Member Info for epiphany121

I doubt there'd be a big market correction with the re-opening in full swing in the US and more stimulus waiting in the wings. There is a rotation on from Value to Growth, and oil stocks (and other re-opening stocks) are getting pulverised in the past 3 or 4 weeks. Once Covid news normalises and the fear settles down, re-opening plays will be back in demand - August I'd suspect?

I'm not in the big correction camp - not at this time anyway and not without Fed sending out Taper signals and even more importantly, rates being hiked. That is a 2022 story.

Stupmy - I received an email from corporate.actions@ig.com. I replied to this email and that was that. I had acknowledgement from them a couple of days later.

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I'm with IG and II. With II, I can opt in for the OO shares online with II, whilst with IG, I had to respond/reply to their email asking if I intend to take up the OO shares and they've 'accepted' and expect cleared funds by the OO date. IG should've emailed you too, I'd imagine? If not, contact customer services and get that sorted.

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Average between $75 and 80 for Q3 - simples.

Be calm, KO. Buy a put, as L3 suggested, if it helps you keep your sanity. Everytime oil/SP falls, you come here with abuses and your moaning gibberish - not good for your lood pressure.

I'm not sure which one's worse - KO moaning or KO analysing. Where's a PIX break-out when I need it?

Something about UAE aiming to boost production outside of OPEC. I guess they'll be pulling out soon.

KO - please stop projecting your superlative/unparalleled traits such as frustration on completely unworthy people like me. What have I ever done to deserve such an accolade?

On another note, CBOE is looking to bring a new index to the market and the first thing that crossed my mind was we need something better than the Volatility index (VIX). I'll push for PIX, the Panic Index, and I'll nominate you as the lead market-maker. Do you think you're up for this challenge or will you be a No-Show like at the 2019 AGM?

Chaps - all commodities are selling off big today. Copper has fallen 4 to 5% from the high this morning. European gas has fallen 10 to 12% today too - it's not just an oil story. Panicky KO does what he does best, Panic. Get over it - commodities go up and down, and today is just a profit taking day. The short/medium term beyond today is solidly bullish and there's more money supply on the way through the Infrastructure spend in the US.

P - we also have 7.5 million volume as of now. That is a very positive sign, even when Brent is showing some signs of fatigue.

Thanks for the detailed info/analysis, MRC. We're setup up nicely for a breakout to year highs for Enquest. Brent will help, even if gets a bit choppy at around these levels. I won't be surprised if we get a $80 average for Q3 and a small fall to the mid/high 70s in Q4. Iran could be a dark horse, but between OPEC+ and rising demand, that will be absorbed, after the initial short term volatility.

I'm pretty optimistic that we'll close the GE deal sooner than the expected end of Q3 and add the revs/reserves to our books. The stars are aligning well for us.

Morning L3 - Thanks for the info.

US Shalers - I have CPE, CLR, DVN, CDEV, REI. DVN pays the fattest dividend and they have a FCF dependent variable dividend policy. They've all come a long way from the bottom though.
A Rig provider - ICD is a favourite of mine - still highly undervalued at $5 in the market versus a $35 book value. Debt due in 2023 is a concern, but rigs will slowly come back over H2 and 2022 - there's no escaping that reality with oil prices where they are. I don't think they will go mental with large production increases, but they'll have to drill and complete wells to keep up the production and grow it some.

I'd say that a internationally diversified Canadian company, VET is a good bet. LIghtly hedged for 2021/22 and should go back to dividends next year.

ok, ta. About 1.1 million shares so far. Nothing spectacular, but then it's the summer blues too!!!

MRC - that graphic looked like an Enquest produced one. Did you get that from the Enquest site?

I don't think I quite picked up on what you/others were discussing about the boulder. Is there risk to Magnus production should it continue to get there for a while yet?

Cheers

Morning P - it looks like the Swedes have decided to park their concerns over OO not being available to them and buy on the open market instead? ;-) FCF will be broadly good in the coming months.

Evening Jan - I believe there's an easy answer to that. There are a couple of key factors driving the spread lower. Firstly, US Production isn't growing now versus the circa 2 mmbbls/day increase in 2018 and the approx 1 mmbbls/day increase in 2017. Secondly, US demand has recovered faster, in spite of the Jet Fuel debacle and that's providing support from the financial players. Lots more money is going into WTI futures than into Brent and that's fuelling this narrowed spread.

As you've pointed out the differentials between Brent and WTI back in 2018 was $10 or more. WTI prices are now higher than they were back in 2018 - We're looking at highest levels since 2014. When Brent hit circa 85 in October 2018 - WTI was probably around or just under 75 at that time.

I honestly can't see these low spreads continuing. At these spread levels, Shipping costs are a higher for WTI going say to the Far-East form the US and unless there's at least a 3 or 4 bucks difference, export demand should start to fall.

Yep - she's a good resource. Giovanni Staunovo is a quality source for oil news in general.

https://twitter.com/staunovo

Also chec out Abhi Rakendran.. https://twitter.com/ARaj_Energy

Oil didnt go up much last week even with such large US stock drawdowns and that was all down to the supposedly incoming OPEC+ news . It definitely isn't overbought in the near term.

80s incoming and nothing to really stop this in the near term. Expect the White House to formally make some noises in the near term and Iran could be a near term head-wind too - we'll see.

Chilting - these are a couple of simple and yet true observations. Enquest has been delivering in the guided range for years now and I have no doubt that the team will operationally deliver. Stuff can always happen, but you don't always sit and worry about that outcome and then also run a (oil) company. Maybe L3's mental make-up is such an 'extreme' glass half-empty, but we investors can't base our investment thesis on such outcomes.

COming out of this pandemic driven downturn and the resultant enormous liquidity sloshing about the financial markets, I was happy to bet on bullish oil prices in 2021/22. They've played out nicely so far and I won't be surprised if my circa $74 Brent average for 2021 happens. 80s soon for Brent and Enquest will catch-up, however negative L3 and his hombre GKB are. ;-) I view them both as contrarian investment markers - I'll look to sell when they start offering reasons why oil looks bullish. Till then, stay invested!!!

Good luck all with the higher Brent prices and the OO closing in the coming weeks.

L3 - reading your posts today, they sounded like a compilation of reasons of why someone wouldn't be invested, nay would be short, a company's shares. What do I know about new age investors though, eh? Time for me to go back to Uni and take specialist human behaviour lessons I suppose?

Now how does highest gasoline demand for the Friday before July 4th weekend since 2017 sound?

https://twitter.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1411343168591761408

EIA weekly stocks on THursday next week will continue to show big draws over the coming weeks.