Member Info for epiphany121

I don't think it'll be 30 kbopd for all of March - Closer to 26k though and that's not too bad. Slowly but surely works for me, Pelle. :-)

Best

Yes, indeed, HItman. I hope they don't close too soon tomorrow morning and push up the SP before I switch. The current indicated run rate is circa 40K and this is what Cairn basically alluded to would happen once DC4 goes online and that would bring the yearly average up to the guided 30 to 35 kbopd for the year.

We can hope that things will get better with additional fixes/changes implemented by Bumi.

Hitman - remember your dream about the next load on results day - that just about may be coming true. Lol..:-) Hollywoodesque, if HK gets there for Thursday, ;-)

Don't know about leaks yet, KO, given that the SP has gone nowhere. Maybe someone is quietly accumulating. I switched out of PMO in my ISA/trading accounts to ENQ. I still have a few in my SIPP and I'll switch most of them tomorrow to ENQ, It is great news about HK heading to AK and that's a positive sign as hell for a while and backs up what Cairn said on their call - Production will increase once DC4 comes online. I'm not sure if DC4 is fully online yet, but it must be close enough.

And then we wait for Thursday's update...:-)

Evening P,

2 more days and we'll know, won't we? And you and the others have captured the key 'asks' from ENQ, and I won't bother repeating them again. We just need to see what transpires then and reserve judgement until that day. As we all know, reiteration of debt reduction focus will be important.

On a side note, Brent has been trading in a remarkably tight range for the past month. The monthly average price is now above $66 and is nicely FCF generating for ENQ. Q2 is less than a couple of weeks away and it looks a large draw is what's needed to push the price above $70 soon enough.

I've noted a few posters in the past few days (mostly shorts/perpetually negative ones) claiming Kraken crude discount to Brent - I fail to see what kind of bubble they live in, but even the middle-east heavy crude grades moved up to a premium over Brent from a few bucks discount noted a few months ago. And these crudes are sour as well. Kraken has the additional advantage of being a sweet and heavy grade. I suppose it would be nice to hear what kind of pricing Kraken gets nowadays - I suspect it would be a small premium over Brent.

Best

Many of the LTHs are in the same boat, Jan. I'll still stick my neck out and say that we should at least be double this price by this time next year, and maybe approach the 50s, after the H1 2020 update. This is assuming a low 70s Brent. If Kraken or Brent over-performs, then we may get there sooner, and you'll be wearing your shiny new Guccis'. :-)

Keep the faith - we'll get there!!

Nice, HItman. You have expensive shoe tastes - A la Fendi/Prada/Gucci/Giorgio Armani then? ;-)

I switched some more today from PMO to ENQ - I can only but hope that my assessment works out well in the end. ;-)

GLA...

Awww..You know who I'm talking about, Romaron. Lol..;-) It's the yawn inducing Lovey dovey

Meanwhile in the REAL WORLD, for 2019, ENQ continues to produce oil in it's forecast production range. I'll leave it at that!!!

Cheers, Chilts. We can but watch the next few offloads and make a better assessment as to how AK is performing. And there should be more clarity in Thursday's announcement too.

Nice. I did some switching too today from PMO to ENQ. I believe that the market is way too negative and has been overly consumed by the Kraken headlines.

Fernan - as usual, I disagree with your numbers as I'm not really sure why you need to make all sorts of calculation when they're not needed. ;-) The Feb 2019 Ops update clearly states the that deferred payments from 2018 are $100 million and not $30 that you state - please look it up.

Cash capital expenditures expected to be approximately $275 million; includes a combined total of approximately $100 million related to deferred payments from prior periods and phasing of spend from 2018

Capex for 2019 broadly includes the following - DC4 remainder capex, Magnus 2 wells drilling, Scolty/Crathes pipeline replacement and PM8 Seligi, and maybe a few minor items. All of these constitute the $175 million capex. So, I can see Sustenance capex at around $100 million that Hitman puts it at, and not the close to $200 mill that you've extrapolated.

Nice one, Hitman. I agree that the Capex focus after 2019 should be narrowed to a few development wells and/or well interventions. Keep that closer to $100 mill and focus on winding down debt. Maybe worth questioning AB about this in more detail during the AGM.

Fernan - a big correction to your cost estimate for drilling a well. I'm not sure where you're getting the $50 million per well number from, but as an example, the cost of drilling the 2 new Magnus wells in 2019 is $27 million (as stated in the prospectus). Magnus wells may be a bit cheaper as it may not need the range of costs that other North Sea areas may do.

The cost of development wells varies based on where in the North Sea these wells are being drilled (WoS/SNS/CNS/NNS) and as per the most recent OGA report, costs per development well over these 4 areas, on an average, fell to £22 mill per well in 2017 from £33 mill in 2016. NNS costs were £20 mill and SNS were the cheapest at £11 mill. There was still a push to reduce well costs in 2018 and I won't be surprised to have seen them drop more. The $50 mill well cost sounds overcooked to me and I'd like to see where you're getting that from.

Lots of companies get Share buyback authorisations approved and never use it. That's pretty normal to me. If my memory serves me right, I thought there was a clause, possibly in the Amended RCF agreement that prevents ENQ from re-purchasing shares. I'll check if I can find that.

Point taken on the 6 monthly returns being better than some of the realised IRR rates on wells, however the real world doesn't work that way. ;-)

The Goldman cheerleaders are doing their best to try and talk up Brent..;-)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-demand-beating-bearish-forecasts-121542391.html

Lol, Pelle. What is this now - the cult of Kraken? :-)

We just need to be patient and wait till next week for the update and for DC4 to start extracting oil. As Hitman was alluding to today, I won't be surprised if one the brokers either started a rumour about yet another stoppage at Kraken OR if the weather now has really affected AK (yet again). All speculation, IMO - but that could be another angle.

As lots of people of have been saying today, the valuation is mind-boggling and I wish I kept some real powder dry for this price level. Selling PMO and buying ENQ is an option for me, and I've done that a bit, but not fully out of PMO yet. I believe (in the absence of real news) that ENQ is way more undervalued than PMO.

Let's not forget that for 60p party to happen by Summer 2020 (my original call), ENQ needs to execute flawlessly and be helped by Brent too to get debt lower. Let's see if we catch a break next week.

Lol..we do. it's called marinetraffic.com.

Very painful this and the shorts have been proved right. And today's leg down is on a high volume day and I do pay attention to that. Who knows where this may end up ahead of the report on Thursday. I did buy some today as an average down, but deep in the red, as you can imagine.

I'm keeping the faith until there's more clarity on the call. Market/Shorts are just piling on.

So, $65 mill was repaid early in November last year, and what's actually due to be repaid in 2019 for the RCF, is $210 million. Maybe they already repaid early a portion or all of £110 mill due in April - we'll know next week.

The market needs to be re-assured next week that ENQ has an all round plan for Kraken and Debt. I do agree hedging could've been a whole better and ENQ were caught sitting on their hands back in September/October last year. They were drinking the Goldman Koolaid (as the Americans would like to say) and were no doubt thinking Brent would up to the 90s. Hedging is not the reason why we're languishing here though - Kraken is the primary driver for now. And the market knows that Magnus cash flow in it's entirety can't be used to reduce debt. These are the key sticking points for me.