Member Info for expatbrat

VLS's official UK Gov ramper was on point this week discussing how we can green aviation. Rather conspicuously, no mention of VLS or SAF.

Building back greener

That recovery plan won't just focus on 'the here and now' either. It's crucial we use this time to look to the future too. To the post-Covid world which will open up before us. Defined not only by challenges, but also by opportunities to speed up the transformation of the industry.

Aviation is fortunate in one respect - we know demand for air travel is very likely to grow in decades to come. But the industry has to transform its environmental impact if it's to be viable.

I welcome the leadership that the industry is showing. Investing in cleaner planes. Plans to offset carbon.

But now COVID has prompted further change. We're seeing manufacturers reassess product plans, and airlines moving to more fuel efficient fleets. The pace of change is only going to accelerate.

After becoming the first major economy in the world to set a 2050 net zero target we're also committed to decarbonising aviation. And demonstrating zero carbon emission flights across the Atlantic within a generation.

So in the summer, I co-chaired the first meeting of the Jet Zero Council. The Prime Minister dropped by and brought together leaders from aviation, aerospace and academia.

Our single overriding goal: to develop UK capability to achieve net zero emission flights.

The council will help develop new ideas, new technologies and new businesses to deliver net zero by 2050. And we will consult shortly to update our position on aviation and climate change.

I want the UK to become a global centre for the design, manufacture and use of clean aircraft. That's why last year we announced a £300m joint investment between government and industry through the Future Flight Challenge. Money that will fund electric plane innovation and research into other forms of aviation technology.

That's also why we're ploughing nearly £2bn into aviation research and technology. Through the Aerospace Technology Institute Programme. Working closely with colleagues from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

And that's why - through that programme - we've been able to support the groundbreaking Fresson Project to make electrically powered commercial flights a reality in the UK within two years.

There are a lot of other exciting initiatives too. Through schemes like our Future Flight Challenge. The Innovation Hub within the CAA. Which give us great hope for the future.

So, to sum this all up. I don't underestimate how difficult things are right now. But aviation will recover. And when it does, it won't be picking up from where we were at the start of 2020. It won't be a simple return to normal service. It'll be leaner, and cleaner, more resilient, more ambitious aviation industry.

So let's all work together to make that recovery happen as soon as possible. To get this industry ba

I’m pretty sure that there are more ways to produce aviation biofuels, than just the VLS away. I stand with my argument about it being to big to finance. However there might be others out there with less expensive, smaller scale options that would also be in a position to receive some of that money.

Get your facts right!!!!
The 14 plants by 2037 are NOT government figures. These are estimates from Sustainable Aviation coalition, which is an independent body.

Also, you state that the ‘£429m in gov backed loan guarantees to support the first flagship plant AltAlto’. Again, not correct. This is a pot of money (being asked for) to help support all SAF plants not, as you infer, just AltAlto.

Rampy McRampface strikes again.

The more you write, the more I think you’re so far into this stock, that your financial future depends on it. Funny how you observe my attendance frequency, despite being on this board at the same times to offer poor rebuttals.

At the end of the day, VlS have delivered very little in the fens scheme of things, despite raising 10’s of millions of pounds, multiple times, over multiple years. They have almost no assets, almost no sales, meaningful revenue that is years away (assuming any of these unproven plants get built) and an non existent track record of on boarding of strategic partners.
You are now calling my posts BS, when they are in fact, fact. In addition, you are also getting personally abusive, as has been mentioned by others. Keep accumulating, and keep polishing the matte finish of this opportunity. I don’t think you’ll ever see your face in it.

In a nutshell, multiple diltuonary placings and little in the way of material progress in terms of revenue.

Seems like someone has worked you our sense...in too deep?!

As for on boarding of II’s this has been the dream of VLS for years. Look at their competition - Lanzatech, Enerkam, Fulchrum, all have huge strategics on board. VLS hasn’t brought anyone else on for years, the last one being when it was a tech company, not the new Development Company it is aspiring to be.
Without a strategic on board, I just don’t think they will ever get beyond the FEED stage.
Before you mention Shell and BA, I mean strategic investors in the company, not companies playing with pocket change.

Sense, please do tell of this "onboarding of high class institutional investors."..

I don't see any of that, but happy to be corrected.

Or could it be you're just ramping with fake news?

It’s pure sentiment. The biggest development for the company happened back in July, which was the securing of planning permission. There have been a few other ‘announcements’ which have provided support, but in my opinion, the Planning Permission was the only tangible highlight.
I’m not sure what Sense is on about with ‘on boarding of high class II’s’. I don’t see any of those.

The SP is now being driven by external factors, related to Net Zero, and is heavily influenced by news. Good luck

Hi Thurg. No negativity here. Just golden rules of project financing. VC/Financiers look for examples of how well a company developed projects prior to the one in question. If there are no such examples, then the risks are perceived as higher, meaning much higher rates of interest, or possibly no early stage or project funding at all. Maybe VLS's model can accommodate higher rates, but again, the sheer size and cost of this project seems too much in the context of developer associated risk. Ive not even factored-in technology risk here.

