Member Info for epiphany121

Hi MO,

Yes, Ryder cup was riveting and it was brilliant how Europe came back after a bad first session. Enquest will follow suit. ;-)

Did you see any of it? What a fantastic course and crowds.

Chilts - welcome back. I just saw what MO wrote and hopefully it's Thornbury.

MO - Brent has topped up 84 just now and that's music to our ears. Forward prices till end of 2019 are now over $80 - just brilliant.

if this sustains, 2019 would be a marquee year for ENQ..;-). Well, getting ahead of myself now - lol..

Everyone's world is different, KO. No two of us are alike, but at least L3 posts fact based objections/opinions - just not those based on being AB's purported lovechild. ;-)

Cheers for your feedback, MO. Spot on about the no shutdown requirement. And you've been mentioning well tests in the context of #24. However, this may well spill over into #25 too and so, if it takes a bit longer and we're in the range quoted by CNE as well, that's OK.

Kick on up Brent. ;-) At these price levels, the Magnus acquisition WILL turn out to be a genius move. Crikey, imagine the NPV-10 for Magnus at $90 Brent - GCA have already modelled NPV-10 of $695 mill at a Brent price of $80.

As an additional note, I wanted to also confirm what I'be heard back from ENQ's IR regarding hedges for H1. Yes, they do have a collar structure in place for H2 with floor price at an average of 66 (as confirmed in the H1 report) and the ceiling price in high 70s, as indicated by AB/JS in the earnings call. We do have a collar in place, that limits some of the upside, particularly if Brent runs up to the 90s in Q4. However, this is a prudent decision in my view, to offset some of the put premium.

They have started putting in place hedges for 2019, but with a higher put strike price and also higher call strike price than in place for H2 2018. Hedged volumes aren't public yet, but we should know more in the next update, hopefully sometime next month, maybe?

They're being quite prudent with these moves, IMO. In an ideal world, I'd just puts at this time, and sell calls post November, IF Brent pushes above 90 because of the Iran sanctions. However, we can't time everything right, but buying puts only, without selling any calls is not cheap from a cost (and cash flow) viewpoint.

I'm willing to be patient and let AB/JS execute for Enquest over the next few months and quarters. They get a thumbs-up from me!!! :-)

Best

It's a fine balancing act for ENQ with Kraken as it's their biggest asset. They can't be sounding too optimistic if AK can't really process more from the current wells/DCs and ENQ misses production targets as a consequence. And hence there's no change to production targets for the year. They have put paid to hopes of AK hitting 50K plateau this year with the current DCs in place. Even Cairn has confirmed the expected average of 35 to 40k boepd for H2 and this is what we can hope for at best.

BUMI would've made some more changes to AK recently and hence, I'd wait for a few more offloads and assess how things look then. We may even need to wait till DC4 to really know what plateau rates would look like.

Best

I can only say that one load doesn't make a trend. The last two were indicated at 40K. MO has said something about well testing, but I don't know, TBH.

We'll see where the next few stack up before rushing to judgement, plus we have DC4 coming online in Q1 2019.

In the meantime - we're all intelligent enough to hold/buy/sell based on known facts and assessment of the future as a consequence..

It's unlikely that they'll be mixing AK's crude load with the regular Brent crude that is stored at Sullom Voe. NH is likely to wait for a North America bound tanker for the offload.

Evening L3,

OGA data for July should be available on the evening of the 2nd. This is what I've certainly seen the last 3 times or so.

We'll be happy to hear from anyone who'll be at the EGM tomorrow. Please do let us know.

Best

Cheers, MO.

Brent is screaming up today. Q4 - let's have a great one for ENQ. ;-)

Good luck and weekend all...

Morning L3 - with regards to Kraken pricing, the realised price was quoted at less than $5 a barrel in the last AR and that was with the early oil being pumped out. The gap is likely to be closer to $3 than $5, and I may have even read something to this effect.

ENQ has their own marketing team responsible for trading/selling crude and that cuts out middlemen (as MO stated), saving up to a dollar a barrel on their commission. In terms of crude pricing, you are delving into the crude trading nuances, but typically price is agreed prior to shipment, an LC is opened and cash realised on delivery.

Cynically, this may have been AB's grand plan - hold back on full throttle production until Brent gets over 80 and then let go. Lol..It's probably ENQ getting lucky, but if our luck hold up, Brent may stay at these levels for a while and enable ENQ to pump at optimal capacity on AK as well as other assets like Magnus/Alma and get the money that we deserve. Would we have rather ENQ pump a lot of oil in 2016/2017 - not as a current shareholder. Maybe AB is incredibly lucky in that sense. ;-) We'll know over time though.

