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Yes, I tend to agree. The time to acquire will be when there is evidence that the turnaround plan is working but the price is still low; we should know more soon.

I bought another c£10k this morning. The liquidity for this share currently seems good and above normal. For example, if I place a dummy trade to sell my entire stake (c.£50k) I am being offered on HL a price of 31.92. My working assumption is therefore that there is still a largish buyer out there. Does anyone else have any more detail or level 2 info?

I saw the price turning this morning so bought 4 tranches totalling c.125000 shares at an average of 31.5 ish. That still leaves a lot of volume from elsewhere today. Looks undervalued if they can show stabilisation when they report in the coming weeks

New HK based activist buys 5%, removal of Investec as joint broker announced today, big buys in the closing auction - feels like something is moving here?

Yes, Simar99, the closing auction was high wasn’t it. The buyback position is interesting - it looks like the large stale bull positions have been cleared? Daily volume has dropped right down so maybe you are right that the market will start responding. It needs the trading and cash flow story to improve too, though.

Hi, my view is that synt just has a high market beta. Movements are pretty much a leveraged play on the ftse250?

Yes indeed. Interesting RNS today from Gusbourne (sparkling wine producer worth £38m and where Lord Ashcroft has a 67% stake. He states in the RNS that with Impellam now sold and at the age of 78 he is looking at his options.

This must increase the likelihood of either his shares in Marlowe being reviewed soon or an outright sale of the business, surely. If there isn’t a new CEO announced tomorrow this likelihood must increase.

Let’s see what gets announced

Based on timings from last year, they may issue a post close next week. I would like to see a disposal alongside this for proceeds to reduce net debt. On the last analyst call alongside the FY results the CEO said they had £20m of ebitda marked as non core. They sold £4m of this at 6x in April so applying this multiple to the remaining non core could be £90m proceeds in total. This should be a strong catalyst for the price in my opinion as and when the sales are announced.

Will watch with interest

Golden, I think the buyback is allowing stale bulls (perhaps associated with GRC) to exit. Once they are out of the way or trimmed, then the price can rise on the back of results/better outlook/ new board etc?

Well, tactically and based on last 2 days volume, it looks like they are going to complete the £75m spend in the next week or so. They should then be able to launch this positive message shortly thereafter alongside the results and board updates (?) to maximise the EPS impact.

The share price is holding up well ahead of the results next week. Will be expecting further positive comments regarding improving trading conditions.

Yes agreed re the lack of synergies. Helpfully, it looks like the market is also of the same view re a sale or in any event, a rerating.

Is it me or is that rns making it look like further preparation for a sale? New NED that is the CEO of a business that Lord Ashcroft sold in Dec 23. Kevin Quinn leaving, still no CEO announced.

Let’s wait and see who is announced into the CEO and Chair positions but if they are ‘steady as she goes’ appointments, then for me, that would be confirming a sale strategy in the medium term.

Having listened to the investor meet presentation, my sense was that the positive flows comments in the presentation sounded slightly better than the RNS.

Did anyone else think that?

Given the timing of the presentation, it seemed to coincide with the slight bounce in the price mid morning on the results day last Thursday.

I suspect the flow situation will turn very slowly but am sure we should see incremental changes in the aum statements in July and October to support the share price through the year and beyond.

Yes, it was a good update. Liked the improving fund flows recently and positive outlook. Feels like they are laying the groundwork for final divi cut potentially? Or have they held the interim at 3p with a view to potentially holding the full year at 3p, but they have bought some wriggle room if required? Impax sold off heavily yesterday albeit their fund flow message and dividend calc was poorer.

I read the rns as being he has no notifiable interest I.e Ashcroft has bought 3.4m of his shares therefore Alex still retains 1.2m but this is below notification requirements (i.e. 3% threshold), although I may be wrong?

Agree with your points on the m&a- the number of companies kicking off buybacks at the moment is very high, so clearly shows uk equities as good value for corporates’ cash

I must admit - that was my thought, too WR666. I noted in the Hargreaves bid rns, that they rejected it on 26th April. There must have been significant leakage as the Hargreaves price rose steadily since that date, which is exactly the same case here with LIO. Obviously the market has also been rising along the same timeframe but it does seem coincidental!

Either way, for me, this is at least another 12 month hold, notwithstanding there may well be a pull back in the short term

That’s an interesting development on the shareholdings. Removes the potential overhang of Dacre’s shares nicely! Interesting also that Ashcroft sold Impellam in Dec 23. Does his increase in control here make a sale more possible?

Thanks Corryvreckan1. It will be interesting to see if the buyback purchases then offset some of the potential selling pressure caused by it going ex-div. The buyback will be up to c.12m shares and there are 1.5m shorts outstanding. Potentially some reinvestment of dividends too?

We certainly need some further clarity on the numbers and strategy - assume new ceo will be announced alongside completion?

Agreed, the overall market is weak today but LIO is increasing in price, so I think inflows are starting to be priced in. Both PMI and LIO are more uk focussed than the other managers, so it definitely feels like the tide is turning for these.

You have to hope that with a more favourable outlook, the divi level at 50p should be maintained when the results are released at the end of June.