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The pattern shows the likelihood of a Thursday post and there is no reason to expect Synairgen to be other than creatures of habit. It would seem they post when they are ready and not before.
Share Investment has to be objective, calm and unemotional. As one person said some time ago "You need to keep your head and calm analytical, detatched brain in place even when all around you are going all "Lily Savage" on you.
But, for this one?
I am not uncertain
Crl123
Totally with you on your post
News is at least a week away at best and echo your view on the neutral effect.
Summary logic may suggest the following on the balance of probabilities
1. The next news will be relatively all encompassing because there is precious little time left this year to deal with all medical and commercial matters to be ready for winter
2. We haven't had an update on the sister project for the early diagnosis and prognosis (Unless someone knows different?)
3. If it's results only next release with 'next steps' to start then it's potentially too late - low risk of that being the case
4. Patterns suggest news 7.00am on 23rd or 30th July (Unless they surprise us)
5. If it's later than these dates then a new treatment will have to be devised to treat the overloaded nervous systems of SNG PIs
6. As declared before..................................I am not uncertain
Assuming the best result and product - SNG may, just may, be considered to be a longer term hold. (Well, I have got £15 on my fantasy share model)
CW - Plus with a reasonable shareholding the problem will be selling. Amounts will be restricted especially as it approaches or reaches the peak. (More usually "No quotes available") I have a number of workarounds used over the years but there is no way on this planet that any of us could 'dump' everything at the top
No I don't see a spike downwards. May be a Monday push down initially after the SETS to load up then sell back to opeing price at close. These are becoming typical.
Talking about pricing in by the market, it's pretty certain that a COPD product has been priced in at the 35p to interest the CAP raise and give a 'safe'level at that stage. The problem with SNG is the level of commercial return that they will see.
Want a pitch for what it is worth? I see 85p as a new baseline if results good. (But if not regular news after that, as it will still start to drift back towards 35p if the momentum doesn't continue)
CW25 - by the way hope the house build is successful and the numbers add up. We have just binned one development project as the essential financials and projected values have moved adversely IMPO and residential housing is now a POS. (Pig on Speed)
The only SNG pattern I have seen is drift and spike to profit with a couple of major spikes (from memory) with the characteristic mini profit nonsense in between. Tomorrow? Well if still no news it could be allowed to drift again to 34p and repeat. Wednesday some Pimms Boys want some monthly returns to show so it spikes and drifts back - obviously I haven't a Scooby but these patterns and (let's call them the interim paper values) don't mean a thing and I have stopped looking. I look for news at 7am and if nothing, I leave it and occasionally check during the day. If it goes to the 20s then I will just smile as it will come back. It's just Captain Grizzly doing his thing, plus that would be the mother of all buying opportunities that I definitely would NOT ignore. (Even the Star trek mining guys would be in danger of being seriously sold to fund)
But in an Ax way - it won't drop into the 20s (Unless there is no news by late August perhaps), because even the MMs aren't that stupid to spark a wholesale sell off and collapse when there is no reason to do so. They like to keep it within controlled parameters. They also don't want to upset their regular bigger fish trading mates who could do them some serious damage.
So in the same way that I started posting - " I am not uncertain"
Someone chastised me for investing in Capita - their service is garbage, the CEO is an idiot etc etc etc. I just shrugged and said "Not bothered - I believe I can spot the patterns in the market, there is no news and the contracts are long term, the price rises, it falls, there is a defined bottom level which alters periodically and ponderously, I buy, I sell, I make money."
Why 35p for SNG? Why not? It's a natural bottom level for reasons everyone has articulated. Factors like a bear market when the default position is down unless there is an exceptional reason to rise. The vacuum of information and news will bring about MM playtime in the interim. They let spike loose, they laugh, they profit on the feeding frenzy, they release. The last SNG news appears to us like it was released on parchment scribed by ye trusty quill. Why not back to 6p? Well, the COPD backup should give some comfort there. I think there was a post on here recently thinking the days of the thirties (as in pence) were over. Next week watch out for the warning sign out for the spike with no news.