However if, for example, Shell decided to roll its sleeves up and get involved in the development activity, thats a different proposition. Developer risk would be substantially reduced, and the risk profile would shift almost entirety to the technology. But they need to be involved properly. Thus far, Shell appear to be very much at arms length.

A portion of that risk is the ability of the company overseeing the project. This is where prior evidence of successful project financing and delivery is key. Now, I appreciate that we all have to start somewhere, but the starting point needs to be commensurate with the levels of experience the development company has. In the case of VLS, they’ve self labeled themselves as developers 24 months ago. VLS also historically struggle to attract strategic funding (I’m not talking bargain basement offerings), which will weigh on the company going forward.
Yes, the drift toward these net zero projects will help with initial funding by way of grants, however when it comes to serious development capital and debt, the same rules apply as they always have done.

Sense. Can you provide some evidence of VLS being a developer? Red Rock have developed multiple bio fuel projects previously which add significant weight and credibility - enough to enable them to secure finance.
VLS need to cut their teeth on development, but not at a half billion pound, high risk, unproven project. This is my point, and probably goes some way to explaining why they've been unsuccessful for many years, raising project finance.

Correct Donatron. So why has VLS been unsuccessful in securing such guarantees for Mississippi?
The potential availability of Loan guarantees is fantastic, however the screening of applicants still needs to be undertaken.

Spurious, i think in fairness, VLS hasn't changed that much since 2018 - its more the market has changed. However, when it comes to investment in VLS, the challenges that have stunted their growth in strategic investor involvement are still ever present. VLS is a technology developer, NOT a project developer and the strategics and VC community know this. This explains why Red Rock, who is a real developer, using VLS kit, has managed to successfully finance their project whereas VLS are still struggling to find their shining knights for Mississippi.

IM could you please paste the content of the FT article on here?

SP. Thanks for the reference :) and an excellent overview.

There is one rather large but potentially vocal elephant in the room that all of your predictions and surmise hinges on and that is 'does the waste to fuel' process actually work? Lets not forget here that the VLS tech is only one small part of a bigger machine - a machine that has not been built before. All of that lovely syngas going into a VLS reactor needs to be produced first and nobody has done that yet. There are doubts made by other on here about the gasification system used by Red Rock in that its unproven and the Fulchrum project has been delayed due to their contractor almost going under. Both these factors will directly, or indirectly affect the ability of VLS to deliver any of their own or third party projects.

I personally think one should look closely at the success of others in this field, as such performance will influence VLS ability to attract investment. Stll, VLS have the UK to themselves, so this could be the saving grace in terms of grants and project funding in the short term.

whone: VLS make excellent hardware that has been tested and proven. The challenge is combing their technology with a whole host of other technology and expect their technology to still work as designed.
Assuming the wood gasification system at the RR plant works (this chosen tech supplier has not been proven before), then the CLS hardware should work as designed.
For the Vls plant in Immingham, they plan to use rubbish as feedstock. The success of the VLS equipment relies totally on the success of the entire system, that has not been designed by VLS, and was contracted out to another firm.

To be honest @lynny, I like the banter. Many less (or ill) informed people on here who have no experience in the waste treatment space and an appreciation for the complexity of this proposed technology. I’m retired, so have plenty of time to spar with a few on here, rebasing the facts when required.

Tech aside (it'll never be financed), there will be food trading opportunities on this stock toward the end of the year. Boris will have to address the aerospace industry challenges at some point and he can only support it if he puts sustainability at the core of any rescue package. We’ve had Wind Power, next will be Hydrogen, then Carbon Capture and Storage and finally, aviation and sustainable fuels. He had to get all these announced before the year is out imho.

They are in it for the PR, as it’s the easiest way to get involved in SAF. Also the cheapest.
So far, they’ve put less than a million into AltAlto and forward commitments to ‘handle the logistics’ for another plant in the US.
So in my book, very much in it for the PR, as they are not putting much skin in the game atall.

Still, it can only good PR for RR and VLS to have Shell involved in some capacity, even if it’s just their logo and a few pennies.

A couple of interesting developments in the bio jet fuel arena:
Shell partners with Red Rock

https://www.shell.com/business-customers/aviation/news-and-media-releases/news-and-media-2020/shell-and-red-rock-sign-agreement-to-market-and-distribute-low-carbon-sustainable-aviation-and-diesel-fuel.html

And Fulchrum secures funding from Citibank.

https://www.citigroup.com/citi/news/2020/200918a.htm

And for the record, quite like EQT. They are treading a solid path to commercialisation. Pilot, demo and next, commercial. That’s the right way to approach these task rather than going shopping for running shoes despite still crawling being your only way of getting about at the time.