No, I'm not sure of issues that PMO had at Solan..

Best

MO - Orkney has updated NH's ETA as 23:00 on the 28th. Working backwards from there, hookup may actually happen tomorrow morning and we can see NH loitering around AK at this time. That gives a load time lag of circa 15.5 days and a 32k boepd rate since the last load. Not great obviously and can only wait to see what happens for #25..

Cheers, Jim. ENQ will start trading ex-rights on the 2nd of October (in line with ENQ's announced schedule as well). We have a few more days for ENQ to hit new highs above 45p, pre-rights.

Evening L3,

What we've read and heard about Kraken pricing is that it's typically somewhere around between $2 to $4 discount to Brent spot pricing. This is because of the heavier nature of the Kraken oil. MO has previously posted density figures for Kraken's oil. TBH, I'm unsure how much of Kraken oil is hedged, I'd suspect that some of it is indeed hedged.

What I meant by a contrarian is that you do question what ENQ is doing, for example, around AK's production, and why there was no clear guidance in the H1 results, etc. I have a sunny side up disposition in my investment strategy and that inherently creates a positive bias in evaluating a company's prospects. At the current Brent levels this thesis may well be OK and I do have to agree that it's not the best when Brent is $10 - $15 lower. Unless production ramps up substantially, ENQ will not be ideally placed to get rid of debt with Brent around $65.

We have ways to track both AK/Alma though and let's hope MO's watchful eyes spot a tanker out to Alma soon enough. Also, DC4 will be underway at Kraken soon and production 'should' ramp up to close to 50k boepd by Q1 2019. If we do get plateau rates at that level for a couple of years starting in 2019, backed by Brent at circa $80, that's great for ENQ.

November update will set the trend for the SP going into the bullish period till the end of the year. 55p (post rights) by the end of the year will certainly not be in the realms of fantasy.

Lol..yes, best bubbly indeed. Smashing day today on high volumes at over 18.5 million. It would be fantastic to see us break through the 45p triple top in the next day or two. On the back of today's price action/volume, tomorrow might just be the day.

Best

Read drivel..not dribble

Need I say more, you know you very well, Squif - I didn't quite take you for a donkey, but then the universe teaches me every day. Use a line and rejoice in what the world has to offer, even if your one true love AB is thrown in the mix.

Oh, I listen to the other side very well, just when it's backed by facts, not mindless dribble. There are enough sensible, fact-based contrarians on this board - L3/Fernan come to mind. Your catch-all and the one fact that AB is brilliant, is well known here.

Sleep well, Donkey man!!!! Rest peacefully in that thought that a rising brent nicely lifts ENQ's boat - we don't need that useless AB...

Evening MO - we woke up to a sudden rush of bullish calls on Brent/WTI today, with the news over the weekend about OPEC/Russia deciding not to move the production needle. Brent in the 80s through Q4 will be fantastic for ENQ. Think of Magnus' NPV with Brent at these levels and how quickly we can pay down BP. We don't need to make projections based on a load - we'll give it a few more and make a more sensible assessment of AK's H2 production.

Yawn, Squif...Same old wonderful dribble. Back to bed - it's too late in the evening for you. Who said to you that ENQ 'will hopefully' get it's hands on Magnus. There's no hope with ENQ trust me, AB has decided not to exercise the option, as the RI won't go through. No Kraken, No Magnus - I'll maybe need to drink whatever you are drinking to drown out these joyous thoughts. I can't afford to be feeling good - it just doesn't help my investment. Onwards and upwards only works with a line (or two), not ENQ...

Cheers, MO. AIS for NH right now does point to Kraken and it'll be a STS with Thornbury possibly.

At 14.5 days and 500K load, that's a 35k BOPD run rate for this load, after circa 40K bopd for the last 2 loads, that's nothing to frown upon. And it's inline with what Cairn also stated in their call. And Brent is helping well too. November settlement (front end now) closed at 81.20 and December at 80.64.

I toasted just now with a glass of Rioja that we'd opened yesterday - I'm saving the Champagne till the weekend. I can't get too pissed as I have an early morning travel tomorrow;-)

Best all

Cheers, MO. Fingers crossed.

I do..Quotes aren't getting updated, are they?