Moving forward, my gap is the sensible level of the upside. My gap is the information on the commercialisation of any success. The vultures in the deals are certain wanting their larger slice. I have my own financial model, part of which is for fun, family to take the Mick out of and includes 'fantasy shareland'. When news comes, if it doesn't lead to the level of filthy lucre then the spike will be short lived and the drift back begins again. Yes - I hope I am wrong.
Perhaps I should sign off as the Brothers Grimm................................maybe not.
USA suddenly buys up all the available Remsdesivir to corner the market.
UK Secretary of State has already announced Rmdvr as a wonder drug
Boris and Trump in behind scenes dealing to corner the world market with a wonder combination cure with Gilead and SNG
Evidence (gotta have evidence)
1. look at Gilead "Road to Damascusesq" epiphany into a gotta have an inhaled version
2. Gilead talking Outpatients version but behind the game with trials
3. Gilead and Synairgen making mutually compatible posts about needing something else to complete the circle of an overall treatment
4. Spot the Synergy? (No pun intended)
Discuss
(If this comes true then I already have had my PR people draft my follow on post.........simply saying............"Oops"
CRL - like the pub analogy. Confession time? I bought some gold exploration shares on the ASX just because our little group started joking about them having a reputation for drilling in the wrong place. The clincher was that they named their areas after Star Trek names - absolute must invest. They were cheap as a fraction of a cent, so I did. Er - at close on friday I'm 54% up and it's my biggest earner. WTAF?
True the pace seems lumbering, but steady. This is also the accelerated route to licencing.
The end game is to have a robust product, patented, market ready, tested and licenced that people buy. The manufacturing and the distribution need to be addressed. The messages to date have stated the timeline with meaningful dose quantities not being available until the end of this year. We are only in July now. It's our patience that we need to address perhaps.
If they announced the test results now, we would only be back waiting again for the licencing announcement; then the manufacturing details announcement; then any Joint Venture announcement. The home trial results are not expected until later this year. What can we do? Sit down in comfort, switch to whatever streaming service we favour and order in some 'cool ones'.
Matt Han**** is itching to have a home grown Covid success and the NHS already know Synairgen.
It's just the ABCs and if it makes money then the cap value grows and the share price rises.
Obviously not wishing to offend anybody's sensibilities by being this simplistic as we all know what I have just written.
If it helps, I have modelled the growth and profit level with increase. Just for fun I go right up to £15 a share.
Fantasy land? In 2016, I was sitting on Enphase (ENPH) shares at $0.85 as I believed in solar and their product. I eventually lost patience and needed the money back after 6 months or so. I looked recently in March out of interest as I never went back in with them and they were at $60+ a share. It can happen.
I have learned to trust my judgement; research to confirm the best I can and as before "I am not uncertain"
Thanks crl123 I just thought it was needed.
In the absence of information the vacuum is filled with everything and anything. We risk losing sight of the basics and the objective.
We analyse, we think, we consider, we commit. In our family we have differences, one thinks Avacta is the millionaire share. I think it is the 'Pig on Speed', no idea which way it is going to turn next. But the cancer science looks brilliant, however, one for next year or so maybe. Testing shorter term? Maybe.
If we look calmly at SNG, try to find the piece of information that says 'This isn't working'.
The hospital trial progression and expansion; the home trial progression and expansion; the new project with new money to look to work towards developing an early diagnosis and prognosis. SNG bulletins stating the treatment will have to work with an anti-viral as a complete solution; Gilead saying that Remsdesivir will have to work with a treatment to prevent the faulty immune response; Gilead suddenly switch to having to have an inhaled solution for Rdvr.
Unlike Mr Bill, we cannot Insider Trade, but we can research and join the dots to give the best picture we can as mere PIs.
SNG
Sitting here waiting patiently. News will come. Synairgen definitely have something here with a high probability of a treatment that will potentially extend well beyond Covid 19 and its successors.
Hoovering in the 35s as much as can without nerves in a calm assured way. Keep the faith.
In the words of Dollar Bill " I am not uncertain"