Member Info for epiphany121

Auson,

I usually don't want to say I told you so, but then I told you so (about the irrelevance of PMO's results on ENQ's SP). Until there's clarity on Kraken, we'll continue to drift lower is my take. The market is obviously very sceptical at this time, albeit unjustifiably so, IMO.

Being pragmatic, I can't see why PMOs numbers would impact ENQ's SP for anything more than a few minutes. The current SP is grappling with worries over Kraken and until there's clarity on that in a couple of weeks' time, there won't be any real move upwards. Down move though is always quite easy and if Brent goes lower from here, in the short term so will ENQ. This is where we'll be for the next 2 weeks.

It just doesn't make any sense, Romaron. I didn't watch the bond price recently and it's good to note that it's reacting in line with Brent prices, but the Equity will not probably follow suit until there's Kraken clarity on the call in a couple of weeks' time.

HK is now heading up to Kraken, me thinks; Thecurrent path aligns with AK. It should get there tomorrow, but hook-up may be Thursday though. As Hitman was speculating, it would be nice if the workover was behind us and we get another load in before the 2018 results day. ;-)

Also, Brent has averaged circa 64.70 or so in the past month, and we should be in the 65s average soon enough. A push to the high 60s/lwo 70s should come through in the next few weeks.

GLA..

Cheers, Chilts. That makes sense to me - 7th arrival and 8th departure from AK for HK.

The Mackmyra I had was a single malt and certainly wasn't in the Coke mix Whisky territory. ;-) Enjoy the exhibition, Pelle. I may be out travelling in South Africa during that week.

Enjoy your weekend.

AS is taking a break at Lerwick, it looks like...

Pelle..Lol. If you like to drink Mackmyra Swedish whisky, I'll gladly join you at the risk of damaging my liver,,;-)

I'll get some of that and Octomore Whisky for the Summer 2020 60p party. :-) I'm realistic and I know there's a long road ahead for ENQ and that can only come to fruition through a minimum 70s Brent price and stabilised Kraken production.

9 rigs down overall - in fact 10 oil rigs down and 1 gas rig added. i'll smoke whatever you smoked just today.

This is like Deja Vu, but the internals are better. Permian's lost 7 rigs out of these 10 rigs and a couple of North Dakota/Wyoming shale patches accounting for the rest..

Ok, lets have a fun weekend bet then. It's still headed to GL, and not AK.

Maybe I'll go to the AGM this year and I'll buy you a bottle of the Rochefort 10, if 11% Trappist Ale is something that appeals to you. There are a few Belgian pubs in Soho where we can get it.

If Whisky is your thing, I don't mind a peaty Ardbeg Uigeadail.. ;-)

Anyone hear why Brent fell to $65 just now, other than triple witching?

as usual, fantasies are quite easy to conjure up..

GKB - it's not compensation that we're talking about here, but reduced day rates for AK to BUMI, as there's a dependency between day rates and the production volumes at Kraken. I'd posted about this a few days ago. This is why BUMI had to take a large charge in Q4.

Thanks, Hitman. It's great to have you on here and I do hope you post as regularly as you can, given that you are far more technically savvy than most of us on here, myself certainly anyway, and I too enjoyed reading your posts on III. I remember reading that you and Romaron went to the AGM last year.

We've also had ProdOpt on here since yesterday and it's great to hear views from a well rounded set of people here.MO's posting frequency is higher now and that's most welcome. :-) All in all, that's a good mix of views. I'm not one for one saying that everything's hunky-dory with ENQ, and the Kraken issues are really weighing on the SP. I'm not sure how the AK FPSO under performance could be tied to individual DCs/production wells, and we've heard from someone today that potentially BUMI could be waiting till DC4 is in place before carrying out large scale mods. It's all speculation on here, but hopefully we get additional commentary in the FY18 report and how BUMI could be looking to address these issues. They've stated as much that it's in their interests to get to a good place with AK.

Best

If anyone wants to read BAB's Q4 report, here's the landing page link. Click on the Q4 report link on the landing page

http://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/viewHtml?e=2933536

Welcome Hitman1a..Are you the same Hitman who was a frequent poster on the II board?

What you point out sounds logical and I can only but hope that indeed is the reason why there may lower production at this time. And MO has already pointed out that TL is nearing completion with DC4 and so, we'll wait and see what happens with the next offload.

Best

Chilts et all,

here's some additional detail from BUMI's Q4 detailed release. It's confirming what the majority of the sane people on this board have been saying that the issue is with the bleeding FPSO and that there is no risk of reserves downgrade. Nincompoops will be nincompoops - there's no assuaging their Pillockish fears

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FPO revenue decreased due to lower revenue from Armada TGT FPSO after signing the extension
agreement in August 2018 and lower revenue from Armada Kraken FPSO mainly contributed by lower
vessel productivity in Q4 2018;

The Group posted a loss of RM1,262.3 million for Q4 2018 and a loss attributable to Owners of the Company
of RM1,262.9 million. The losses are due to impairment of Armada Kraken FPSO and certain OSV vessels, and
net allowance for impairment losses.

With reference to Note 10 Segmental Information, The FPO segment result decreased to RM153.4 million for
Q4 2018 as compared to RM196.5 million for Q3 2018 due to lower contribution from Armada TGT FPSO after
signing the extension agreement and lower productivity from Armada Kraken FPSO in Q4 2018 compared to
Q3 2018

Based on the assessment, an impairment charge of RM2,199.7 million for property, plant and equipment has
been recognised during the year, of which RM1,613.2 million and RM586.5 million was charged for the Armada
Kraken FPSO and certain OSV vessels respectively. The impairment assessment on Armada Kraken FPSO was
carried out based on the amendment agreement to the charter agreement signed between AKPL, EnQuest
Heather Limited, EnQuest ENS Limited and Nautical Petroleum Limited on 27 August 2018, and lower
availability since final acceptance in September 2018.

Cheers, Chilts. If they've taken impairment charges on AK, it stands to reason that their day rates on AK have dropped as well and that's in line with what was discussed in the H1 call in September. Let's see what we hear from ENQ in the FY 18 commentary and I'm also sure that the Malaysian analysts will be out with their research notes in the day or two to provide more colour on what's happening with AK.

Pelle - Production on 174 - that is the Magnus production profile and it clearly is 100%.

The cost/NPV profile is for 75% and that's what these costs indicate. Look at page 202 and that gives you a holistic steer of sales/opex for the 75%. And remember the OPEX/CAPEX figures is in GBP on these pages and not USD. So, the 75 mill GBP translates to circa $105 mill OPEX at a 1.4 USD GBP exchange rate plus tariffs at NLGP is $4 mill and for FLAGS it's $5.5 million. SVT and Ninian Pipelines must account for the remaining $15 to $20 million - all in all accounting for the additional $130 mill costs for magnus 75%.

I hope this makes sense,

Best

Thanks, Triplecombo. Good to hear from you after a while.. :-)