Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Wondering whether this already underway, but going a bit wrong...
Buy UK
Short Poland
The risk is that Poland keeps climbing and the gap gets wider still... when this happens, the shorts might be forced to close and then the Polish price jumps higher still.
Arbitrage is risky, but eventually these two prices have to converge again, as it's the same company.
Moftinu-1008 well was spudded in Romania on 16 January 2021
It takes 1-2 weeks to drill a well in a gas field onshore.
Last time Serinus drilled, it took 1 month from spudding to RNS about the drill.
News here very soon.
"Interestingly, according to the Serinus CEO, the company is so cost-effective that it can generate positive operating cash flow with oil market prices as low as $ 20. a barrel."
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gielda/wiadomosci/serinus-energy-spolka-w-ktora-zainwestowal-kulczyk-investments-rosnie-na-gieldzie/p5kymj2
These price differences between markets don’t last very long - arbitrageurs will be weighing up the risks involved following such a sharp upwards price move in Poland and probably waiting to see if it drops back again before buying and selling to level the price between exchanges.
The difference looks to be worth it IMO, so just a matter of time before the prices return to being about the same again.
My guess is anywhere between 8p and 14p (if we assume there is some pullback due in Poland)
Pricing ought to be the same on dual listings - shares were released on AIM at a low 2p and they’ve doubled since so buyers selling in the U.K.
Over in Poland, they see the company as being debt free now with great prospects so they’ve pushed the price towards 20p
The prices will have to align over time... once selling in the U.K. stops, could be a fast jump up.
Off topic but interesting question
I came across SENX (due to the mysterious dual listing price differential between Poland and UK) and looked at the large holders. Funny to see a name we can all remember there!
Anyone know why a share wouldn't be arbitraged to keep a difference in price low? 19p in Poland and 3.8p in UK seems very very weird to me.
I thought arbitrage would ensure dual listing price difference remain low.
My suspicion here is that the Polish market has moved surprisingly quickly upwards in just 2 or 3 days, and that the arbitrators haven't got it on their radar just yet - perhaps expecting the rise to fall back a bit?
However, at 19p on the WSE it has a long way to come to meet 3.8p in London.
I'm expecting them to meet in the middle over the next week... unless spudding news in Romania comes through and we find gas is going to be connected sooner than priced in...
"The company has the capacity through contract manufacturing partners based in the UK to reach 2 million tests per month in Q1 of 2021 and is in the process of ramping up to potentially go beyond this."
https://www.med-technews.com/news/Covid-19-Medtech-News/uk-healthtech-firm-to-launch-on-the-spot-covid-19-saliva-tes/
That's Vatic - the saliva based LFT - currently seeking people that have tested positive for trial data...
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6759772991296462848/
They'll be trading this bounce, so expect to see a drop at the end of the day as they cash in, again, on a short term outlook.
Wish they would all just stop it.
In consultation with advisers, the decision was made that there was not a statement to make as there were no outstanding orders with the DHSC and therefore no orders to be cancelled,” the company said in a statement to the Financial Times.
Just means everything has to go through a tender process as I thought we all knew?
Peak PU prices in sight too:
https://www.plasteurope.com/prices/POLYMER_PRICES_t246645/
Although I can't get access to the full article, it looks to be saying the recent price upswing comes to an end in February.
There was a supply bottleneck for a key ingredient of foam at the end of 2020, causing raw material costs to go up.
EVE mentioned this in their trading update and say they raised prices to accommodate these costs without impacting sales (good).
It looks as if the supply side for PE has been remedied and now we enter a period of oversupply:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/120420-commodities-2021-global-pe-markets-expecting-oversupply-in-h1-2021
This would mean that European prices for PE should remain stable this year IMO.
French marketing machine already gaining speed:
https://www.quelmatelas.fr/eve-avis-test-matelas
Suggests that the business in the UK has turned the corner and is more self-sufficient / sustainable in recent months.
Why else would they look at the French market now?
Perhaps they see more opportunity, a larger market in the EU given they also produce mattresses in the EU?
Or... is the UK is to become a backwater, a market not worth the effort?
I suspect the UK is 'doing OK' now, so attention has turned to France.
Any thoughts?
What on Earth is going on here!
Far too oversold.
It was a holding RNS, nothing to see here for a few weeks/months yet.
People sell when there’s no immediate good news after a trading update like that.
It just confirmed that everything was still happening but nothing actually done yet.