Member Info for Everestingly

I suspect that given the recent rise in share price, that acquisitions (last one done at 5.5x) are more attractive (Marlowe currently trading on ~8x fy26) than buybacks - this is probably why the buybacks have ceased since April. If this price sticks, I think they will start to look at small bolt ons. If they use £15m of free cash per year, I would like that as a way to buy growth ( assuming there are minimal restructuring costs)

Hi, I asked the company about the loans last week and they confirmed there is no actual cash movement. The loans are being used to purchase growth shares. You could raise on the IMC call on 2nd April if you want further clarity.

Understand your points/concerns on the LTIP but ultimately the large shareholders are all underwater (broadly speaking). I’d take that level of dilution for multiples of my current investment. We haven’t seen the terms of the ESOP yet?

Interesting information, thanks Nael

New broker note from Singers calling out helpful macro backdrop for fx. They state that the forecasts are conservatively positioned if favourable macro persists, so therefore potential for upgrades. Personally, given the recent history, I think mgt will wait until later in the year before a more bullish tone, but let’s see

Hi Dartron, yes agreed. Some news or update on the new ATB streams would be good, too.

I thought the LTIP news was positive - you can clearly see where the price will head if they can execute on ATB.

Alpha Group results just out confirm positive trading conditions have continued into 2025. This should provide good read across for the AGFX outlook on 2nd April I hope

No, I can’t either but wanted to pin down a general feeling I had vs hard facts or potential for loss of outsource type contracts

Does anybody have any insight as to potential implications to Optima of restructuring to the NHS that have been announced over the last week / possible upcoming changes please?

A strong week here and feeling like a forecast stabilisation of earnings is driving the price higher. Finseta and Alpha have both been flat for the week, so feels AGFX specific. The price must have been assisted by the SCSW article.

Not expecting any news re FY results until early April - is anyone else aware of any other news flow that could be driving the price?

Evening Dartron, I am not a subscriber but saw someone had posted that it was recommended on advfn. Reading what I can before the paywall kicks in, scsw are pinning their recommendation on the roll out of ATB.

I only sub to Paul Scott, who is excellent (with a value /GARP focus) and only £10pcm. He covers every single small and mid cap daily rns.

Like you say, we are waiting for further evidence of progress here but they seem to be turning a corner and forecasts should be comfortably beaten - the bar is low. Let’s see what the EIP shows as I think that will correlate with what the key shareholders want to see from the share price and on what timescale. Like Staveley says, by this time next year we will know if it is going to work…

Looks like SCSW has a buy recommendation in the Feb issue. Guess this explains the high volume and firm price

High volume and positive price movement today; Alpha and Finseta traded flat. I wonder if the Exec Incentive Plan is due imminently?

Fair enough Dartron. On a charting note, I see we are just about to get a golden cross - first time in a long time that this has happened!

Dartron, for me it was more around the ATB execution that he was highlighting. Currently there is little evidence that this is working from a numbers perspective but in a year we will have a view on this 80-90% that it either is or isn’t going to work. That aside, if they generally stabilise the core FX business then today’s price is still good value.

Will be interesting to see the trajectory come FY results and also, near term, what the exec share scheme targets are. Clearly, the big shareholders are sitting on losses so expect the targets to be high double digits share price

I’d say that was a pretty balanced interview. Of interest: they are about to announce a new exec share scheme; Staveley is currently 50-60% confident of the turnaround. Will be up to 80-90% within a year; said that others may be looking to buy an asset such as this but that he and other shareholders would not be surrendering cheaply.

Just seen on X that Paul Hill is interviewing Richard Staveley tomorrow. Rockwood is an an investor in Argentex so hopefully we may get his view on how things are going

Thanks Dartron, I think that is a fair price - at the moment. If you compare with profitable peers: finseta trades on ~2x revenues, Equals ~2x, Alpha ~4x, then Argentex at 0.9X is trading at a significant discount, representing the execution risk in getting margins back on track and aligned to peers. However, as we move through 25, this discount should close if they can show progress. Based on Singers v conservative forecasts (I.e. no revenue growth in 25, ebitda flat at £1.5m) then i would see 60p by the end of the year as there should be clear scope to beat the targets

Yes, my sense is that there is plenty of demand for these still. For example, I am able to get a price of 41.57p for 492,000 shares. This is not too far below the quoted bottom end of the spread (42.40)

Expecting a trading update before the end of next week based on prior years? Liquidity to sell still appears to be strong - I am able to get a price between 36.99 and 33.5 to sell (depending on how many of my 332,000 I look to sell). Let’s see what the update brings. Anyone any thoughts or insight?

20m shares traded at 9.10am - that must be the overhang cleared. Will await the holdings rns with anticipation!