Member Info for epiphany121

I'd wager that Alma will probably be steady production of 5K BOPD. But, like you said, that's not the game changer for ENQ. The original costs are sunk costs and whatever incremental production we get now is just a plus. I'm more interested with the 3 big beasties would produce - AK/Magnus/PM8-Seligi.

MO - do remind of the Rosé you'd recommend..;-)

Pelle - I remember you saying you live in Sweden. We have customers in Stockholm, Malmo and Gothenburg, and I've been there quite a few times. I've had the pleasure of drinking a single malt whisky and i must say I quite enjoyed it. £1 meetup in Cape Town - that's a nice thought. ;-)

Have a good weekend

Hey MO - Will give that a go then. Is there a particular vineyard's pinotage rosé that you recommend, and a year if applicable?

We do like visiting the western cape vineyards - there are some amazing ones in fantastic locations with amazing restaurants. Vergelegen estate comes to mind as an amazing vineyard with excellent Cabernet and Shiraz in Red and Chardonnay in white. They have this simply wonderful restaurant called Camphors. Anglo American's AGMs are held in the estate quite often. Here's a link to the restaurant/vineyard (click around) - http://www.vergelegen.co.za/camphors.html. Maybe they do Rosés, I can't quite remember. There are a few more like this scattered around the Stellenbosch region of the western cape.

Moving on - yes, I don't mind negative opinions being expressed by some so called longs. Even though I can't for the life of me understand why someone would have negative bias and claim to be long, which is plain donkey shiite, you do find such people though.

Well whatever - it's the weekend and that calls for a toast (and a round of golf). Enjoy the weekend all...

MO - I do like the western cape whites and the odd reds. Not had too many SA rosé wines, TBH, but I'll take your word for it. ENQ will deliver for us all in 2019 and you'll have your vineyard too.. ;-)

Have a nice weekend

Cheers, MO. It's a bad day on the US stock markets with treasury yields rising sharply and oil is still holding up pretty well, considering.

How's that Rosé looking? An early toast to the next tanker at AK, perhaps, as it's been just over a week now and hopefully we get one on Wednesday. ENQ will continue executing and 2019 is when we'll see our full rewards. :-)

Best

Fernan - you're looking at this glass half empty and me, half full. Yep, in hind-sight Alma wasn't brilliant, but even KUPFEC was convinced with the project when Brent was in the 110s/120s. Most projects' IRRs would look good at that price point and no one really predicted oil to drop by as much as it did. And coupled with ENQ's cash flowing into AK, we know that didn't allow any cash to go into Alma till now. Based on their experience with Alma, I'm under no illusion that KUPFEC stump up any additional co-investment with ENQ, but looking fowards we do have BP as a reliable partner who see value in ENQ, and we have secured Magnus for a pittance.

As long as we continue to execute on our portfolio next year, that's a massive positive. Let's not forget that ENQ will meet production guidance range for 2018, and that's a positive after a couple of tough years. 2019 will unlock Magnus, AK and we'll be all the better for it.

My views...

Morning MO,

I've been in touch with IR at Enquest, and there were no numbers quoted, but IR did indicate that production has doubled from the low base on an average/ongoing basis. There would've been an initial flush (higher rate) when the new ESPs were turned on, but that they would settle down at a lower rate after the initial flush. This is information they've shared with other investors and is not material. I extrapolate this to an average rate between 4k to 6K bopd.

Going forwards, this is what we'll need to model in for Alma production. It's not great, but it is what it is. It's much rather that than the less than 2k bopd we were seeing recently.

Cheers

And it benefits BP massively as well, as they know that ENQ can decomm wells as a significantly lower cost than BP ever can, and hence they keep pushing these cash incentives out to ENQ, for them to take on these decomm activities.

Well explained, Jan.

L3 - as Jan said, all of this is clearly detailed in previous ARs/HY reports. ENQ's decomm costs are a lot lower than what's provisioned in the liabilities. I'm not sure how this can be confusing when it's fairly place to see if you read the ARs?

The EIA report was very bearish with an 8 million barrel crude build, the highest in 18 months, and Brent/WTI did fall initially, but are now up nearly a buck and a half from the lows. If this price action isn't bullish, then I don't know what is.

Brent 90s before November isn't an outlandish thought after all. And neither should 100 before the end of the year, even though Q4 is traditionally a weak quarter for oil prices.

Cheers, MO. We are on the cusp of a breakout over 45p, old shares price i.e,. :-) Here's hoping for another Brent run-up tomorrow.

I have received rights notification and tradeable rights in my Interactive Investor trading accounts - last response date is 16/10, but I've already opted-in. I still don't have anything from my IG trading accounts though - hopefully in the next day or two.

Summary - OGA production stats. July WI production up to 43.5 kbopd from 40 kbopd in June.

Thistle, Deveron, Don, Ythan - these fields are all back to normal from the low June production. Kraken is 30 kbopd in July, and that's down from 33 kbopd in June. Magnus is at 17.5 kbopd already in July. Alma was still at 2 kbopd in July - the key stats would be in September though, after the workover.

Kraken should be much better in August, based on numbers in the H1 report.

Yes, spot on. Cheers, MO.

L3 - you got that right..:-)

This is the July Stats link. I'm convinced that L3 got June mixed up with July..;-)

https://itportal.ogauthority.co.uk/pprslive/production-data?start_date=Jul+2018&production_type=OIL&production_unit=OIL_FIELD_UNITS&operator=ENQUEST+PLC&regulatory_jurisdiction=ANY

Hey MO - I don't think the July numbers are out yet. I've checked on a couple of browsers.

L3 - what July stats are you seeing for Magnus and Kraken, for starters??

L3 - I'm not seeing July PPRS data on the OGA site. Are you 100% sure?

Here's hoping too, MO. And we should get more details from ENQ in the next update in November.

We can rest a bit easy tonight.. ;-)

MO,

Alma/Galia started producing in October 2015 (November really) and the average production in the first year till Oct 16 from Alma was 7.5 kbopd and Galia was 2.3 kbopd. For the next year to October 17, Alma was 4.3 kbopd. All these are from the OGA stats.

Why should we model that Alma would start producing more than it ever did during the first year even. OK, we can see 4 months when Alma produced more than 12 kbopd, but would it really be producing that number so soon after the workover? I'll gladly take 5 kbopd, given that last year's average has been circa 2 kbopd.

I see what you're saying about the 40 day offload pointing to a circa 12 kbopd runrate, but you also pointed to the field life average of circa 6 kbopd and maybe that's a more sustainable output metric?

Fantastic news if we did end up with the 500k barrel offload.

Evening L3,

If you see the Magnus prospectus, you'll note that expected Magnus production for 2019 is 20 kboepd, and not 16. This is with the wells this year as well as the new ones that the RI will be funding. Net cash flow will be even better for ENQ - no doubt you'll rework those. And as you pointed out since there's no hedging permitted on the 75%, as spot prices keep going up, so will net cash flow. Keep those cash taps flowing. However, I can't see Trump keeping his gob shut for too long and I'm certain we'll hear from the numpty soon. 🤣

World number one, Dustin Johnson, I meant to say..

Hey MO,

That bearded man is the world number, Dustin Johnson. He missed many an easy 5 to 6 footers and makes that monstrous 60 footer and then makes long 40 footer. Such is golf.

And just noted that Brent has waltzed past 85 today.. who'd have thought, eh? The path of least resistance is up and so will be ENQ in the not too distant future. :-)

Best