Member Info for epiphany121

Auson - it's just a bad month to be in stocks, historical. And today's is shaping up to be another day. Brent/WTI off big, Dow futures off big and Caterpillar just went out and blamed Trumpty's tariffs for higher costs and lower profits, and Dow falls more. And Numpty is still squeezing China. All in all, Brent/WTI will continue to be pounded over the next few days, as key technical levels are now breached to the downside. Another 6 trading days before ugly October comes to an end.

Morning - I'll take Low 40s by the end of the year, after operations updates are out next month. I still believe the Market needs to hear positive debt reduction sounds before a real re-rate. And October has been horrible for all oilies, just not the European ones, but many US based ones too, including ones with good fundamentals and many have hit 52 weeks lows just in the past 2 or 3 days. There seems to be a certain angst that oil prices aren't sustainable at these levels and hence the indiscriminate selling.

I can't wait for October to be done and dusted. And for Trumpty to stop squeezing China this hard. Clear out these two factors and Brent should be stable at these or slightly higher levels.

No, I don't do jokes with money. I'm at a loss to explain this inexplicable phenomenon and I look forward to your insight, or from any other boarder if they do know what's happened to the 500m.

Perhaps you're carrying all that load on your back - that could explain where the 500m is stashed away? I can't hazard a guess beyond this though, however hard I tried!!!

Nick, Ta. So, there was a good reason to bring the SP down today so that these shares are taken up on the cheap by JPM/BOFAML's 'clients'. Nice.

Once October shakes out and the Magnus deal is completed, I believe that fundamentals will kick-in and this would be higher. I'll try and buy some more tomorrow if it does stay at these levels.

PRDaynes - the economic date is 1/1/2017 and all revenues/net cashflows accruing since then will be assigned to ENQ. You can see from the RI prospectus that circa $163 mill revenues accrued from Magnus to BP in H1 2018 and all of these would be transferred over to ENQ. And so would the net cashflows from 1/1/2017 go towards paying off the vendor load, which is to reduce to $100 million (from $200 million) by end of 2018. Given that BP is still owning these assets till completion, BP is liable for tax payment on these cash flows in the interin till completion, and this reduces the cash flows accruing to ENQ. After completion, no tax provisions will need to be made and 'gross' cash flows can be used both to pay down the vendor loan and also start accruing to ENQ for debt reduction.

There are good tax advantages related to Magnus cash flows after the Magnus transaction completion date..All the market and these blinded analysts care about is headline debt reduction and that will happen meaningfully in 2019.

ENQ_Holder - the rights have merged in my Interactive Investor account. They've not yet done so in my IG account.

MO - all these sell-side investment banks have agendas and yes, they do move markets, even if it is always transitory. We pin own strategy on fundamental outcomes and we'll soon see who'll win this tug of war.

very best to you...

Naughty, Jan. But hey, a one-track mind almost certainly never harms, not when it comes to how you're thinking..Lol.. ;-)

I missed this news, Chilts. It was out in the morning at 8ish, I can see. I'll stick my neck and say that the downgrade effect will probably last as long as the upgrade effect did. It'll boil down to fundamentals eventually and this where execution comes into play. Jefferies indicate that production risk is a key factor for CNE and ENQ, and from that statement, they seem to be alluding to Kraken. Let's watch those tankers, shall we?

My great, great grandfather's graphs are indicating it'll go to 6p - but they're in black and white and I don't trust them. My uncle's graphs combined with his charts, are indicating it'll go to 148p - but then that 720p colour screen's been frozen for 5 years and may not be very trust worthy. Safe to say it'll hang around between these 2 price levels - that's as much as my crystal ball will tell me.

It's obscene now, MO. My old mantra still holds good - the market can be irrational for longer than you're solvent. Thankfully, I'm not leveraged on my position, but I wish I hadn't bought some more in the low 30s recently - but then, you can never time the bloody market. Bought some more today, knowing well that the SP may get pushed to the mid 20s. Who knows..However, I'm serious danger of becoming a one-trick pony with ENQ and that's contrary to my investment approach.

But, just like Trump, these are no ordinary times for ENQ, as there are too many push and pull forces. I can only be but patient and wait till the dust settles.

Best..

Cheers, Romaron. Agreed about Magnus being a deal we simply had to do, and as far as I'm aware there are no other pending large cash investments in new acquisitions now or in 2019. I expect to see some net debt reduction in 2018 (unlike Barclays who claim this is all too opaque) and certainly a good deal more in 2019. We're seeing some pain today and I'll get rid of some of my Shale investments to add ENQ a bit more in the next few days.

I believe in the ENQ story and I'm convinced that ENQ will deliver - DYOR though..

Well put, SmokingAces...Cheers

All - put this in perspective. The rights closed just about now, the Magnus acquisition is not yet closed and October is not yet over. If you really are long-term minded, wait for more fundamental news to come through.

Could the SP go down more - sure, why not. Traders will do what they'll do. Volumes have been Anaemic anyway in the past few days as the SP has come down with Brent and taking a more medium/long term view, I wouldn't pay too much credence to this down move, even though the portfolio values for holders are down.

Morning MO,

Cheers. Yes, I noted NH was headed to Aberdeen and due on the 23rd and was hoping for maybe a 25th hook-up. Time will tell. AS is also due out at Lerwick tonight and unsure where it's headed to next. And not to forget HK as option post an Alvheim offload. All possibilities indeed - and here's hoping for one of these..

Afternoon L3 - I don't have answers to any of your 3 questions. Alma may be about the only one we could track through tanker offloads, but I'll go with what IR has indicated and that we should be in the circa 5K BOPD rate for Alma/Galia. This is all we can model at this time.

I'm not sure if MO has details of Malaysia well production rates, but I'd think this is unlikely or MO would've shared this with us.

As Nick stated here - Operating costs were $22.6 per BOE and Depletion/Depreciation is circa $23.8 per BOE - these are all stated H1 figures and are either stated in the H1 report (operating costs) or can be easily calculated from the details provided in the report, as is the case with Depletion/Depreciation costs. I'm unsure why people think these details aren't provided by ENQ?

Obviously, the Depletion expense is a non-cash charge.

Hey MO - Minerva is now headed to Philly - that's about par for the course, with the majority of Kraken loads still headed for the Americas ...

KO - why would you want to believe someone who makes silly and outrageous claims like these? They're just as good as claims that any donkey would make - so, basically useless...