Member Info for esduk

I like to listen to Luke Gromen, he’s got a sharp mind and seems to read the tea leaves better than most.

Funny, I used to work with Richard Parker (West Midlands mayor) back in his PwC days, maybe I should message him and get the inside scoop on the commissioning timetable…

Yep another 1m trade posted. Think we get this finished today or tomorrow. We’re approaching 25m if it is the warrants

Yeh, crazy numbers, can’t be long now

I’ve been listening to quite a few podcasts about junior mining investments in the past few months and one topic which has come up a few times is when to exercise your warrants. The lesson learned by the commentators (Rick Rule etc) is that getting too greedy with warrants (particularly when you hold a large volume of them) can often result in you missing out. If you have £m’s of warrants that are substantially in the money and you have news / large buying volume to sell into, then it makes sense to do so even if you have faith in the long term direction of the share price. The commentators have many examples of getting too greedy and timing themselves out. I assume a lot of the Mkango warrant holders will also hold shares, so have plenty of upside exposure anyway. Cashing out a 7p warrant at 15-18p could certainly make a lot of sense in that case. Anyway, more conjecture I know, but struggling to think what else is behind the selling, despite all the theories that we’ve discussed.

Over 2.5m in volume and around 400k of that is sells. Due some big delayed sells later, and we’re really chewing through the volume. With the delayed sells I expect to come later I reckon we are somewhere in the region of 17-20m, so if it is the 25m in warrants being forward sold we’d be through 65-80% of it. Hoping we flush this seller out before the news this week and get the mega rise we all deserve.

Completely agree SG, but looks like a continuation of yesterday’s big seller for the most part. Massive buying opportunity imo and I’m in the process of selling other things to move more funds in here. A forced or time bound seller driving the price down while we know big news is imminent is an ideal situation for us PI’s imo, at least if people have the funds to take advantage.

In terms of Tyseley operations, commissioning being underway sounds to me like tests are still being run to fine tune equipment and processes. In my experience of infrastructure project finance commissioning tests are a very normal part of the transition phase between construction and operations. So all the equipment is in and everything has been built, but they want to make sure it is all working / delivering to the performance it’s designed for. All very normal, but they obviously didn’t leave themselves enough of a buffer to do the commissioning tests and have tripped themselves up on the 30 June deadline.

Let’s hope we shake the last of the big selling out before we get the RNS.

It’s 4th July Friday which is a public holiday in the US (where CrownProptech are and where the BCA will be signed). US markets have a half day on Thursday 3rd as well. Hence the 3 day extension, as it needs to be wrapped up before everyone goes off to spend the long weekend with their family. I’m expecting an RNS tomorrow or Thursday. Fantastic news and shows we were right about the need to get this done late June/Early July in order to get the SPAC listing done by year end. Feeling vindicated, and now just wondering what the valuation will be??? I think this news drives the SP much more than Tyseley operations (if we get a decent valuation that is).

Hahaha, great stuff. Glad I got my top up in yesterday at 14.35p.

Always possible but there’s been no holdings threshold cross RNS, and there would need to be one at 20%, which would have been passed based on the volume we’ve seen. Myles also suggested that the latest word from Talaxis/Vitol was that they remained very supportive.

That was one of the theories posited a month ago when this big selling began, originally by GLR I think. Can’t remember the full details but something along the lines of the Hypromag founders having 10m shares from Mkango’s original purchase of Hypromag (think they basically got 10m shares at 10p valuation as part of the purchase consideration), with them due to get more shares in Mkango as Hypromag hits future milestones (I assume Tyseley operations is one of these). So, as the theory goes, if you knew you were set to get a load more shares on operational start of Tyseley you might offload your original holding. Who knows, but it feels like it’s been a lot more than 10m in large volume selling by my count. By my estimate it’s about 14-17.5m.

Interesting 200k buy at 15.60p post close.

Given that we had over 2.1m large volume sells in the last 2 hrs I think we did well to only close down 1p. I don't think this is funds/large investors doing quarterly or semi annual housekeeping. We only have one fund invested that I know of (Konwave Transition Metals with 1.86%), and I have down a fair bit of research into the matter. I also don't think this is someone who is selling because we missed the deadline. The timing of it and the volume don't make sense to fit that theory imo. I think this is the same seller we've had for the last month, and I think we may find out the reason relatively shortly based on today's action. Famous last words, let's see.

You may well be right codejunkie. With mother 200k posted that’s over 1.7m in big (mostly) delayed trades in the last hour and a half, so it definitely feels like they were in a hurry. If I was a big seller e.g. a warrant seller, based on company communications I guess I would have expected a lot of news this month to give me the volume to sell my warrants into. The big sells started on an RNS day a month ago exactly. Anyway all speculation and conjecture as others have said, but pretty fascinating at the same time (to me at least). I’m remaining confident.

Another 250k. This feels quite like the day we had a month ago with the massive delayed sells, and I don’t think this is some insider who has found out something negative today. I think it is connected to the big seller for sure.

Another 267k delayed sell there. Is this the big seller accelerating for some reason? Could this be the final throws? Hopefully, the next few days should be interesting.

There’s a 232k delayed sell that seems to have kicked it all off.

Let’s wait and see how things play out. If the company have failed to hit the deadline, which now looks odds on, then a 1p reduction in the SP wouldn’t seem to out of the ordinary. Obviously the way the SP traded today suggests something different is happening as that was certainly not normal action in the last two hours. From my perspective this is a chance to remind myself of my investment thesis, and determine that nothing in that has changed, even with potential delays, so this is just another opportunity where price and value are not aligned which allows me to take advantage.