criticism of the superficial stuff that comes out of various analysts and “professionals “.

Watched it, nothing new I didn’t think.

Given that markets supposedly are forward looking I don’t really understand why analysts guesses on current quarter results are given such credence .

SP will probably go down because will BT announce something that isn’t identical to someone else’s guess.

Whilst writing this I see Fleccy’s comment on the video.

With the greatest of respect for Fleccy’s undoubted knowledge of BT it does puzzle me that a retired engineer / amateur investor comes up with a more reasoned and objective assessment of the share than an investment professional.

Crozier appointed in 2021 on £700k p.a. with a plan to increase shareholder value.

That’s going well isn’t it?

Hi Simon,

Just checked your posting history and find you’ve been negative on this share for the past two years.

Just out of curiosity why do you have anything to do with it?

Ironic Indeed ??,

It’s been mentioned many times on this site that highly leveraged new entrants were always going to be at a disadvantage to BT as their market knowledge was less and BT was not in hock to lenders as they are.

They rely on BT being hobbled by OFCOM in the name of fair competition but their business model has built in disadvantages that they won’t make public.

I mentioned earlier that ZZoomm has achieved a 7% penetration on their installed base. I’d wager that the business plan they used to get backers on board promised three or four times that.

The only thing that will stop BT becoming a market leading cash cow in the medium term with valuations double today is over regulation and government interference.

Our so called business friendly government likes to interfere in markets so it’s fifty fifty whether will succeed but barring that they must be a sure bet.

It’s probably all BT’s fault…….retribution coming from OFCOM shortly.

Telegraph today reports ZZoom laying of fifty percent of workforce and new customer take up of only 7% of total properties passed.

Bodes well for BT.

Add in some good news on the 18th and for a change I think we may see a jump on the 18th.

I’ll be optimistic and go for 178.8

That sounds like an area where OFCOM could use its government connections to get a small bill through parliament double quick and add some value to the roll out.

Yes that’s a balanced view of the situation. The price is almost back at what it was before the OFCOM letter ……….interesting to see if another negative article appears in the coming week to keep the price down.

Aus, the only thing I’d say on your “BT is exposed” point is that BT is funding its roll out from existing revenue streams. The altnets are all leveraged to the hilt. This should allow BT to treat the investment as one that can be recovered over a much longer term than any altnet can afford when they have their lenders desperate for a quick return.

I think the key words are “unexpected reluctance to take fibre” . At the heart of this debate the issue isn’t whether PJ ,OFCOM or the altnets say one thing or another.
I’d say the fusses over statements by various parties are just symptoms of a big underlying issue that was always likely to cause problems .
There was an assumption that “build it and they will come “ would apply to new providers and competition would come just because they existed.
In my area households can choose from at least three different suppliers each of which had a penetration assumed in their business plan that was based on hope despite the fact that broadband is viewed by most households as just another utility. People locally aren’t taking the latest fibre offers if they have Okay service and the price isn’t crazy.I live in a lane with four houses that needed 90 yards of channel dug then four spurs to houses at lord knows what cost eighteen months ago.Not a single house plans to switch.

I think that the fact that the billions being sunk into new networks by altnets are based on fundamentally incorrect expectations and that OFCOM have bought into and supported those expectations is the underlying issue.It’s a bit like the Kings new clothes story though and it’s easier to take chunks out of each other than accept that the regulator and the new investors just got their modelling wrong.. I agree that 4g may be a factor but suspect that only applies in the more tech friendly younger generations. I suspect that most altnets penetration assumptions are out by a factor of two if our local experience is anything to go by.
BT isn’t to blame for this but is a convenient villain for OFCOM and the altnets to blame for their unwise plans not being achieved.
I wonder how long it will take to sort out? Unfortunately If OFCOM is to own sorting it out more problems are coming.