Member Info for Everglade

From CNBC

‘ Fintech startup Stripe is now valued at $159 billion after a secondary stock sale for employees and shareholders, the company announced Tuesday.

The valuation shows blistering growth from a year ago, when it was valued at $91.5 billion. Stripe’s valuation nearly tripled to $95 billion in 2021.’

I’m not sure what the current SMT book value is for their holding, but reads as good news…

In my opinion, there might (emphasis on might) be some demand side support coming in late spring – although this time round, any scheme is likely to come with very tight criteria and for first time buyers only. My opinion only, but i'm sure the Govt will be looking at Q1 completions to determine if there's a need for it to meet their aspirations, the messaging of which I think will change from 1.5m homes to 300k homes per annum by the end of their term. Let's see....

I was at a conference yesterday and Matthew Pennycook was a speaker. He was asked about Help To Buy and his answer didn't inspire any confidence to be honest. He referred to it as a 'sugar rush', which I do not agree with. If you look at the numbers, HTB led to a much higher sustained level of housing delivery for the period it was active. Just a shame he wasn't in the room when those facts were laid out to the audience.

I attended a national housebuilder's forum last week. Seems sales rates are being propped up by the north, but the south is really struggling. There's an industry-wide call for buy side stimulus, particularly for first time buyers. If the Budget delivers on this then it should be a real shot in the arm for the industry.

I'd echo those sentiments. It feels like BTL landlords have been hammered in every direction, including now taxes that apply more to turnover than profit. Makes it difficult to get the figures to work, at least in my experience. And whilst rents have increased, once you get a good tenant that looks after the place, there's a reluctance to increase rent and risk them leaving. If you're a bit soft like me, you build a relationship with your tenant families and just want to do right by them, hence rents (in my case at least) that always lag the market.

I've found better returns in the stock market - and my TW shares don't call me on a Sunday evening after locking themselves out of their house!

Not a good day at the office, we're the worst performing sector by some distance.

I was hoping that Pennycook would be on the media circuit announcing the replacement mortgage guarantee scheme as the existing support scheme expires today. That could be behind the drop.

I agree that the fundamentals look good. The Govt are helping with planning policy reform and the affordable housing settlement at the spending review is also good news.

Interest rates are trending downwards and i'm hoping there will be an announcement next week on what will replace the mortgage guarantee scheme, which expires 30th June. Something bolder than the current scheme would be welcomed as there needs to be more stimulus for 1st time buyers.

Moreover though, all these Govt announcements and initiatives are great for short term share price movement, but it's how they translate into profits that really counts and IMO will be the catalyst for a proper leg up in our investments.

Half year update next month will provide insight.

Wigan - CMA Investigation update issued today.

June to August - investigation continuing.

From BBC "Reeves is also expected to announce £39bn to help build social and affordable housing over the next 10 years".

If this relates to the affordable housing programme, then it's a 70% annual increase in the previous settlement, which should help the housing associations take affordable units off the housebuilders, a major sticking point in the industry at the moment. Encouraging but the devil will be in the detail.

Bellway's trading update put a rocket up the sector today.

I hope you're right Wigan. Near term we should hear further on this CMA investigation, interest rates meeting later in June, there's the spending review later this week and the current mortgage guarantee scheme expires end of June. Potential (glass half full) for some tail winds and good news for the industry...

There should be an update here shortly, the latest investigation period ended a few days ago. Anyone in the industry hear any whispers? I suspect there will be a case to answer but given the Govt agenda it would surely be counter-productive to issue any major punishments.

Does anyone know off-hand if TW have made accounting provisions in anticipation?

Given the most recent Govt 'consultations', I really hope Labour don't start blaming the HB's for not meeting their 1.5m target - if they do it wont be pretty!

Isn't the cut off based on the 111th index value, which is just over £3bn market cap?

Seems we're stuck around the 115-120 range, which is perhaps a reflection of the current 2025 consensus. Need a bit of stimulus to push on. Things like positive CMA result (possible update end of May), Govt announcement of improved homebuyer scheme (current mortgage guarantee scheme expires end June), another rates reduction, and a general improvement in the TW/sector financials. Could also do with more TW sales outlets as they've been on the slide.

Steady as she goes. No particular surprises either way, now let’s see a couple of rate reductions in quick succession and a decent 1st time buyer support scheme when the current one expires in June I think.

Great - let us know how you get on. You'll know the state of affairs by the quality of tea and biscuits!

Anyone going?!

I was also hoping to see a surprise announcement yesterday on the re-emergence of Help to Buy. The current Mortgage Guarantee scheme expires at the end of June and pre-election, Labour talked about a similar scheme called Freedom to Buy, which would be put in place permanently.

However, there was nothing in the King's speech about it, which I am hoping is to allow Labour some flexibility on what type of scheme they ultimately put in place. If there's no replacement, then that is really bad news for the HB's, so fingers crossed they pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Not a good set of results today from Crest. Divi slashed and reference to a downside scenario that would have them struggling with their banking covenants. Bellway didn't like what they saw in their pre-purchase DD last year, so the outlook looks very uncertain.

IMO a company specific rather than sector wide issue, and hopefully they can trade their way out of their troubles. They've got loads of land they can sell in the meantime, so probably good news for the rest of the housebuilders as it will likely be keenly priced...

...is reported to be thinking about intervening in the car finance legal case at the Supreme Court due to the problems it could cause the banking sector at a time when the UK is trying to look pro-business.

Perhaps the same approach could be taken by a pro-housebuilding Govt on the CMA investigation?...