'Strong' start to the year20 Jun 2018 11:38
There is nothing wrong with banking a few profits after a parabolic move, especially when a stock becomes disproportionately large within one’s portfolio. Yet for Elektron, based purely on the fundamentals, we believe this would be a mistake despite the stock’s >5-fold rise since the 2017 lows.
Indeed, this morning the company said that Bulgin was continuing to experience buoyant demand, with YTD performance ahead of plan. Supported by a ‘record orderbook’, driving H1 expected sales up at least 8% LFL to £13.5m (LY £12.5m).
Accordingly, we have increased our FY19 turnover and EBIT forecasts for the division to £27.5m (vs £27.3 LY) and £6.9m (£7.2m) respectively. Elsewhere, EET is making good progress too, and tracking full year estimates. While Checkit is in “advanced discussions” with several global businesses to adopt its disruptive technology.
From a macro risk perspective, we understand Elektron has minimal exposure to the recently proposed ‘US-EU/Chinese’ trade tariffs, even though c.64% of revenues are generated outside the UK. Instead there may actually be a small positive forex benefit given $ appreciation vs the £ (6%) and Tunisian Dinar (10%) over the past 2 months.
So what does this all mean? Well, in terms of the group our FY19 EBIT climbs from £2.0m to £2.3m – which in turn pushes the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation 2p higher to 62p/share.
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