Member Info for Everestingly

Agreed - on a 12 month view there is still significant upside here but expect there will be a pull back at some point soonish. Potentially the results next week might be that point for a breather?

Either way, it feels like 3 years since we’ve been able to ‘buy the dips’ but hopefully that strategy should start to work if we are in a new bull market

There is always that possibility, given it’s a small player with £10bn aum. I think the M&A angle is another piece of the investment appeal here. More likely, it was the most oversold and Uk focussed asset manager, therefore benefiting from the market uplift of the last few weeks.

PMI is re-rating nicely ahead of the results at the end of the month. Given the rebound in POLR shares recently when they reported inflows, there should still be scope for further price gain for PMI when that happens too?

Be interesting to see if they call this out at the results / positive outlook. Also keen to see if they hold the interim divi at 3p or thereabouts. Yield still 8%ish.

Another significant volume day. Noticed that one of the shorts reduced marginally (c.40k shares) yesterday. The market is still very strong so surely a positive outlook statement is becoming more likely. Can’t be too far off some news now - they would usually issue final results in the next 6 weeks but I would imagine they will do a deal update rns first

Yes, true re the funds selling, if a buyback. I’m working on the assumption that if trading is at least in line with prior guidance, then there should be a reasonable re rating upwards, given the overall market has picked up.

Ideally, one of the potential TIC acquirers from last year may resurface with a bid, as the financing environment and interest rates outlook is much clearer than mid 23. We shall see I guess.

Fair enough. I want all buyback as will just have to pay tax on non-Isa divis above the threshold. I expect (hope!) it will be mostly buyback with smaller element of divi

Every day this week has seen very high volume (1-2% of float) per day. We can’t be too far off a trading update, deal update and potential new CEO announcement.

Have also noticed that Marlowe has lagged the wider rally on Aim, small cap and 250 indices of late, so would have thought a reasonable re rating should occur post the update.

PMI is pretty much a leveraged play on UK small and mid caps. Money is flowing back in to these at pace, so with a positive Q2 aum note a couple of weeks ago from PMI, the outlook seems fairly positive.

Morning, the 16.2 multiple is cash ebitda, which falls to 13.7x on an accounting basis (which is comparable to the numbers Marlowe publish). Working that back explains the difference you reference.

Thanks for the £710m EV - yes broadly looks about right to me, too.

Agree. Alex was the key driver of the strategic vision and growth and with him gone, a new CEO (basically a corporate manager) would have no skin in the game and would be focussed on running for cash, dividends etc. As a stock, I think this has now gone ex-growth (no new platforms, cross sell between OH and TIC being fairly low, like you say), so the multiple will be lower? We still have a 5% CEO stock overhang, at some point, too?

I think they should get both businesses running sweetly, with all integrating finished, and then look to sell. Certainly I will be holding to see how this plays out in the coming months.

Goldenyears - It’s behind a paywall, but if you can get access to twitter, and search for “Conor maguire Value situations” he has screenshot the article. It doesn’t say a huge amount more than has been posted on here tbh

Bloomberg report posted on X that they are in exclusive discussions with French PE house re sale for £300m

Smkr, I agree. Looks like a double bottom from

250 at end of Nov and then again last week.

I think it is also useful that commentators with large retail followers are also positive on pmi and the wider sector:

1. Paul Scott and the stockopedia team called out pmi last week, saying oversold, strong balance sheet, high yield (see small caps podcast last Saturday).

2. Paul Hill said he has recently bought for exactly the same reasons (see stockpickers from yesterday)

I also thought the presentation was good. The leading indicator point for me was around the level of interest they had had for some presentation recently - they said they needed to hire out double the size conference facility vs 12 months ago. With the annual dividend (current 10% yield) effectively covered for 2 years by unrestricted cash (£18m), coupled with future fund inflows and a potential rising market, this share is strongly positioned for 2024. I tripled my initial q4 investment in PMI at the back end of the year and also broadened out into LIO. Sector AUM comps over the last week or so also confirm the trend. Fingers crossed here but signs are good…..

So results will be on Tuesday- I take the fact that there will be a virtual presentation, rather than a webcast (which is how they usually deliver results) suggests there is something additional going on

Well the only and latest fact we had was that they were happy running leverage at 2x in July per the IMSM announcement. That was months ago so let’s wait and see what the numbers look like at the end of the month when they issue interims and then reconvene.

Either way there can’t be much downside at £5 and heaps of upside if a divestment comes good. The market at the smaller end has been good the last couple of weeks and there is plenty of M&A about, which has to mean we are at or near the bottom, in general terms.

Thanks for the info Paul, appreciate you posting this. I will take a look tonight

Hi, I am a new holder here (£40k over last few days) as see a significant opportunity to rerate over the next year. Rationale for buying is: as a play on small caps oversold; aum outflows moderating; strong balance sheet; potential share price turn ahead of the results in a few weeks; oversold chart vs listed peers

I’m working on the basis that they said they would be comfortable operating at 2x proforma leverage I.e £190m (ex leases) when they acquired IMSM. Net debt ex leases was £160m at Mar, therefore adding back £20m of Fcf for half a year (£40m fcf for 24 per broker notes), leaves £50m out of the door on the other bits of non fcf and acquisitions to date.

At some point they are going to get a TIC deal away (surely when not if) and be in net cash.